- No. 9 seed Daria Kasatkina meets unseeded Madison Keys in the Eastbourne International final
- The match is scheduled for 7:30 am ET on Saturday
- Keys leads the head-to-head 8-2. Read on as we break down the Keys vs Kasatkina odds and make a prediction
A tournament that originally had eight of the top-10 players on the WTA Tour is down to a final that will feature No. 25 Madison Keys vs. No. 11 Daria Kasatkina. Read on for the odds and our Keys vs Kasatkina prediction here.
Keys vs Kasatkina Odds
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Keys (USA) | +0.5 (-115) | +100 | O 21.5 (-125) |
| [9] Daria Kasatkina (RUS) | -0.5 (-105) | -120 | U 21.5 (-110) |
At -120 odds, Kasatkina is a somewhat surprising favorite over Keys. Keys is the underdog at +100 odds with the over/under on games sitting at 21.5.
Odds as of June 30 at DraftKings. Get a DraftKings promo code to bet on Keys vs Kasatkina at the Eastbourne International.
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An Impressive Week From Keys
Despite the defection of basically all the big names at Eastbourne this week, Keys’s run to the final is still encouraging ahead of Wimbledon.
The American has never done particularly well at the All-England Club. But her won-loss record on grass is outstanding overall. And she’s posed to win her third career grass-court title, her first since 2016.
Madison Keys has advanced to the Eastbourne International final by beating seventh-ranked Coco Gauff 6-3, 6-3. It was Keys’ first grass-court victory over a top-10 player since beating Angelique Kerber for the Eastbourne title in 2014. Keys will play ni… https://t.co/9x80S45jHe
— TEST NEWS SND (@TestSnd) June 30, 2023
Keys won her first career title at Eastbourne back in 2014, and she got there again with an impressive performance against 19-year-old countrywoman Coco Gauff, the No. 5 seed.
Keys’ numbers on serve were impressive; only four aces, but a nearly 75 percent first-serve rate, and 72.5 percent of points won with that first serve. Gauff wasn’t nearly as successful; she won barely half her first-serve points. And she was broken four times.
Kasatkina Survives Giorgi
For Kasatkina, the hard-hitting Giorgi proved a major challenge only in the latter half of the second set of their semifinal, mostly because Kasatkina got tight as a drum once she was up a double break.
Giorgi offered up 10 double faults on the day. Kasatkina broke her seven times in seven chances.
It was kind of a trainwreck of a match overall. But in the end, the 26-year-old Russian survived it. And with it, she’ll return to the top 10 next Monday.
Keys vs Kasatkina Head-to-Head
| 28 (Feb. 17, 1995) | Age | 26 (May 7, 1997) |
| Rock Island, Ill. | Birthplace | Togliatty, Russia |
| 5-10 | Height | 5-7 |
| 6 | Career WTA Singles Titles | 6 |
| No. 7 (Oct. 10, 2016) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 8 (Oct. 24, 2022) |
| No. 25 | Current Ranking | No. 11 |
| $15,931,937 | Career Earnings | $9,814,161 |
| 20-8 | 2022 Won/Loss Record | 19-15 |
| 8 | Head-to-Head Wins | 2 |
A Long, One-Sided History
It’s actually fairly rare that you’ll find a pairing on the WTA tour that has 10 head-to-head meetings. But Keys vs Kasatkina is one of them.
And for the most part, with all but one of the matches played on hard courts, Keys has had it her way.
Except … Kasatkina has won two of the last three over the last 18 months. Both were hard-fought three-setters, after Keys had dropped just one set in her first seven consecutive victories.
The most recent came in early April, on the Har-Tru surface in Charleston – which is another place Keys loves to play. But Kasatkina won it.
Keys vs Kasatkina Match History
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Charleston (QF) | Outdoor Clay | 6-7 (5), 6-4, 6-2 | Kasatkina |
| 2022 | San Diego (R16) | Outdoor Hard | 6-4, 6-3 | Keys |
| 2022 | Melbourne (R16) | Outdoor Hard | 7-6 (4), 2-6, 6-3 | Kasatkina |
| 2020 | Australian Open (R128) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 6-1 | Keys |
| 2019 | Osaka (R32) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 6-4 | Keys |
| 2019 | Cincinnati (R32) | Outdoor Hard | 6-4, 6-1 | Keys |
| 2018 | Zhuhai (R1) | Indoor Hard | 6-2, 6-4 | Keys |
| 2017 | Cincinnati (R32) | Outdoor Hard | 6-2, 6-1 | Keys |
| 2016 | Wuhan (R16) | Outdoor Hard | 6-1, 4-6, 6-4 | Keys |
| 2016 | Olympics (QF) | Outdoor Hard | 6-3, 6-1 | Keys |
Keys was far more impressive versus Gauff than Kasatkina was against Giorgi, if their most recent history is a harbinger of what’s to come on Saturday.
Keys vs Kasatkina Prediction
Despite Kasatkina having some success recently against Keys, the American at her best (especially on grass) is superior to the Russian at her best.
Kasatkina can disrupt her rhythm, the way she did (at least early on) against Giorgi. But she’ll have to keep it up the entire match.
Not only that, it feels like Keys sort of has a bead on the title this week. She knows she’s done it before. She’s 6-5 in her career in finals; Kasatkina is 6-6.
One key stat for Keys (pardon the pun) is that over the last year, she’s only 6-8 in deciding sets. And those she has won have mostly been over less-illustrious opponents. So if it goes that far, you’d expect Kasatkina to pull it out.
Keys vs Kasatkina Picks: Keys in Two Sets (+200)
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