Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC Odds & Prediction – MLS Cup Playoffs Eastern Conference Finals
- Philadelphia Union hosts New York City FC in the MLS Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday, October 30th
- Philadelphia Union are 3-1-1 vs New York City FC in their last five head-to-head encounters
- Get the Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC picks and betting predictions below
The MLS Conference Finals are here, with Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC representing the East on Sunday night at 8:00 pm ET. Afterward, the winner of this match will lift the Eastern Conference trophy and move on to play the winner of LAFC and Austin FC next Saturday.
To get to this point, Philadelphia only had to win one match in the playoffs thanks to their first-place seeding. Jim Curtin’s side won in a gritty 1-0 victory against 5th-place Cincinnati. Moreover, the U are holding two consecutive clean sheets under their belt and will also be looking to keep their 12-5-0 unbeaten home record alive.
Conversely, New York City FC enters this match as sort of the dark horse, despite winning the MLS Cup last year. The Pigeons sent top goalscorer Valentin Castellanos on loan, and their title hopes looked grim as a result. In fact, New York City FC went on a streak where they won just once in ten games. Nonetheless, they have rattled off five straight victories over conference opponents ahead of this ECF rematch.
Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline Odds |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union | -106 |
| New York City FC | +265 |
| Draw | +260 |
Odds as of October 30th from Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on this MLS Playoffs match and receive a unique sign-up bonus.
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Overall, Philadelphia Union are moneyline favorites with odds of -106. This is fair considering they did the double on New York this year, winning two matches by an aggregate score of 4-1. On the other hand, New York City FC’s odds of +265 conveys their underdog status. If you do favor Philadelphia, go with the moneyline as their odds to go through sit at a juicy -250.
The Captain is back.#DOOP | @AleBedoya17 pic.twitter.com/j6w5oNIsSb
— x – PhilaUnion (@PhilaUnion) October 29, 2022
Also, check out our MLS Cup Odds page to see what team has the best outright chances.
Over/Under
Additionally, this game could go either way in terms of the over/under. Currently, the over on 2.5 total goals has odds of -121, while the reverse option has odds of -112. Their ECF from last year’s playoffs did eclipse this mark of 2.5 total goals, thanks to the 88th-minute winner from Brazilian, Talles Mango. Regardless, both of these sides have more than competent defenses, which swings me more toward the under.
A few of our favorite goals against Philly ⚽ @FLOevcharging pic.twitter.com/3cgqVq9e1u
— New York City Football Club (@NYCFC) October 29, 2022
Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC Statistics
| 2.09 | Goals per game | 1.75 |
| 1.75 | Expected goals per game | 1.75 |
| 0.74 | Goals allowed per game | 1.17 |
| 1.11 | Expected goals allowed per game | 1.15 |
| 43.7% | Possession % | 55.9% |
| 45.7% | Clean Sheet % | 41.7% |
| 13.3 | Shots per game | 14.3 |
Stats in table from 2022-23 MLS regular season + postseason play.
Daniel Gazdag to Score Odds
Another play that has much more favorable value, is Daniel Gazdag to score anytime with odds of +250. The Hungarian midfielder has 22 goals on the season, scoring three on Decision Day versus Toronto. I think that New York will really key in on the two-pronged line of Mikael Uhre and Julian Carranza up top. In turn, a goal from Gazdag who lies further back, seems like a logical half-unit play.
Final stats for Philadelphia Union star attacker Daniel Gazdag in 2022: 22 goals and 10 assists.
What a second season in MLS for the Hungarian int'l. Started all 34 games, too, as Philly finished with the top seed in the Eastern Conference. pic.twitter.com/xSV5Xnxzj2
— Tom Bogert (@tombogert) October 9, 2022
Projected Lineups and Injuries
Philadelphia Union Projected Lineup: Blake, Wagner, Elliot, Glesnes, Mbaizo, Flach, Martinez, Bedoya, Gazdag, Uhre, Carranza
Major Injuries & Absences: None
New York City FC Projected Lineup: Johnson, Callens, Martins, Chanot, Tinnerholm, Moralez, Acevedo, O’Toole, Rodriguez, Pereira, Heber
Major Injuries & Absences: (All players are questionable at this moment) A. Morales, M. Moralez, Mango, Gray, Chanot
Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC Prediction
Remember, Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC has been building tension since the final whistle blew at Subaru Park last fall. After a second-place finish, Philadelphia Union fought to the ECF’s by beating the New York Red Bulls and Nashville SC. However, they caught a wave of Covid-19, forcing 11 players and nine regular starters out of the lineup.
Still, New York City FC barely scratched by Philadelphia. In all honestly, even as a spectator, it felt like that match was stolen from the better team had they been at full health. Now, Philadelphia has won two on the bounce against New York City FC and will feel a chip on their shoulder come Sunday night.
This is their moment of redemption, and for me that extends past any stat or metric. The U are a great football side that can score goals from a variety of areas. New York City FC deserve credit too, but a 7-3-8 away record this season still makes me question their chances.
Pick: Philadelphia Union ML (-106)
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