- Get our top expert NFL Week 17 ATS picks for New Year’s Weekend
- The Carolina Panthers as +3.5 underdogs in Tampa, is the most popular expert pick for the weekend
- Read on for our expert NFL picks against the spread for Week 17 below
It’s the penultimate weekend of the NFL regular season and we’re still posting a winning record in our expert NFL picks against the spread heading into the weekend. This week we’re rolling with eight different teams, two picks on the Panthers and two experts going head-to-head in the Jaguars vs Texans game.
After a 3-6 Week 17 showing, our season-long ATS record is now 78-76-7.
Each week we’ll make our top picks against the spread and keep track of our records throughout the season. Read on for this week’s top NFL ATS picks.
Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 17
| Matt McEwan | Ryan Metivier | Zach Reger | Bob Duff |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | Panthers (+4) | Texans (+4) | Panthers (+4) |
| — | Vikings (+3.5) | Jets (-1.5) | Commanders (-2) |
| — | Bengals (+1) | Steelers (+2.5) | Jaguars (-4) |
| 7-13-1 Season Record | 18-27-3 Season Record | 27-19-2 Season Record | 26-17-1 Season Record |
Odds as of December 30. Check out this Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend
Our expert ATS picks above include picks on eight different games and two picks on the Carolina Panthers.
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Ryan Metivier
- Panthers (+4) at DraftKings Sportsbook
This line was Panthers +3 earlier in the week, but now that we’re getting the hook as well, this has to be a Panthers play in our expert NFL picks against the spread. The Panthers are coming off a 37-23 win last week and have won 3/4 and 4/6 games. They’ve already beaten the Bucs once this season, 21-3 back in October.
Carolina has surprisingly been solid after trading away CMC. In fact, in the past three weeks, they’re averaging the second-most rushing yards per game at 188, only behind Baltimore at 199. Sam Darnold has been serviceable at QB throwing over 200 yards the past two weeks and throwing one TD and zero interceptions in each of the four games he’s played this season.
Then there’s the Bucs. This team is just broken and they’re painful to watch. It was a truly painful SNF game on Christmas Day that saw Tom Brady and the Bucs win 19-16 in overtime against a third-string QB in Arizona.
The Buccaneers last four wins have come by three, two, five and three points. They’re just not a team to trust winning by over a field goal against anyone.
“I know it’s Christmas season…it’s pretty MIRACULOUS what [Steve Wilks] has done with that football team!!”@CowherCBS is impressed with the head coach and how he's reinvigorated Sam Darnold and the Carolina Panthers. pic.twitter.com/hPcWnY8hg3
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 24, 2022
- Vikings (+3.5) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Let’s grab the hook once again in our Week 17 ATS picks. Having any stake in Kirk Cousins outside of a 1 pm EST timeslot in Minnesota does not make me warm and fuzzy inside, but can you really get too excited about the Packers either?
Sure, they’re rolling of late with three straight wins, but Tua gift-wrapped a Christmas present for them last week with three interceptions. The Rams, are well the Rams. Baker Mayfield had just 111 passing yards and the score was just 10-6 at the half. The week prior, the beat a 3-12 Bears team, but needed 18 fourth quarter points to come back from an earlier 16-3 deficit.
The Vikings’ defense may be poor, giving up 30 or more points in four of their past seven and an average of 30.28 in that stretch, however, they rank seventh in points scored per game at 25.2. Justin Jefferson has gone off versus the Packers with 184 and 169 yards in two of his past three games against the Pack. Their offense should do enough to keep this close or pull the upset.
- Bengals (+1) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Buffalo may have one more win than Cincinnati (12-3 vs 11-4), but I’m not sure that is enough to warrant them being favorites in Ohio on MNF. The Bills are winning but not convincingly. Despite the scoreline reading 35-13 in over Chicago last week, they were down 10-6 at halftime. They’re also just 7-7-1 ATS.
Meanwhile, Joe Burrow and Cincy are the hottest money-makers in the league right now. The Bengals own the best ATS record at 12-3, they’re 5-1 at home and Burrow is scorching hot on a 20-3 personal ATS run.
Zach Reger
- Texans (+4) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Don’t look now, but Houston has covered in three straight games. They are playing hard for their coach, and while the Jaguars are hot right now, Trevor Lawrence has not beaten the Texans yet in his career. In fact, the Jaguars have lost nine straight games to the Texans. Lastly, the Jaguars will play for the division in Week 18 win or lose, so the Texans should be able to keep this game close.
- Jets (-1.5) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Mike White is back, and this is a must-win for the Jets if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. They are well-rested after playing last Thursday night against the Jaguars. Seattle’s offense should struggle against Sauce Gardner and co., and their defense has not been able to stop anyone of late. If the Jets can get any sort of production from the quarterback position, they should roll in Seattle.
Mad Minute ⏰
Jets at Seahawks
The table has their eyes on Mike White and high hopes for the Jets #TakeFlight pic.twitter.com/OnVDpnJDyZ
— Good Morning Football (@gmfb) December 30, 2022
- Steelers (+2.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook. Claim your FanDuel Sportbook promo code for Week 17 here
The Steelers and Ravens are one of the best rivalries in the NFL. The games always seem to be low-scoring and close. This one should be no different, so I lean toward the underdog in the matchup. Pittsburgh lost to Baltimore by two points just three weeks ago. I expect another close, ugly battle between these two teams, and the Steelers have looked better of late, while the Ravens have specialized in playing close games.
Bob Duff
- Panthers (+4) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Along with a 5-1 ATS mark in their past five games, the Panthers are also 5-0 ATS in the last five against NFC opponents and 4-1 ATS in the last five against NFC South opposition.
Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in the last five against the Panthers and will clinch the division with a win here. However, the Buccaneers are 0-5 ATS overall in the past five games and 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine home games.
- Commanders (-2) at BetMGM
Washington is 0-2-1 SU over the past three games. Clinging to the last NFC postseason berth, the Commanders are +170 to make it in the NFL playoff odds.
They are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven games against AFC opposition. And Cleveland is 1-4 SU in the past five road games.
- Jaguars (-4) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Sure, Jacksonville’s recent history against Houston isn’t great (1-5 ATS in the past six games). However, the recent history of the Jaguars is very good. They’re 4-1 ATS over the past five games.
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its’ last six meetings with an AFC South opponent. And the Texans are 3-0 ATS over the last three games. But the Texans beat Tennessee outright last week to put Jacksonville in first place. They’ve won back-to-back games just once over the past 37 games.
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