- The Houston Rockets visit the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday, Nov. 28
- Houston is 0-5 straight-up on the road, but 3-2 against the spread
- See the Rockets vs Mavericks odds, player props, and picks for Tuesday night’s game at American Airlines Center
One of the biggest surprise teams of the year so far, the Houston Rockets (8-6, 0-5 away, 10-3-1 ATS) pay a visit to the Dallas Mavericks (10-6, 4-2 home, 8-8 ATS) on Tuesday night (8:40 pm ET) American Airlines Center.
Despite sitting two games over .500 straight-up, and seven games over .500 against the spread, the Rockets are still in search for their first road win of the season. Oddsmakers don’t favor it coming tonight, though the spread is relatively narrow.
Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks Odds
| Team | Point Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets | +3.5 (-115) | +150 | O 229.0 (-110) |
| Dallas Mavericks | -3.5 (-105) | -173 | U 229.0 (-110) |
Dallas opened as a 4.5-point favorite but that’s come down a full point to 3.5 as of noon ET on Tuesday. Houston is a +150 moneyline underdog to pick up its first road win of the season, while the total is sitting at 229 flat in Tuesday’s NBA odds.
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Up-and-Down Mavericks Throttled by Clippers Last Time Out
Dallas is coming off an embarrassing 107-88 setback at the LA Clippers, a game which they trailed by 24 midway through the third quarter. That marked Dallas’ third loss in its last four games, a slump that’s seen the team fade to fifth in the Western Conference. As he’s done in 11 of the Mavs’ 16 games this year, Luka Doncic led the team in scoring with 30 points in a losing effort.
After managing no more than 60 games each of the past four seasons, Kyrie Irving has suited up for 13 of Dallas’ 16 games so far this year. But the Mavs have just a 7-6 record with Kyrie in the lineup and 3-0 record without the eight-time All-Star. Head coach Jason Kidd is still struggling to make Irving (24.4 PPG, 5.5 APG), 4.2 RPG) fit with Doncic (30.5 PPG, 7.8 APG, 7.9 RPG), who currently sits second in the NBA MVP odds behind Denver’s Nikola Jokic.
The Mavericks are fairly healthy heading into the Houston game. Dereck Lively II (8.1 PPG, 7.6 RPG) is listed as questionable in Tuesday’s NBA lineups due to a back injury.
Rockets End Skip with Impressive Home Wins
After a three-game losing streak to start the season, Houston recorded a six-game win streak, which was equal to 27.3% of its entire win total from all of last season (22). When that run came to an end with a second three-game skid, it looked as though some early-season magic may have worn off. But Houston bounced back with dominant home victories over Memphis (111-91) and reigning-champion Denver (105-86) to get back above .500.
Houston’s 10-3-1 ATS record is third-best in the NBA (behind Orlando and OKC) though that consists of a 7-1-1 ATS mark at home and 3-2 ATS record on the road.
Third-year Turkish center Alperen Sengun has emerged as a leader on offense, averaging a team-high 20.2 PPG on 56.7% shooting from the field. But Houston’s best attribute is its depth; five different players are averaging over 13.2 PPG and ten are averaging at least 14.4 minutes per game.
Offseason acquisition Fred VanVleet has looked very comfortable running the offense. The longtime Raptor is third in the NBA in assists at 9.0 APG while committing just 1.6 turnovers per game.
Houston is a little more banged up than Dallas. Rookie Amen Thompson is out with an ankle injury, while Dillon Brooks (adductor) and VanVleet (thumb) are both listed as probable.
HOU vs DAL Player Props
| Player | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Three-Pointers Made |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alperen Sengun (HOU) | 20.5 (Ov -130 | Un -100) | 10.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) | 4.5 (Ov -166 | Un +130) | |
| Dillon Brooks (HOU) | 12.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) | 3.5 (Ov -130 | Un -100) | OFF | 1.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) |
| Fred VanVleet (HOU) | 17.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) | 4.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | 4.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135) | 2.5 (Ov -160| Un +124) |
| Grant Williams (DAL) | 8.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | 3.5 (Ov -150 | Un +120) | OFF | 1.5 (Ov -180 | Un +140) |
| Jabari Smith Jr (HOU) | 14.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) | 8.5 (Ov -130 | Un -100) | OFF | 1.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135) |
| Jalen Green (HOU) | 20.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) | 4.5 (Ov +120 | Un -150) | 2.5 (Ov -150 | Un +120) | 2.5 (Ov +135 | Un -175) |
| Kyrie Irving (DAL) | 26.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135) | 4.5 (Ov -105| Un -125) | 4.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | 2.5 (Ov -166 | Un +130) |
| Luka Doncic (DAL) | 29.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) | 9.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) | 7.5 (Ov -145 | Un +114) | 3.5 (Ov +114 | Un -145) |
| Tim Hardaway Jr (DAL) | 14.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) | 2.5 (Ov -175 | Un +135) | OFF | 2.5 (Ov -175 | Un +135) |
Player props and odds from the DraftKings Sportsbook app on Nov. 28.
Doncic has the highest point total on the board at 29.5, exactly one fewer than his season average. Irving has the second-highest total at 26.5, which is two more than his season average this year (24.4) but under his average in each of the past four seasons.
Rockets vs Mavericks Prediction
I have faith that the Rockets are not just a flash-in-the-pan. Their early-season success appears somewhat sustainable based on the roster GM Rafael Stone has constructed. But their struggles on the road are too big to ignore. Of their three ATS wins away from home, only one came by fewer than four points (105-104 at the Lakers). All four of Dallas’ home victories have been by five points or more.
Doncic will lead his team to a much-needed bounce-back win to start their current three-game homestand.
HOU vs DAL pick: Mavericks -3.5 (-110)
Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NBA betting record:
- 6-3-2 ATS (+2.44 units)
- 2-1 ML (+0.74 units)
- 3-7 player props (-4.27 units)
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