- Porto and Benfica meet in O Clássico on December, 30th, 2021
- Both teams are chasing Sporting in the Primeira Liga title race
- Read below for the latest odds, betting preview and prediction
The O Clássico is one of the fiercest rivalries in world football. Porto and Benfica meet for the second time this season on December, 30th, at the Estádio do Dragão. The Dragões beat their Lisbon-based foes in the Taça de Portugal just a week ago, though both league meetings ended in a draw in 2020-21.
Unbeaten in the league this season, Porto holds a four-point advantage over Benfica in the Primeira Liga table. Both are pursuing Sporting, who have 44 points from their 16 matches. Porto can go top with a victory due to their superior goal difference, while Benfica will finish Round 16 in third regardless of the result on Thursday.
Porto is unbeaten in 43 league matches, and has won all seven of its home league outings this term. They are odds on-favorites for O Clássico despite Benfica being on a run of 13 wins in 14 road away matches.
Porto vs Benfica Odds
| Matchup | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Porto vs Benfica | POR -1 (+155) | BEN +1 (-190) | POR -124 | BEN +295 | DRAW +270 | Ov 2.5 (-132) | Un 2.5 (+106) |
Odds as of Dec 30 at Barstool Sportsbook
Injury News
Fabio Cardoso and Chancel Mbemba are in line to start in central defense for Porto with Pepe and Ivan Marcano sidelined. They are more than able deputies for the veteran duo. Marcano hasn’t played since October, and Porto has kept clean sheets in all of their matches since Pepe suffered an injury earlier this month.
Evanilson was sent off in the cup match last time out and after testing positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday, his absence likely opens the door for Toni Martinez to get the start. Luis Diaz also finds himself on the COVID list.
Grimaldo in his post-game interview: “This club and the team is much bigger than this. I want to apologize to the fans for this performance. Benfica gives us everything…and we need to turn around this situation.”
That’s the response I’ve been waiting for. Now show it in games.
— Benfiquista Americano (@BenfiquistaUm) December 23, 2021
Selection is trickier for Benfica. The Águias are missing a raft of first team players, including Darwin Nunez, who suffered an injury against Porto just seven days ago. Left wing-back Alejandro Grimaldo is integral to Benfica’s balance, but a positive COVID-19 test has ruled him out of this one. Like Evanilson, Nicolas Otamendi was sent off in the cup meeting, resulting in a suspension here.
Benfica have parted ways with Jorge Jesus, too. Nelson Verissimo is in caretaker charge, but he’s expected to stick with the back three set up that they have played for the majority of this campaign.
Benfica’s Struggles
Although Jesus led Benfica to Champions League progression and kept them in the title race, he was reportedly losing the dressing room. The defeats to Sporting in the league and Porto in the cup were significant, particularly after finishing third last season. Able to comprehensively beat many of the league’s weaker teams, it’s the matches between the big three that define their season.
OFFICIAL: Jorge Jesus has agreed to part ways with the club. Nélson Veríssimo will be the new senior team manager until the end of the season. pic.twitter.com/Mp0W48g0qm
— Benfica Youth (@SLBenficaYouth) December 28, 2021
Benfica will be hoping for a new manager bounce. There are good signs with the effectiveness of their attack, and the underlying numbers have been strong all season. Perhaps removing Jesus is all it takes for a more complete team performance, even if they are yet to appoint a new permanent manager.
Expected goals paint a similar picture for both Porto and Benfica this term. Benfica’s efforts in the Champions League show they can deliver under pressure, but their task on Thursday is made all the trickier by the lengthy list of absentees.
Porto vs Benfica Primeira Liga Statistics
| 2nd | Position | 3rd |
| 38 | Goals scored | 46 |
| 64.9% | Average possession | 64.3% |
| 37 yellows, 2 reds | Cards | 28 yellows, 1 red |
| 17.9 | Shots per match | 14.3 |
| 64% | Shots inside the area | 62% |
| 22.1 | Net expected goals | 20.7 |
Back the Hosts
These teams are pretty even across the season to date. Benfica will likely enjoy an improvement in performance with Jesus no longer in the dugout, but Grimaldo, Nunez and Otamendi are key players.
O OTAMENDI A AGARRAR A CARA AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAH pic.twitter.com/i2utTcT9sQ
— Taremito (@rricardo__) December 24, 2021
Porto has been rock solid at the back even without Marcano and Pepe. Benfica failed to score when these teams met a week ago despite Porto playing the entire second half with 10 men.
It’s easy to talk yourself into the -1 handicap with Porto at plus odds. We’ll stick with the moneyline for this one, though.
Pick: Porto moneyline (-124)
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