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Best MLB Player Prop Picks for Monday, July 31st, Including strikeout over/unders for Seth Lugo

  • MLB player props are available for Monday’s MLB betting slate
  • Kyle Gibson has ERA of 5.69 since June 1st
  • Check out the best MLB player prop picks for Monday, July 31st, below

Despite the lighter schedule for Monday’s MLB betting slate, there is still value to be found. It is just on us to find it, and luckily I came through.

Our first play of the day will be in Toronto as we are taking George Springer to record 2+ total bases.

MLB Player Prop Picks for Monday, July 31

Prop Odds
George Springer to Record 2+ Bases +110
Seth Lugo Over 5.5 Strikeouts +100

Springer has admittedly been on a cold streak recently,  but we like him to break out of that slump on Monday. Orioles pitcher Kyle Gibson is on the mound, and he is the perfect pitcher for slumping hitter to go up against.

 

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MLB Player Prop #1: George Springer to Record 2+ Bases

In his last 5 starts alone, Gibson has given up a combined 16 earned runs, and a combined 20 hits in his last 3 starts. I’ll admit that Springer isn’t having a great year, but he does have a clear advantage over Gibson.

Ballpark Pal gives this matchup a “extreme advantage” in favor of Springer over Gibson, which makes sense as Springer is much better against righties than he is against lefties.

Against LHP, he is only batting .216 with a .311 slugging % and 9.5% ISO rate, which are horrific numbers, if we are being honest. Against RHP, they are a little more respectable with a .260 average, slugging .407, and 14.7% ISO rate. He also fares much better at home, batting .282, .436 slugging %, and an iSO rate of 15.4%.

Lastly, this is a positive script for both home runs as well as extra bases in Toronto from a weather perspective. Based on the temperature, the wind direction, and the dimensions of Rogers Centre, we should be seeing hits galore on Monday. I don’t hate the value on him hitting a home run either, but for this play we just need a double or two singles and we are cashing out.

Pick: George Springer to Record 2+ Bases (+110)

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MLB Player Prop #2: Seth Lugo Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Lugo doesn’t look like a great strikeout pitcher if you look at his season long stats, but he has performed much better recently. He’s only gone over 5.5 strikeouts in 6 of 15 starts, but he has hit this prop in four of his last five starts.

Team Ks Date
Pittsburgh Pirates 8 7/26
Detroit Tigers 7 7/21
Philadelphia Phillies 5 7/16
Los Angeles Angels 6 7/05
Cincinnati Reds 6 6/30

In those five starts, he has a strikeout rate of 26.7%. That would put him in the top-20 in the MLB if you extrapolate that out, with the 18th-highest strikeout rate in the MLB.

With the Rockies, he is going up against a team that has been striking out a lot in the past two weeks, at 27.2%, which is the sixth-highest in the MLB in that span. They are also a top-10 strikeout team against right-handed pitching in general, at 23.8%.

It’s always scary backing a pitcher playing in Colorado, but we’ll trust Lugo to get us to 6 Ks on Monday.

Pick: Seth Lugo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)

The post Best MLB Player Prop Picks for Monday, July 31st, Including strikeout over/unders for Seth Lugo appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.



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