- Odds are set at +150 that former US President Donald Trump will be back on Twitter tweeting away before December
- Trump was banned from Twitter following the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection at the US Capitol
- New Twitter owner Elon Musk is suggesting that a board will be put in place to determine whether banned users should be tendered an invitation to return to the platform
It could be argued that the decline of Twitter from social media site into social warfare site was originally ignited by the presence of Donald Trump. Given the most visible position in the world as 45th President of the United States, he utilized his Twitter platform to attack rivals, spread hate and generally be an irascible and incendiary presence.
That ended following the January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol. Twitter banned Trump, feeling his vitriol on their site was responsible in part for fueling the attempted overthrow of Congress.
However, with billionaire Elon Musk recently acquiring Twitter, he’s publicly floating the notion of removing the bans on controversial figures such as Trump. Oddsmakers are of the belief that Trump will be returning to his raging presence on the social media platform sooner than later. Before December of this year is the +150 favorite to be the month when Trump returns to Twitter.
When Will Donald Trump Return To Twitter?
| Date | Odds |
|---|---|
| Before December 2022 | +150 |
| December 2022 | +325 |
| January 2023 | +350 |
| February 2023 or Later | +250 |
Odds as of October 31.
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Click on Trump’s Twitter feed @realdonaldtrump and you’ll get the following message: “Account suspended. Twitter suspends accounts that violate the Twitter Rules”.
Trump is the +300 favorite to win in the 2024 US Presidential election odds.
Will Twitter Roll Out Welcome Mat To The Donald?
Originally, Musk was insisting that a committee would be forming to debate the status of those like Trump with Twitter accounts under suspension. Then on Monday, word came that Musk was dismissing the entire Twitter board.
Twitter will be forming a content moderation council with widely diverse viewpoints.
No major content decisions or account reinstatements will happen before that council convenes.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 28, 2022
Musk seems to be cut from the same cloth as Trump, and no one is going to tell him what to do. Besides, Musk is first and foremost all about making money for Elon. As much as Trump is a polarizing figure, he’s also like a car wreck. You don’t want to look, but you can’t take your eyes off of him.
Of course Musk is going to invite Trump back to Twitter. In his mind, it’s going to make good business sense. And that’s all that matters to him. But it might not happen before December. That’s a quick turnaround.
Pick: December 2022 (+325).
What Will He Say?
One thing about Trump – he’s never at a loss for words. Oh sure, they might be the same 15 words on repeat, but he’ll just keep on repeating them.
A prop wager is asking what words will Trump tweet first upon his return to the Twitter platform. “Great” is the overwhelming odds-on -10000 favorite, which fairly sums up Trump’s limited vocabulary.
To Appear In Donald Trump’s Next Tweet
| Word(s) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Great | -10000 |
| Our Country | -4500 |
| Truth | -2500 |
| Patriot(s) | -1500 |
| MAGA | -1000 |
| Save America | -500 |
| 2024 | +250 |
| White House | +250 |
| Capitol | +400 |
| Elon | +500 |
| Fake news | +500 |
| Radical left | +550 |
| Rigged | +600 |
| Covid | +800 |
| Dumb | +900 |
| Haters and losers | +950 |
A search of the Trump Twitter Archive shows that “great” is his most frequent tweet at 7,137 times. “MAGA” (Make America Great Again) is only at 599.
If you’re looking for value, consider a play on “fake news”. And no, this isn’t fake news. He’s tweeted “fake news” 979 times.
Pick: Fake news (+500)
Does Trump Want To Come Back To Twitter?
When he was dropped by Twitter, Trump was launching the rival social media site Truth Social. However, the truth is hurting.
According to app analysis company Sensor Tower, Truth Social counted 92,000 installs over the past month. In the same time frame, Twitter was displaying 14 million installs.
To Tweet Again In 2022
| Person (Twitter handle) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Marjorie Taylor Greene (@mtgreenee | -150 |
| Alex Jones (@RealAlexJones | -110 |
| Milo Yiannopoulos (@nero) | +110 |
| Steve Bannon (@WarRoomPandemic) | +130 |
All that Truth Social has going for it is Trump. And he’s the money behind the site. Should he go back to Twitter, Truth Social figures to go the way of the DoDo Bird and the California Golden Seals.
That being said, narcissist that he is, Trump won’t be able to resist the chance to come back triumphantly to Twitter. The -110 chalk in the 2024 Republican nomination odds, he certainly loves to talk about winning. However, he hasn’t had a win in a long time.
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