- New York is a 4-point home favorite in the Heat vs Knicks odds for Game 1 of the second-round playoff series on Sunday
- Julius Randle (sprained ankle) is listed as questionable for the Knicks
- Don’t miss the Heat vs Knicks Game 1 predictions, odds, injury news, and same-game parlay picks
For the first time since 2012, the Heat and Knicks will square off in a playoff series. Both Miami and New York produced first-round upsets, with the eighth-seeded Heat shocking the number one-seeded Bucks. Read on for a betting analysis of Heat vs Knicks.
Game 1 gets underway on Sunday in New York, and online sportsbooks are siding with the home team in the NBA odds. The Knicks opened up as the chalk, despite potentially being down one of their top players – more on that later.
Heat vs Knicks Game 1 Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat | +4 (-110) | +155 | O 207.5 (-110) |
| Milwaukee Bucks | -4 (-110) | -180 | U 207.5 (-110) |
New York is currently laying 4 points to Miami, in a contest that features a total of 207.5. Tip-off is scheduled for 1 pm ET at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.
Odds as of April 29 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami vs New York Betting Splits
The Heat have been underdogs in all five of their postseason games so far, going 4-1 ATS with four outright victories. The public is counting on that trend to continue, as they’re backing Miami on 60% of the spread tickets so far. Those wagers are only accounting for 43% of the handle, however, which suggests big-money bettors are riding with the Knicks.
Total wise, money is pouring in on the over. That side is garnering 78% of the over/under wagers, and 80% of the total handle. As we’ll discuss, both Miami and New York play at a snail’s pace. Be careful with following the masses to the window to wager on the over.
Heat vs Knicks Injury Report
On the injury front, the big question mark ahead of Game 1 is Julius Randle. The Knicks star forward sprained his ankle in New York’s series clinching win over Cleveland, and hasn’t done much on the practice court since.
Randle did some pool work and light shooting on Saturday, but the team wouldn’t commit either way to him suiting up on Sunday. He’s currently listed as questionable, as is teammate Quentin Grimes due to a shoulder injury.
If there’s one play that sums up Julius Randle’s time with the Knicks, it was this game winner. Ups and downs, fumbles and a pleasant surprise.
We riding with you Ju 💙🧡 pic.twitter.com/auDfDHvKOb
— Big Knick Energy (@BigKnickEnergy_) April 29, 2023
For Miami, the backcourt ailments remain the same. Neither Tyler Herro nor Victor Oladipo will play in this series. Bam Adebayo was a staple on the injury report in the latter half of the opening round due to a hamstring, but he’s expected to continue to play through the pain.
Heat vs Knicks Betting Notes
Randle was the Knicks leading scorer and rebounder during the regular season but struggled badly in Round 1 versus the Cavs. He shot just 32% from the field and 29% from three, averaging more turnovers (4) than assists (2) per game.
New York were 12.5 points better against Cleveland with him off the court than on. That should potentially give the Knicks backers confidence should he sit. New York can afford to lose Randle due to their incredible bench depth, and the fantastic performance of Jalen Brunson.
Brunson put up 20+ points, 5+ assists, and 4+ rebounds in the final four games of the opening round, and got plenty of help from the bench. The Knicks boast a top-five bench in the league and have a major advantage in that category over the Heat.
New York also has a big edge on the glass, as they grabbed over 39% of all available offensive rebounds in Round 1, the highest rate of any team in a series in the past nine years.
As for Miami, they’re going to go as far as Jimmy Butler can take them. Butler was a one-man show against the Bucks, averaging 37.6 points per game. He also averaged six rebounds and five assists and is looking to lead his team back to the East Finals in the NBA playoff bracket for the second straight year.
Jimmy Butler next target has been acquired pic.twitter.com/3Q6igBeyRd
— HEAT NATION (@Zachppp) April 27, 2023
With three 35+ outings in the opening round, Butler now has 11 such performances in only 46 playoff games with Miami. He has just ten 35+ games on his regular season resume in 231 starts with the Heat.
Miami was a lackluster team offensively in the regular season, but they’ve cranked up the efficiency so far in the playoffs. The Heat rank second in offensive rating, behind only the Suns. They’ll look to maintain that efficiency against New York, although that is a lot to ask given how the Knicks are defending.
Heat vs Knicks Predictions
New York leads the postseason in defensive rating. They completely neutralized the Cavs, allowing an average of 101.9 points per 100 possessions. For context, that was 8 points less than the best defensive rating during the regular season.
The Knicks need to be that committed on defense because only three teams have a lower offensive rating in the playoffs. As a result, all five of their games underwhelmed offensively, and we’re banking on Game 1 to follow suit in our Heat vs Knicks same-game parlay.
Heat vs Knicks Game 1 Same-Game Parlay
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Under 207.5 Points | -110 |
| Mitchell Robinson 8+ Rebounds | -390 |
| Same-Game Parlay Odds | +145 |
We’ll play under 207.5 as the first leg of our SGP, and pair it with 8+ rebounds for New York’s Mitchell Robinson. If it hits, we’re looking at a +145 payday.
Both the Heat and Knicks played at a bottom-five pace during the regular season, and New York was the third-slowest team in Round 1.
As for Mitchell, the Knicks center gobbled up 29 rebounds in the final two games of the opening round. Miami has the fourth-worst rebounding team in Round 1, and Mitchell should have a major advantage on the glass versus Adebayo, who’s playing on a weak hamstring.
Pick: Same Game Parlay Pick (+140)
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