- #9 Clemson is a 7.5-point favorite over #23 North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game odds
- The Tigers will advance to the Orange Bowl on Dec. 30 with a victory
- Keep reading for the latest Clemson vs North Carolina odds, along with analysis and predictions
For the second straight year, #9 Clemson (10-2, 8-0 ACC) is going to consider its season a failure no matter what the outcome of the ACC Championship Game is. The Tigers had National Championship aspirations, and for most of the season were considered a legitimate contender.
That all changed four weeks ago thanks to a loss to Notre Dame, and last week’s defeat versus South Carolina was merely pouring salt on the wound.
On the bright side, they’re still considered a strong favorite to win the conference title in the college football odds. Clemson will face #23 North Carolina (9-3, 6-2 ACC) for the ACC crown on Saturday, looking for their seventh conference title in the past eight years.
Clemson vs North Carolina Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson Tigers | -7.5 (-110) | -315 | O 63 (-110) |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | +7.5 (-110) | +260 | U 63 (-110) |
Odds as of November 30 at DraftKings. Get the DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on the Clemson vs North Carolina matchup.
The Tigers opened up as 7-point favorites, but the line has since been bet up a half point in their favor. The betting action is nearly 50/50 at the new number, however over 63 is getting plenty of love in the total market. It’s drawing 61% of the over/under tickets and 69% of the handle which suggests the total may rise before game time.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8 pm ET at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage. Temperatures are expected to drop to 37 degrees Saturday night, with rain and 21 mph wind gusts in the forecast.
Clemson Tigers Betting Analysis
Clemson is one win away from completing a perfect ACC season, but the losses to Notre Dame and SC will haunt Dabo Swinney and Co. for the entire offseason.
The Tigers were flat out sloppy in their 31-30 loss last week to the Gamecocks, turning the ball over three times, and yielding large chunk plays to Spencer Rattler and the SC offense.
In a normal week, that would have been the story, however the way DJ Uiagalelei played, it’s impossible to talk about anything else. The one-time Heisman Trophy odds longshot contender completed just 8-of-29 passes for 99 yards. He took a sack, threw an interception and looked worse than he has all season.
The two worst starts of DJ Uiagalelei's career have come against South Carolina … he went 8-for-29 for 99 yards today. Went 9-of-19 for 99 yards last season.
— Brad Crawford (@BCrawford247) November 26, 2022
Despite the atrocious start, Swinney left him in the game and plans to start him again versus the Tar Heels. Uiagalelei was pulled twice earlier in the season for poor play, and it’s a shock Swinney didn’t bring in freshman Cade Klubnik against the Gamecocks looking for a spark.
Uiagalelei has struggled over the last month, completing only 59.2 percent of his passes for 708 yards. Thankfully, the Tigers’ run game has been there to pick up the slack. Sophomore Will Shipley has scored in five straight games, eclipsing 131 yards twice during that stretch.
Clemson enters play ranked 29th in rushing yards per game, and have a favorable matchup versus an underwhelming UNC defense.
Defensively, the Tigers have taken a step back this season. They finished last year second to only Georgia in scoring defense, but this year they rank 27th in that category, yielding 30+ points in two of their past four outings.
North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Analysis
Clemson wasn’t the only program to disappoint last week. UNC fell 30-27 in double OT to rival NC State and the Wolfpack’s fourth-string QB.
It marked the second straight loss for the Tar Heels, and the second consecutive underwhelming start for freshman Drake Maye. UNC’s star QB was in the Heisman conversation up until a couple weeks ago, but has now thrown more interceptions (2) than touchdowns (1) in his last two games.
Me searching for Drake Maye’s Heisman invite pic.twitter.com/BZMbVD5k6g
— #16 Tuffy Talk (@TuffyTalkNow) November 26, 2022
Maye is fresh off his worst two performances of the season, and unlike the Tigers, North Carolina doesn’t have an elite run game to fall back on. Maye is actually the Tar Heels leading rusher with 629 yards, to go along with his 3,847 passing yards.
On the other side of the ball, if there was ever a team for Uiagalelei to get right against it would be the Tar Heels. North Carolina ranks 100th in scoring defense, and 87th in yards per play.
Freshman Ben Finley, NC State’s fourth QB of the season, just hung 271 passing yards and two scores on them, while UNC struggles to get pressure and force turnovers. They rank 111th in takeaways and 127th in sack percentage.
Clemson vs North Carolina Prediction
The college football playoff rankings have just a 14-team gap between Clemson and North Carolina, but advanced analytics believe it’s much wider than that. SP+ ranks them 33 spots apart while ESPN’s FPI has 32 teams ranked in between them.
The way UNC has played lately in losses to Georgia Tech and NC State, it’s hard to argue with the analytics community.
Clemson vs North Carolina Recent History
| Date | Away Team | Home Team | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/28/2019 | Clemson | North Carolina | CLEM, 21-20 |
| 12/05/2015 | North Carolina | Clemson | CLEM, 45-37 |
| 09/27/2014 | North Carolina | Clemson | CLEM, 50-35 |
| 10/22/2011 | Clemson | North Carolina | CLEM, 59-38 |
| 10/09/2010 | Clemson | North Carolina | UNC, 21-16 |
Granted, the Tigers underwhelmed last week as well, but this is an opportunity to finish strong, especially on offense versus this porous defense.
Clemson has beaten UNC in four straight meetings, with three of those results coming by eight or more points. They’re also 5-1 against the spread in their last six ACC title games, and 6-2 ATS versus conference opponents this year.
Pick: Clemson -7.5 (-110)
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