Three rounds into the season and while it’s too early to make any grand, overarching conclusions about any team’s fortunes, it’s fair to say that the unbeaten Storm and Rabbitohs have been the most impressive sides.
Round 3 was the one that made you question just about every conclusion you reached in the opening two rounds with upsets, blowouts and plenty of points.
We weren’t too surprised the Storm picked up another big win to move to six points on the season but there were a few results that took us by surprise.
With all of that in mind we try to decipher the scores, scorers and stories from the weekend that was in the NRL.
1 – Underdogs Share the Spoils
After just one underdog picked up a victory last week the unfancied bunch bounced back this weekend going 4-4 against the spread.
Things started strongly with the Dragons upset win on Thursday but the best day of the weekend was Sunday as both the Bulldogs and Titans covered the line in their games.
It helped that the Titans were double digit underdogs but they played the Rabbitohs close and actually were the first team to beat them with the handicap.
Next weekend looks like it could be a good one for the underdogs with six of the eight games opening up with a line of less than six points including three by 1.5 points so if you see some early value something you expect to move, no harm in jumping on it early.
2 – Over the Rabbitohs
Three rounds is still just a little bit too early to make any grand proclamations but one trend is definitely jumping out already, the Rabbitohs and the over has been a strong play.
All three weeks they have won in the head to head market, defeating the Roosters, Dragons and now Titans, all while averaging over 29 points scored per page.
The points line corrected last week to 45.5 expecting a big win over the Titans but has come back down under 40 for next week’s cash with Manly.
Assuming the Rabbitohs continue along their pattern and score in the high 20’s, Many would just need two tries to cover that early points line and with the Rabbitohs giving up 18 points per game, it’s certainly likely.
3 – The Blowouts Continue
The round started off with an absolute blockbuster ending as the Dragons picked up a win on a last second field goal from Corey Norman.
Unfortunately from an excitement perspective, that was the only close finish of the weekend as every game was decided by two or more scores.
Five of the other seven games were won by double digits with Manly recording the biggest win of the weekend beating the Warriors by 34 points in Christchurch.
Remarkably, Manly went into that game as a 3.5 point underdog, making it the biggest margin for an underdog this season, beating the Raiders 21 point win in Round 1.
While it did not match the six double digit wins recorded in the opening two rounds it does suggest a trend emerging that if you like a team to win, taking them to win big might be a good value add option.
4 – Bulldogs Bounce Back
We know that there’s no such thing as a 100% lock when it comes to sport, but you could be forgiven for thinking that, based on the opening round of results, the Tigers would absolutely demolish the Bulldogs at Campbelltown Sunday afternoon.
That, as they say, is why they play the games as a quickfire blitz from the Bulldogs in the closing stages of the first half set up a big win for the boys from Bankstown.
After a rough start to the season the Bulldogs gave the Canterbury faithful some signs of hope going forward and showing they might offer good value as an underdog if the matchup is right.
Up next is a tough task against the Storm but it’s always better going into these games with a bit of confidence from a win as opposed to three straight losses.
5 – The Next Big Thing
As is always the case with this last lesson, we look ahead to the most intriguing game of next weekend and what takeaways we can put to use in that game.
The Broncos will visit the Roosters at the SCG on Thursday night in a game that could very well go down to the wire.
Brisbane will want to bounce back from a disappointing loss to the Dragons on Thursday night but they have been strong away from home, winning 14 of their last 24.
The Roosters won’t want to lie down though, they ended the Eels perfect start on the weekend and have shown plenty of point scoring ability.
It will be the second time the Broncos are underdogs this season as a part of a brutal stretch to kick off 2019 while the Roosters will be favoured for the fourth week in a row.
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