- The Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to again lead the NFL in passing yards in 2023
- The second and third choices are the Chargers’ Justin Herbert and Bills’ Josh Allen
- A look at the 2023 NFL passing yards leader odds can be found below with a prediction
Patrick Mahomes topped the NFL in passing yards during the regular season in 2022 on his way to leading the Kansas City Chiefs to victory in the Super Bowl. Thus, it comes as no surprise that Mahomes is the favorite to defend his passing yardage title again in 2023 in the most passing yards odds this season.
His 5,250 passing yards a season ago were the most of his six-year career and he figures to still be very much in his prime at age 27.
Here is a look at passing yards leader odds.
Most Passing Yards Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) | +300 |
| Justin Herbert (Chargers) | +650 |
| Josh Allen (Bills) | +800 |
| Kirk Cousins (Vikings) | +900 |
| Joe Burrow (Bengals) | +1100 |
| Dak Prescott (Cowboys) | +1300 |
| Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) | +2000 |
| Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) | +2000 |
| Aaron Rodgers (Jets) | +2000 |
| Jared Goff (Lions) | +2500 |
| Matthew Stafford (Rams) | +2500 |
| Jalen Hurts (Eagles) | +2800 |
| Russell Wilson (Broncos) | +3500 |
| Derek Carr (Saints) | +3500 |
| Deshaun Watson (Browns) | +3500 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo (Raiders) | +3500 |
| Lamar Jackson (Ravens) | +4000 |
| Geno Smith (Seahawks) | +4000 |
| Jordan Love (Packers) | +5500 |
| Kenny Pickett (Steelers) | +6000 |
Patrick Mahomes is the +300 favorite in the odds above, while Justin Herbert, Josh Allen and Kirk Cousins are also priced at +900 or shorter. Odds as of June 30th at DraftKings.
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Patrick Mahomes the Favorite for Most Passing Yards
Last season marked the second time Mahomes topped 5,000 passing yards in a season. He finished with 5,097 in 2018, his first season as a starter.
Mahomes has had at least 4,000 yards in all five of his seasons as the Chiefs’ QB1. He has proven to be durable by starting at least 14 games each of the past five seasons and all 17 in both 2021 and 2022.
Even though the Chiefs traded star wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins prior to last season, Mahomes didn’t miss a beat. Kansas City has the most productive tight end in the NFL in Travis Kelce and Mahomes’ greatness elevates the games of wide receivers Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore.
Mahomes’ 5,250 yards in 2022 were right in line with the norm of recent NFL passing leaders. The league-leading figures have been over 5,000 yards in four of the last five seasons.
Recent NFL Passing Yardage Leaders
| Year | Player | Passing Yards |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) | 5,250 |
| 2021 | Tom Brady (Buccaneers) | 5,316 |
| 2020 | Deshaun Watson (Texans) | 4,823 |
| 2019 | Jameis Winston (Buccaneers) | 5,109 |
| 2018 | Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) | 5,129 |
Herbert, Allen Next in Line
The Los Angeles Chargers’ Justin Herbert is the second choice after Mahomes at +650. Third on the board is the Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen at +800.
Herbert was second in the league in passing yardage with 4,739 and has averaged 4,696 yards a year over his first three seasons in the NFL. His best mark was 5,014 yards in 2021.
The Chargers have a strong wide receiver corps led by Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Quentin Johnston, this year’s first-round draft pick from TCU. Austin Ekeler is as good of a receiver as any running back in the league.
Justin Herbert has a SPECIAL arm
This looks way too easy
pic.twitter.com/n1OYlHd7GM— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) June 29, 2023
Allen is the third choice despite finishing seventh in the NFL with 4,283 yards last season. He was plagued by interceptions with his 14 picks ranking second in the league.
The Bills have a star wide receiver in Stefon Diggs, who leads a group that includes Gabe Davis and Khalil Shakir. Tight end Daulton Kincaid, a first-round draft pick from Utah, should provide immediate help as a rookie.
Most Passing Yards Best Bet
The fifth choice by oddsmakers, the Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow represents outstanding value at odds of +1100. Burrow threw for 4,475 yards last year after posting 4,611 in 2021 in his first full season as Cincinnati’s QB1.
The Bengals have a deep corps of talented wide receivers in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Charlie Jones will likely be WR4 and he could prove to be a steal after being drafted in the fourth round from Purdue.
Joe burrow 🥶 edit pic.twitter.com/dOjEo0ZD4T
— Tatumgoat_0 (@Moreforthemedia) June 30, 2023
The Seattle Seahawks’ Geno Smith is worth a flier in the most passing yards odds odds at +4000. He led the Seahawks to the playoffs last year in his first season as a full-time NFL starter since 2014 and has an array of big-play wide receivers with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, a first-round draft pick from Ohio State.
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