Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Picks, Predictions & Props to Target on July 2

The Philadelphia Phillies (55-29) visit Wrigley Field on Tuesday night to take on the Chicago Cubs (39-46) in the first game of a 3-game series.
Michael Mercado (0-0, 0.00 ERA) will make his first MLB start for the Phillies. Hayden Wesneski (2-4, 3.60 ERA) will get the ball for the Cubs.
Keep reading for our top picks from Tuesday night’s National League showdown.

The Phillies have the best record in baseball. The Cubs are in last place in the NL Central. Yet for Tuesday night’s showdown between Philadelphia and Chicago at Wrigley Field, the Cubbies are actually favored to win. Why is that? The pitching matchup has a lot to do with it. We’ll break down the starting pitchers and make some predictions for the game below. First pitch is set for 8:05 p.m. ET and the game can be seen on TBS.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Picks

Phillies moneyline (+105)
Over 9.5 runs (+100)
Bryson Stott over 1.5 total bases (+110)

The Phillies are a ghost squad right now, having been ravaged by injuries. Both of their top sluggers, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, are on the 10-day injured list. Yet the Phillies just keep rolling, racking up wins at the best rate in baseball.

On a warm, breezy summer night at Wrigley Field, I expect Philadelphia to continue to shine. If the Cubs had one of their better pitchers going, I might be more tempted to pick them. But I’ll take the +105 odds on Philadelphia, which you can find at bet365.

Since this isn’t the best pitching matchup, as Michael Mercado is making his first-ever major league start and Hayden Wesneski has bounced between the rotation and bullpen this year, I also expect both teams to score some runs. The total runs scored for this matchup should comfortably reach double digits.

And despite the injuries to the big sluggers, Philadelphia still has plenty of pop in its lineup. I’ll take left-handed Bryson Stott to lead the way tonight, posting 2 or more total bases. He has put up 2+ bases in 3 of his last 6 games and finds ways to impact the game even when he’s not collecting base hits. He’s in the leadoff role for the time being, which means he should get plenty of at-bats tonight.

His odds to record 2+ total bases are +110 at bet365. The odds for 10+ runs to be scored are +100. All good values if you think the Phillies can continue to roll on the road.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Philadelphia Phillies	+1.5 (-185)	+105	O 9.5 (+100)
Chicago Cubs	-1.5 (+155)	-125	U 9.5 (-120)

Odds via bet365 as of Tuesday, July 2. Use bet365 promo code SBDXLM when you register your new account today to receive a choice of welcome bonuses — a first-bet safety net of up to $1,000 or $150 in bonus bets when you place an initial $5+ wager.

As mentioned above, I like the Phillies on the moneyline at +105. If you want to back the Cubs, you’ll find -125 odds waiting. If you think Chicago can win by 2+ runs, you’ll get +155 odds at bet365. The over on runs at 9.5 is even +100 odds, which I also like as one of my picks tonight. The under features -120 odds.

2024 World Series Odds Tracker

Michael Mercado	VS	Hayden Wesneski
0-0	Record	2-4
0.00	ERA	3.60
33.3%	SO%	23.5%

Mercado has only worked 1 inning for the Phillies this season, and it came in relief. So don’t be fooled by that strikeout percentage, as he struck out 1 of the 3 batters he faced. Now he’ll be making his first start in Philadelphia, and it’s coming since Spencer Turnbull recently went on the injured list.

Wesneski has been used mostly in relief recently, but he does have plenty of starting experience under his belt. Don’t expect his strikeout rate to remain at 23.5% the more he works as a starter, though. When he’s expected to throw more innings, he won’t be able to throw at max effort like he does out of the bullpen.

Current Philadelphia batters are only 4-for-19 against Wesneski in their careers, so he has had some success. But I’m expecting a beautiful night at Wrigley, which should lead to the ball carrying. That should pose some problems for both starters.