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Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal Odds & Prediction – French Open Quarterfinals

  • Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal meet for the 59th time in the French Open quarterfinals Tuesday
  • It’s the night-session match, set for May 31 scheduled for 3pm ET
  • Djokovic, the fresher of the two, is favoured over Nadal on the Mallorcan’s favorite court – we break it down

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal meet again, in their tennis dotage and through some bad draw luck, only in the quarterfinals of the French Open this year.

Djokovic vs Nadal Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) -4.5 (-110) -250 O 36.5 (-130)
[5] Rafael Nadal (ESP) +4.5 (-120) +190 U 36.5 (+100)

Odds as of May 30 at Caesars Sportsbook

After he didn’t defend his title in Rome, Nadal dropped to No. 5 in the rankings.

That meant a 25% chance of meeting each of the top four seeds in the quarterfinals. This was arguably the worst-case scenario.

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Djokovic was the favorite coming into the tournament. But if you expected Nadal to be right behind him, you were wrong; Carlos Alcaraz took the second spot.

The winner plays the winner of Alexander Zverev vs Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals.

Djokovic Building Towards No. 21

If Djokovic has missed far too much tennis this season because of his unvaccinated status, he knows very well how to build towards a major.

His start to the clay season, with few matches as he shook off the rust, wasn’t optimal.

But he got better and better with each tournament. And so far, he looks like the defending French Open champion.

Djokovic has won all 12 of his sets; in only one (the third and final set against Alex Molcan in the second round, which went to a tiebreak) did he drop more than three games. He has been dominant.

Djokovic vs Nadal Head-to-Head

Novak Djokovic
VS
Rafael Nadal
35 (May 22, 1987) Age 35 (June 3, 2022)
Belgrade, Serbia Birthplace Manacor, Mallorca
6-2 Height 6-1
87 Career ATP Singles Titles 91
No. 1 (July 4, 2011) Career High Ranking No. 1 (Aug. 18,2008)
No. 1 Current Ranking No. 5
$156,136,601 Career Prize Money $128,337,592
16-4 2022 Won/Loss record 27-3
30 Career Head to Head 28

All-Time Rivalry a Recent Slam Mismatch

Djokovic holds a 30-28 all-time head-to-head record against his great rival. But at the majors, in recent years, it has been one-way traffic for Djokovic.

Overall, it’s 9-8 for Nadal. But Djokovic has won five of their last six meetings in majors.

 

That nine of those 17 Slam meetings came in Paris, in Nadal’s house, and the record is still that close is a tribute to Djokovic’s proficiency on every surface.

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Djokovic vs Nadal Grand Slam Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2021 French Open (SF) Outdoor Clay 3-6, 6-3, 7-6 (4), 6-2 Djokovic
2020 French Open (F) Outdoor Clay 6-0, 6-2, 7-5 Nadal
2019 Australian Open (F) Outdoor Hard 6-3, 6-2, 6-3 Djokovic
2018 Wimbledon (SF) Grass 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 (9), 3-6, 10-8 Djokovic
2015 French Open (QF) Outdoor Clay 7-5, 6-3, 6-1 Djokovic
2014 French Open (F) Outdoor Clay 3-6, 7-5, 6-2, 6-4 Djokovic
2013 US Open (F) Outdoor Hard 6-2, 3-6, 6-4, 6-1 Nadal
2013 French Open (SF) Outdoor Clay 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 6-7 (3), 9-7 Nadal
2012 French Open (F) Outdoor Clay 6-4, 6-3, 2-6, 7-5 Nadal
2012 Australian Open (F) Outdoor Hard 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7 (5), 7-5 Djokovic
2011 US Open (F) Outdoor Hard 6-2, 6-4, 6-7 (3), 6-1 Djokovic
2011 Wimbledon (F) Grass 6-4, 6-1, 1-6, 6-3 Djokovic
2010 US Open (F) Outdoor Hard 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2 Nadal
2008 French Open (SF) Outdoor Clay 6-4, 6-2, 7-6 (3) Nadal
2007 Wimbledon (SF) Grass 3-6, 6-1, 4-1, retd Nadal
2007 French Open (QF) Outdoor Clay 7-5, 6-4, 6-2 Nadal
2006 French Open (QF) Outdoor Clay 6-4, 6-4, retd Nadal

Match vs Auger-Aliassime Took Toll

It was a pretty hectic 24 hours for Nadal, as he was able to get to the Stade de France across the city and see, in person for the first time, his beloved Real Madrid play in the Champions League final. And win.

He skipped the celebration, because he had a fourth-round match against 21-year-old Canadian Félix Auger-Aliassime the next day. But just getting there was an exhausting hassle.

The four hours and 20 minutes and five sets he spent on court Sunday before he finally put away the young Canadian was even more exhausting.

But more than that, he’s a bit underdone after healing up a rib stress fracture in the spring. And he’s a player who has always thrived on volume.

More than that, he’s about to be 36. He’s already talking about never knowing if his next match will be his final one at Roland Garros.

Nadal Will Leave it All on Court

The night match – not Nadal’s favorite – will mean his ball bounces lower than he’d like. And the weather is very cool in Paris this week.

But he managed to manhandle Djokovic in the 2020 final, in mid-October when it was considerably colder.

Nadal is not playing at that level this week. And Djokovic is near his optimal level.

You never want to count Nadal out; too many times, he finds a way. But this is Djokovic – a different league, and the first time two players with 20 or more Grand Slam titles will square off.

You want it to be an epic. It’s not setting up as one.

Best Bet: Djokovic in Four Sets (+310)

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