- The Phillies vs Mets odds list New York as -175 moneyline favorites on Thursday afternoon
- Max Scherzer has allowed one run or less in three consecutive starts
- Check out the Phillies vs Mets predictions, odds and player-prop bets to target below
After a rocky start to the season, coupled with a neck issue that landed him on the IL, it appears Max Scherzer has found his form. The multiple time Cy Young Award winner has been nearly flawless over his past three starts, leading his Mets (29-27, 14-9 home) to victory in each of those outings.
Online sportsbooks expect another strong performance from Scherzer on Thursday afternoon versus the Phillies (25-30, 11-20 away), as they opened up New York as the sizeable home chalk in the MLB odds.
Phillies vs Mets Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | +145 | +1.5 (-140) | O 8.5 (-110) |
| New York Mets | -175 | -1.5 (+120) | U 8.5 (-110) |
The Mets are currently -175 moneyline favorites, in a contest with a total of 8.5. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 pm ET at Citi Field, in Queens, NY, with sunshine and high-seventies temperatures on deck.
Odds as of May 31 at Bet365. Check out SBD’s Bet365 review or another one of North America’s top sports betting sites before making your Phillies vs Mets picks today.
Philadelphia vs New York Probable Pitchers
Scherzer and the Mets enter play as top-six contenders in the World Series odds. They took the first two games of this three game set versus Philly, giving them nine wins in their last 14 contests. Two of those outings were started by Scherzer, and each was a gem.
Last time out, he allowed just a singe run in a 5-2 win over Colorado, striking out eight in 7 innings of work. His previous start was a 6 inning, three-hit shutout of Cleveland, while he coughed up only two hits and a run two starts ago versus Washington.
Max Scherzer over his last 3 starts:
18 IP
2-0
1.00 ERA
0.78 WHIP
19 KThe Max Scherzer the Mets need🔥🔥 #LGM pic.twitter.com/EzKSEzAcxV
— NYM Stats (@nym_stats) May 27, 2023
Over his last three outings, he’s posted a 19-to-3 strikeout-to-walk rate, and a WHIP well below 1.00. He was roughed up in his first start following his IL stint, but since then it’s been smooth sailing.
On paper, a matchup with last year’s National League champs seems daunting, but the Phillies are in a serious funk as we’ll discuss. To make matters worse for Philadelphia, Scherzer has always had their number.
Current Phillies in the MLB lineups are batting .194 against him over 180 at-bats, with 73 strikeouts. No player has had a tougher time than Nick Castellanos, who’s whiffed in half of his 20 plate appearances, recording only three hits.
Walker vs Scherzer Stats
| 4-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 5.57 | ERA | 3.54 |
| 1.46 | WHIP | 1.13 |
| .271 | OBA | .221 |
| 1.9 | SO/W Ratio | 3.5 |
The Phillies will counter with former Met Taijuan Walker. The 30-year-old had the best year of his career in 2022, but this season has not gone so smoothly. Yes, he may own an identical record to Scherzer, but his underlying numbers are not good.
Enemy hitters are slashing .271/.342/.453 off Walker so far, which is the highest opponent slash line of his career. His strikeout per 9 rate has dipped below 7.5, his lowest mark since 2018, while his walk rate hasn’t been this high since his sophomore season in 2014.
Walker has been especially bad on the road this season, posting a 6.75 ERA in seven starts, while allowing an opponent batting average of .311.
Phillies vs Mets Predictions
New York’s lineup was sluggish out of the gate this season, drastically underperforming. Lately, they’ve picked up the slack, and over the last 14 days are averaging six runs per game. They’re slashing .270/.342/.463 during that span, with 19 home runs, seven of which have been hit by top-three NL MVP odds candidate Pete Alonso.
Exactly one-third of the way into the Mets season, Pete Alonso is on pace for 60 home runs.
Will he pull it off? pic.twitter.com/Rms04NTXn5
— MLB (@MLB) May 30, 2023
Philadelphia on the other hand, enters play losers of 10 of its past 15 games, scoring four runs or fewer 11 times. Prized offseason acquisition Trea Turner has been a bust so far, batting just .240 with a .662 OPS, while Bryce Harper is still looking for a power surge since coming back from injury.
Phillies vs Mets 2023 H2H Results
| Date | Away Team | Home Team | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | Phillies | Mets | NYM, 4-1 |
| May 30 | Phillies | Mets | NYM, 2-0 |
Harper has gone deep only three times in 24 games, and has an up and down history versus Scherzer. He’s taken Mad Max deep three times in 20 at-bats, but has also struck out on nine occasions. The Phillies whiff at the National League’s sixth highest rate, and struck out 11 times in Tuesday’s series opener.
Kodai Senga sat down nine Philadelphia hitters in that game, and we should expect plenty of strikeouts for Scherzer as well. The 38-year-old has a 28% strikeout rate over his last three starts, after underwhelming in that department through his first four outings.
Picks:
- New York Mets Moneyline (-175)
- Max Scherzer Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-106)
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