- Michigan State is a 22.5-point favorite over Western Michigan on Friday, September 2nd at 7pm ET at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan
- The Broncos went 8-5 last season, ranking 12th nationally in total offense and first in the MAC in total defense
- Read below for Western Michigan vs Michigan State odds, analysis and a betting prediction
Week 0 in college football is kind of like an appetizer at your favorite restaurant. It temporarily fills you up, but when it’s done you’re left wanting something bigger and better. Well, fear not, because the main course is about to be served in the form of a jam-packed Week 1 schedule.
The slate is loaded with intriguing matchups, including one that’s taking place under the Friday night lights. #15 Michigan State hosts Western Michigan, and despite the lopsided spread, this game profiles to be much closer than the number posted in the college football lines.
Western Michigan vs #15 Michigan State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Michigan Broncos | +22.5 (-110) | +1100 | O 54.5 (-110) |
| Michigan State Spartans | -22.5 (-110) | -2100 | U 54.5 (-110) |
Odds as of August 31st at Barstool Sportsbook.
The Spartans are currently a 22.5-point favorite, in a contest that features a total of 54.5. Kickoff is scheduled for just after 7pm ET at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage nationwide.
Western Michigan Betting Analysis
Michigan State State would be wise not to take the Broncos lightly. Western Michigan boasted the 12th ranked offense in the country last season, averaging 32.5 points per game. They put together their seventh winning season in the last eight years, culminating with a rout of Nevada in the Quick Lane Bowl.
The offense returns key pieces in 2022, but lost leading receiver Skyy Moore to the NFL and will be inexperienced at the most important position in sports. A pair of redshirt freshmen in Jake Salopek and Mareyohn Hrabowski are expected to share QB snaps, but threw a total of only six passes between them last season
Sorry. It’s week one. You know how it is. pic.twitter.com/rBm9zSRAck
— Western Michigan Football (@WMU_Football) August 31, 2022
With the QB situation murky, expect the Broncos’ two-headed monster in the backfield to take charge. Running backs Sean Tyler and La’Darius Jefferson rushed for nearly 2,000 yards and 19 TD in 2021, and are poised for even bigger numbers this year.
Defensively, Western Michigan returns a handful of starters from their front seven, including their top-three linebackers. They led the MAC in total defense last season, ranked second in the nation in third down stops and had plenty of success generating sacks.
If there’s a weakness, it’s their run defense. The Broncos allowed 4.4 yards per carry in 2021, but fortunately for them, Michigan State lost their best runner from last season to the NFL.
Michigan State Betting Analysis
With Kenneth Walker gone, transfers Jake Broussard and Jalen Berger will shoulder the rushing load. Neither was very productive in 2021, but the offensive line appears to be in good shape with three returning starters.
The quarterback position is solidified with Payton Thorne under center, fresh off a 3,240-yard, 27 TD season. Number one target and best friend Jayden Reed returns, and the duo makes up one of the best pairings in the country. The offense averaged 32 points per game last season, leading the Spartans to an 11-2 record.
Surprise guest on the @sd4lshow last week‼️ @payton15thorne joined @JaydenReed5 @woodwardsports #SD4L #GoGreen pic.twitter.com/kzRYlVH3k0
— The SD4L Show (@sd4lshow) August 30, 2022
Defensively, however, big improvements are needed. Michigan State was historically bad in 2021 defending the pass, allowing 325 yards through the air per game. Duke was the only other program to yield over 300 passing yards per outing, while the Spartans allowed 456 more passing yards than any other school.
Bringing in former Georgia recruit Ameer Speed Sr. should help, but we shouldn’t expect one player to fix the enormous problem.
Last year, the pass rush did all it could to help take pressure away from the secondary, racking up 42 sacks. Most of the key players along the defensive line are back, and that group will need to replicate their 2021 success for the Spartans to have any chance of eclipsing their projection in the CFB win totals odds.
Western Michigan vs Michigan State Pick
Michigan State is 11-0 all-time versus Western Michigan, taking the last meeting 51-17 back in 2019. On paper, this may seem like a mismatch, but don’t sleep on the underdog here.
Everyday is a great day to be out on the gridiron#LetsRide pic.twitter.com/JtKcHz5eLG
— Western Michigan Football (@WMU_Football) August 22, 2022
The Broncos are extremely well-coached and talented on both sides of the ball. Their running game can control the clock much like it did last season. Western Michigan’s average time of possession was 35:17 minutes per game in 2021, compared to 24:12 for its opponents.
The Broncos are also exceptional on third downs on both sides of the ball. They converted 46% of their third downs last season while limiting opponents to a 27% conversion rate.
It doesn’t appear that the Spartans did enough to fix a horrendous pass defense, and if Western Michigan can get competent QB play out of Salopek and Hrabowski, they should be able to keep this game close.
Pick: Western Michigan +22.5 (-110)
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