- The Premier League returns for Week 9 on Saturday and Sunday
- Some teams haven’t played for almost a month following the Queen’s death and the international break
- Read below for the latest odds and our Premier League picks for Week 9 here
An already disjointed Premier League season faced further disruption over the last few weeks with fixtures postponed following the Queen’s death. An international break followed, meaning some teams haven’t played since September 3. This weekend sees the resumption of the campaign, which will be uninterrupted until domestic football stops for the World Cup in mid-November.
The lengthy hiatus has allowed managers to work extensively with their squads, and in some cases, given time for newly appointed coaches to imprint their tactics. It isn’t quite a blank slate, but this gap between matches creates a new factor to consider when analyzing Premier League odds.
EPL Odds Week 9
| Matchup | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal vs Tottenham | +105 | +270 | +250 |
| Bournemouth vs Brentford | +240 | +245 | +117 |
| Crystal Palace vs Chelsea | +350 | +260 | -120 |
| Fulham vs Newcastle United | +210 | +245 | +135 |
| Liverpool vs Brighton | -278 | +440 | +750 |
| Southampton vs Everton | +114 | +245 | +250 |
| West Ham vs Wolves | -110 | +255 | +320 |
| Manchester City vs Manchester United | -278 | +460 | +700 |
| Leeds vs Aston Villa | +135 | +250 | +205 |
| Leicester City vs Nottingham Forest | -136 | +350 | +310 |
Odds as of Sep 30 at Barstool Sportsbook. If you’ve already signed up at Barstool, also check out this DraftKings Sportsbook Promo Code to bet on the EPL this weekend
Liverpool and Manchester City are the two biggest favorites this weekend, with both priced at -278 on the moneyline against Brighton and Manchester United respectively. Goals are expected in the north London derby with -148 on over 2.5, and the same goes for Monday’s Midlands clash between Leicester and Nottingham Forest with the over priced at -155.
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Bournemouth vs Brentford Prediction
The decision to replace Scott Parker wasn’t as premature as many believed. Bournemouth have gone three matches unbeaten under interim manager Gary O’Neil and they will fancy their chances at extending that run this weekend. Brentford have put in some good performances this term, but they have just one win in five league matches after a heavy defeat to Arsenal last time out.
Despite their progress, Bournemouth have the worst expected goal difference per 90 in the Premier League. Brentford are in the top half by that metric. This is still a pretty small sample at this stage, but it reflects a gap between the two teams. The home team remains desperately short on attacking talent, while Brentford’s attack has been fluent this term, with Ivan Toney in a superb spell of form.
📅 Most Premier League goal involvements in 2022:
1️⃣ 𝗛𝗮𝗿𝗿𝘆 𝗞𝗮𝗻𝗲 – 𝟮𝟴
2️⃣ Kevin De Bruyne – 24
3️⃣ 𝗦𝗼𝗻 𝗛𝗲𝘂𝗻𝗴-𝗠𝗶𝗻 – 𝟮𝟰
4️⃣ Ivan Toney – 18
5️⃣ 𝗗𝗲𝗷𝗮𝗻 𝗞𝘂𝗹𝘂𝘀𝗲𝘃𝘀𝗸𝗶 – 𝟭𝟳— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) September 29, 2022
Brentford have been hard to beat, losing just twice in seven league matches. Toney is a nuisance for any back line, and he should enjoy success against this Bournemouth defense. Pairing the visitors to avoid defeat with an anytime Toney goal gets us a great price in our Premier League picks.
- Pick: Brentford to win or draw and Ivan Toney to score (+180)
Fulham vs Newcastle Prediction
For all the hype around Newcastle heading into this season, they are three points behind Fulham ahead of their Saturday trip to Craven Cottage. Fulham have started the season strongly under Marco Silva, and pulled off a dramatic win away to Nottingham Forest last time out.
Injuries are a major factor here. Manor Solomon and Harry Wilson are out for the hosts, as is Joao Palhinha through suspension. Newcastle, though, faces more severe availability concerns with Alexander Isak and Chris Wood sidelined, while Allan Saint-Maximin and Bruno Guimarães are both doubts. It’s a surprise to see the Magpies as favorites given the players they could be without, and the fact they have just one league win to their name.
Eddie Howe on Saint-Maximin:
"He's doing well. He's had a period away but he's come back & he's close. There's a lot of moving parts with us at the moment. I'm being vague but that's because there are a few situations that are unclear going into the game – Allan is one of them." pic.twitter.com/ooFoJNQ1s7
— Newcastle United FC (@NUFC) September 30, 2022
The same-game parlay is our favored route once again here. Fulham have seven points from three home matches against Liverpool, Brentford and Brighton. Newcastle have scored just three goals in four league matches.
- Pick: Fulham to win or draw and Newcastle to score under 1.5 goals (-109)
Southampton vs Everton Prediction
Everton clocked their first win of the season last time out. Frank Lampard’s team now face a Southampton team that has lost to nil in three of its last four. Both of these teams are worth keeping an eye on in EPL relegation odds.
Yan Valery on Hasenhuttl: “He’s not a coach who talks a lot. Even if you’re young, you can’t expect to talk to him a lot or think he will speak to you & make you more confident. You can’t change him, so that’s why he has a team of coaches around.” #saintsfc @TheAthleticUK
— SaintsExtra (@SaintsExtra) September 30, 2022
While Everton have battled this season, their away record of late is dire, with just one win from 20 Premier League matches on the road. Only West Ham and Wolves have scored fewer goals this term, and they lost on their last trip to St Mary’s. Southampton have their own issues in the final third, and they are notoriously inconsistent under Ralph Hasenhuttl, but they will be pleased to return home for this one after consecutive defeats away.
This looks like a low-scoring match. The first goal could well be decisive — the odds on Saints to score first and win represent better value than the moneyline for our Premier League picks.
- Pick: Southampton to score first and win (+140)
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