- Alabama is getting 92% of the handle against Auburn in Week 14
- The Crimson Tide need a statement win to increase their playoff chances
- Is Alabama a good bet to cover the spread in the 2019 Iron Bowl?
No. 5 Alabama is being listed as 3.5-point favorites at No. 15 Auburn in the 2019 Iron Bowl (Saturday, November 30th).
The one-loss Crimson Tide are fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive, while 8-3 Auburn will look to play spoiler and improve their bowl prospects.
Alabama is reportedly seeing a very large amount of the betting handle and a solid amount of total bets at BookMaker.eu.
Why are bettors confident Alabama will cover the spread? Should you bet the Crimson Tide ATS in the Alabama vs Auburn odds?
Alabama vs Auburn Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Handle at BookMaker.eu |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama (#5) | -3.5 (-105) | -170 | 92.0% |
| Auburn (#15) | +3.5 (-115) | +148 | 8.0% |
Odds taken Nov. 29
Betting Breakdown
BookMaker.eu reports that Alabama is receiving an overwhelming 92% of the handle and 76% of all bets at their sportsbook.
Bettors are confident in the Crimson Tide due to their elite offense and the spunk they showed coming back against No.1 LSU in Week 11, ultimately falling 46-41 despite trailing 33-13 at halftime.
Alabama currently ranks seventh nationally in total offense and gave the Tigers a great fight the narrow setback.
Bettors also know that Alabama needs a statement win to increase its odds of making the playoff. The Crimson Tide have made five straight CFP appearances and will be determined to continue the streak this year.
While the Iron Bowl rivalry comes with its own implicit motivation, Bama has a lot more at stake than the Tigers.
Mac Jones Up For The Challenge
A big reason Alabama isn’t favored by more in this game is due to a season-ending injury to star QB Tua Tagovailoa. Tua’s backup, Mac Jones, has been impressive in his first two starts against Arkansas and Western Carolina, completing 28-of-34 passes for 510 yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions.
Who….? Mac Jones. pic.twitter.com/hLdyLuckyJ
— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) November 23, 2019
Although Auburn has the 14th-ranked defense in the nation, Alabama has an elite group of receivers led by Jerry Jeudy and DeVonta Smith who can score on strong defensive teams. The Tide rank third in passing offense and have put up a combined 114 points in two full games without Tagovailoa this season.
While Jones has yet to face tough competition, he doesn’t need to have the game of his life for Alabama to win. As long as he builds on his strong recent play, the Crimson Tide have enough talented at the skill positions to carry the team. This isn’t even mentioning the red-hot Najee Harris, who has exploded for nine touchdowns on the ground in his last five games.
Auburn vs Top 25 Teams
Bettors aren’t confident in Auburn covering the spread because the Tigers haven’t performed well against ranked teams this season. They’ve averaged just 16 points in losses to Florida, LSU, and Georgia, and don’t have the type of weapons on offense to keep pace with elite teams.
ELI WOLF with the TD!!
Georgia 21 // Auburn 0 #UGAvsAU #GoDawgs #ATD pic.twitter.com/zpf2gO0spo
— Georgia Football (@GeorgiaFootball) November 16, 2019
Freshman QB Bo Nix is having a good season for the Tigers, but he’s struggled against quality competition. He’s completed just 49.7 percent of his passes against top-25 teams and thrown six interceptions in those contests. The freshman is yet to prove he can get the job done against a strong defense.
Head-to-Head History
Alabama has won four of the last five meetings with Auburn, including a convincing 52-21 victory in Tuscaloosa last season. Tagovailoa threw five touchdowns passes in that game, and while he won’t be playing this time around, all four of Alabama’s top receivers from that game will be in action Saturday.
Alabama has had success against Auburn in the past because the Tigers offense hasn’t been able to keep up with the Crimson Tide’s elite talent. We’ve seen more of the same struggles from Auburn this season, including a recent loss to Georgia where they managed just 14 points, while Jake Fromm and De’Andre Swift led the Bulldogs to victory.
Betting Advice
Bettors are behind the Crimson Tide for this game because they know the team doesn’t need Tagovailoa to win. Auburn’s offense has struggled to score against top teams, and Alabama is another powerhouse with great talent on both sides of the ball, even if the defense is down compare to recent years.
The Crimson Tide are playing for much more on Saturday and have all the tools to score on Auburn’s defense and keep the Tigers mediocre offense in check. Expect Mac Jones to have another big game, utilizing Bama’s experienced talent up to cover the spread.
Pick: Alabama -3.5 (-105)
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