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Value in Newcastle or Southampton Getting Relegated From EPL?

  • Which teams are currently battling to avoid relegation from the Premier League?
  • Who has the best chance to avoid the drop and how many points might it take?
  • Should you bet on Newcastle or Southampton falling into the bottom three?

The Premier League season just crossed the midway mark over the holiday season with each team having now played 20 games.

While Liverpool have pushed their lead over Man City to seven points at the top of the table, another battle is taking place near the bottom in a race to avoid relegation.

With several teams in danger of suffering the drop, where’s the best value in relegation betting?

Odds To Be Relegated From EPL

Team Odds at Bovada
Huddersfield Town -700
Burnley -275
Fulham -140
Cardiff City +100
Newcastle United +400
Southampton +500
Crystal Palace +1200
Brighton +4000
Bournemouth +12500
Watford +25000
Leicester City +25000
Everton +35000
West Ham +35000
Wolves +75000

On Their Way Down?

The three sides currently facing relegation are Burnley (15 points), Fulham (14), and Huddersfield (10).

Huddersfield looked destined for relegation last season. However, salvaging five points in their last five, coupled with a Swansea tailspin, resulted in the Terriers staying up.

It looks as if they only slightly delayed the inevitable. They are firmly rooted at the foot of the table with only 12 goals, two wins, and seven straight losses.

Unsurprisingly, goal-scoring has been an issue for each of Fulham, Burnley, and also Cardiff, as they average less than a goal per game. Travel has also not been kind, as between the three sides there are a combined two road wins.

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Burnley were the surprise package last season, finishing seventh despite scoring only 36 goals compared to the 39 they conceded.

Scoring issues have continued and they also have the fewest shots on target overall. Their defense has also been unable to bail them out, having already allowed 41 this season.

Despite having given up the most goals so far at 43, I’ll give Fulham the best chance to avoid the drop of the teams currently in the bottom three.

They are unbeaten in three and have been able to take points off the sides near them. This included a draw to Newcastle and win over Southampton.

Newcastle and Southampton Look To Avoid The Drop

Rafael Benítez and Newcastle will also have to sort out their offensive woes if they hope to escape relegation. The Magpies have been respectable defensively in only allowing 27 goals, but have the second-fewest goals scored in the Premier League with only 15.

Castle dug themselves a deep hole with only three draws in their opening ten matches. That form improved in their next ten matches with only three losses, which has lifted them to 15th with 18 points.

Newcastle has struggled to compete with higher spending clubs in the league. This has been a point of contention for Benítez, who was recently quoted saying it will be a “miracle” if Newcastle can finish above three teams in the table.

In 2016 the Magpies were relegated in 18th with 37 points, a total they are on pace to fall short of this season.

EPL Points of 18th Place Team Last 5 Years

Year Points
2018 33
2017 34
2016 37
2015 35
2014 33

Take a look at the chart above and you’ll see the lowest point total needed the past five seasons to finish 17th would have been 34.

The lowest point total needed the past five seasons to finish 17th would have been 34.

Premier League soccer at St. Mary’s Stadium has been a fixture in South East England for seven years. That streak may be up as Southampton FC currently have 15 points, putting them on pace to finish with 28.5.

Southampton had finished no lower than eighth in the table since 2013/14.

Last season the bottom fell out and they dropped to 17th with only 36 points. That was the lowest point total in their EPL history besides the 32 they achieved in a relegation-bound 2004/05 year.

Southampton gave the sack to manager Mark Hughes after only one win in 14 games and Ralph Hasenhüttl was brought in. The ex-RB Leipzig manager saw much success in Germany, but Southampton’s results have been mixed since with two wins and five losses.

Given each sides current struggles and their proximity to the drop zone, there is definitely value on betting Newcastle (+400) and/or Southampton (+500) to find themselves relegated to the Championship next season.

The post Value in Newcastle or Southampton Getting Relegated From EPL? appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.



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