Bills Now Solo Favorites in Latest Super Bowl Odds; Titans, Saints and Patriots Among Biggest Risers
- The Bills improved to 5-2 with a convincing win over the Dolphins
- Tennessee, New Orleans and New England all pulled off upsets in Week 8
- Check out the updated Super Bowl odds after Sunday’s games
The Buffalo Bills took care of business in Week 8, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers fell short on the road. That was enough for oddsmakers to flip flop the two teams in the NFL futures market. The 5-2 Buffalo Bills now own the shortest championship price tag of any team in football, followed closely by the 6-2 Bucs, and the 7-1 LA Rams.
2022 Super Bowl Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +500 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +550 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +750 |
| Green Bay Packers | +950 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1000 |
| Arizona Cardinals | +1100 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +1200 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +1300 |
| Tennessee Titans | +1500 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +2500 |
| New Orleans Saints | +3000 |
| Cleveland Browns | +3100 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +3500 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +3500 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +4400 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +5500 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +5500 |
| New England Patriots | +6500 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +7500 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +12000 |
| Denver Broncos | +12000 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +17000 |
| Carolina Panthers | +18000 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +34000 |
| Chicago Bears | +40000 |
| Miami Dolphins | +55000 |
| New York Giants | +100000 |
| Detroit Lions | +100000 |
| New York Jets | +100000 |
| Washington Football Team | +100000 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +100000 |
| Houston Texans | +100000 |
*Odds taken on October 31st from FanDuel.
Buffalo’s Super Bowl Odds were shortened from +550 to +500, while Tampa Bay’s price tag went from +500 to +550. Despite their position atop the odds board, the Bills aren’t even the AFC’s number one seed. That honor belongs to the Titans, who defeated Buffalo in a wild Monday Night Football game back in Week 6.
The Bills Will Make You Want to Shout
The Bills had their bye week following that loss in Nashville, and were rusty for the first half of Sunday’s game versus the Miami Dolphins. Buffalo scored just 3 points in the opening 30 minutes, but rebounded in the second half by scoring 23 points, including 14 unanswered to give themselves a comfortable cushion.
BILLS WIN ‼️#MIAvsBUF | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/8Avu4hfDjZ
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) October 31, 2021
Josh Allen overcame a slow start to throw two touchdown passes, while running for another score, giving him 28 rushing TD in his first 50 starts. The only other QB to accomplish that feat? None other than Cam Newton.
Milestone ✅ – @JoshAllenQB @BuffaloBills | #BillsMafia | #MIAvsBUF
🤝 @NorthShoreWeb pic.twitter.com/5t1DwOLMsI
— Pro Football Hall of Fame (@ProFootballHOF) October 31, 2021
Once again however, it was the Buffalo defense that stole the show. The Bills held Miami to 262 total yards, while forcing two turnovers and sacking Tua Tagovailoa twice. Buffalo is the number one ranked defense per DVOA, and entered the week with Pro Football Focus’ top coverage grade.
With upcoming games against Jacksonville, the New York Jets, and Indianapolis, we shouldn’t be surprised if the Bills’ championship price is shortened even further by the time they get finished racking up three more wins. If you like Buffalo act now, because you may not see a better number for quite some time.
Titan Up
Tennessee meanwhile, survived a thrilling back-and-forth overtime affair at the Colts on Sunday, moving them to a conference best 6-2. The Titans latest victory gives them a seemingly insurmountable lead in the AFC South, as no other divisional opponent has more than three wins.
OT W 🙌🏽 #TENvsIND pic.twitter.com/FIPq5qGgMC
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) October 31, 2021
Tennessee was able to sneak past its rival without much help from Derrick Henry. The two-time reigning rushing champ was limited to just 68 total yards on 28 carries.
With Julio Jones out, A.J. Brown carried the Titans offense. Brown racked up 10 catches for 155 yards and a score, and helped set up the game-winning field goal with a key 13-yard reception in OT.
"Why be a king, when you can be a God.
-Eminem"
-A.J. Brownpic.twitter.com/JsdbV4sA8d
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 31, 2021
Tennessee’s Super Bowl odds were shortened from +1800 to +1500 following the victory, and while that may seem like a good bet, the advanced metrics tell a different story.
The Titans entered the week ranked 18th in pass defense DVOA, and 25th against the run. Their pass rush grades out as the league’s sixth worst per PFF, while their top-two corners are injured. Not surprisingly, they’ve allowed at least 27 points in five of eight contests, yielding 30 or more four times.
Their offense is good, not great (13th per DVOA), and it simply wouldn’t be wise to invest a team with such a leaky defense.
Is New Orleans Or New England Worth Buying?
The two teams that saw the biggest change to their championship price tags were the New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots. Both teams pulled off impressive upsets in Week 8, with the Saints dropping the Buccaneers for the third time in four tries during the Tom Brady era, and the Pats taking down Justin Herbert and the Chargers for a second straight season.
New Orleans’ Super Bowl odds were shortened from +4000 to +3000, but it could be a moot point given they lost starting QB Jameis Winston. The former number one overall pick left the game with a knee injury, and was on crutches after the contest.
#Saints coach Sean Payton describes the knee injury for QB Jameis Winston as “significant.” A potentially season-ending situation for the starter.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 1, 2021
That leaves the Saints, who are already devoid of offensive talent aside from Alvin Kamara, with Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill as quarterback options. Siemian played well in relief on Sunday, but is the definition of a journeyman back-up. Hill meanwhile, hasn’t played since Week 5 due to a concussion, but neither is capable of leading a team to the Super Bowl.
The Pats on the other hand, are at least intriguing. Mac Jones looks like the most polished rookie QB in the 2021 class, and has led New England to three wins in his last four outings. Their latest victory shortened their Super Bowl odds from +10000 to +6500, but that price still shows some value given how battle-tested they are.
Mac Jones DIME 🎯
pic.twitter.com/uPNY6q21Py— PFF (@PFF) October 31, 2021
Don’t forget the Patriots came within a missed field goal in the final minute of upsetting Tampa Bay as well, and blew a fourth quarter lead versus Dallas before falling in overtime. If either one of those games had gone their way, we would be talking about Bill Belichick’s squad in a much different light.
Nobody wants to talk abaht it ahtside of New England BUT… the Patriots just went INTO LA and beat The Chargers
The Chargers were supposed to be this young new dominant force… and the Old Ass Guard said pic.twitter.com/3VZnafQOdD
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) October 31, 2021
Speaking of Belichick, there’s something to be said about backing a longshot that boasts the greatest coach of all-time. Six of New England’s final eight contests are versus teams with a .500 record or worse, giving the Pats an excellent chance to make the postseason.
Is New England going to win it all? Probably not, but if you bet them to win the Super Bowl now, you can use that ticket to create some profitable hedging opportunities if they make the playoffs.
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