- Sportsbooks have updated the odds to win the 2020 AAC conference title
- Memphis captured the conference championship last year, defeating Cincinnati 29-24 in the title game
- The Bearcats could be a great value play this season thanks to the dynamic duo of head coach Luke Fickell and star quarterback Desmond Ridder
AAC football kicks off this Saturday, Sep. 5th, and it’s the perfect time to make a futures bet.
UCF Knights, Memphis Tigers, and Cincinnati Bearcats are the three favorites to win the conference title. The Tigers are the defending champions and are getting love from the oddsmakers, but there may be a smarter bet on the board.
AAC Championship Winner 2020
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| UCF | +130 |
| Memphis | +230 |
| Cincinnati | +400 |
| Houston | +1400 |
| Navy | +1400 |
| SMU | +1400 |
| South Florida | +4000 |
| Temple | +4000 |
| Tulane | +4000 |
| East Carolina | +5000 |
| Tulsa | +5000 |
Odds as of August 31st.
Here’s a breakdown of all three teams, as well as my pick to click in the conference this year.
Memphis Tigers Lose RB Kenny Gainwell
Memphis sits second behind UCF in the Conference Championship odds despite the loss of star running back Kenny Gainwell. He was the engine that drove the Tigers’ offense last season and was expected to do the same this year. Gainwell opted out of the season due to concerns over COVID-19. It’s a decision that cannot be criticized, but the fact remains, this is a devastating blow to the team’s championship hopes.
This may not be as big as Ja’Marr Chase leaving LSU bu,t it’s not far off.
"I got you, bro."
Memphis RB Kenny Gainwell still holds true to those words he said to his big brother Curtis Jr. in the ICU after Curtis needed brain surgery from an improbable stroke.
(📍 @exxonmobil) pic.twitter.com/xZfrH8Gr29
— ESPN (@espn) November 2, 2019
Gainwell was the only FBS player with more than 1,000 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards last season. He finished the year with 2,069 total yards and 16 touchdowns. ESPN’s Todd McShay has Gainwell ranked as the fifth-best running back prospect in the 2021 NFL draft.
The Tigers have other talent but I am crossing them off my list, especially at the odds that are being offered. Losing such a key component to the offense will be too much to overcome, especially with the decision happening so close to the beginning of the season.
Can QB Dillion Gabriel Lead UCF to a Title?
Dillon Gabriel enters his second season as the starting quarterback for UCF. He was solid last season compiling 3,653 passing yards with 29 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Solid if not spectacular seems to be a theme for the Knights. My problem with Gabriel is his one-dimensional talent as a pocket passer. He tallied only 78 yards on the ground last year, proving he really only runs when forced to do so. He isn’t a problem, but he likely isn’t going to win you a championship on his own, either.
See that look in our eyes? We want it all 😤 pic.twitter.com/T2yFpmbUeK
— UCF Football 😷 (@UCF_Football) August 30, 2020
Looking at the run game, it’s more of the same theme: solid but not spectacular. Otis Anderson and Greg McCrae hold the top spots on the depth chart. Then it’s former QB transfer RJ Harvey, Bentavious Thompson, and Damarius Good. You know what it means when you can find in-depth reports on five different backs during training camp? The coaching staff isn’t in love with any of them. You shouldn’t be either.
I expect UCF will rack up wins this year – as usual – but they aren’t deserving of +130 to win the 2020 AAC title.
Luke Fickell Aiming for First Title at Cincinnati
Cincinnati head coach Luke Fickell is fresh off signing a well-deserved extension. The deal runs through the 2026 season and bumps his salary from $2.3 million per year to $3.4 million. How did he earn the big pay day? Consecutive 11-win seasons with the Bearcats while compiling a 13-3 record in conference. Fickell led Cincinnati to an appearance in the conference championship game last year and I expect a repeat visit in 2020.
Hey @TheRock, we already have your @UnderArmour. If you have any eligibility left I think @CoachFick could find a spot for you. 😉 #Bearcats https://t.co/Zzci1iyiPS pic.twitter.com/bEYFuWQZJL
— Cincinnati Bearcats (@GoBEARCATS) August 25, 2020
Quarterback Desmond Ridder is the Bearcats biggest weapon. He captured the AAC rookie of the year award after racking up 2,164 passing yards, 650 rushing yards and 23 total touchdowns as a freshman. I expect Ridder to take a giant leap forward in year two in the program. The concerns I have about Gabriel being too one dimensional aren’t an issue here. Ridder can beat you with his arm or his legs. Fickell may be an expert on the defensive side of the ball but he was at Ohio State under Urban Meyer alongside offensive guru Tom Herman. He’ll be able to unlock the greatness in Ridder and ride his skills to a big season for Cincinnati.
Bet the Bearcats to Win the Title at +400
You’ll notice a large drop off in the odds after the three favorites and for good reason. There are some reasons to like Houston, Navy, and SMU, but not enough to love any of them. Expect the conference champion to come from the group of UCF, Memphis, and Cincinnati. For my money, I think the Bearcats make it back to the championship game again this season but come away with a victory this time around.
The Pick: Cincinnati Bearcats (+400)
The post Updated AAC Championship Odds and Picks Ahead of Week 1: UCF, Memphis & Cincinnati Still Favorites appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.
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