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Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens Odds, Pick & Prediction (Sunday, Sept. 29)

  • We’ve made our Bills vs Ravens prediction for Sunday Night Football
  • The Ravens are the home favorites despite owning a worse record
  • Read below for Bills vs Ravens prediction, odds and betting picks

Sunday Night Football features its most appealing matchup of the 2024 season to date, as the Buffalo Bills (3-0) head to Baltimore to face the Ravens (1-2). Kickoff is 8:00 pm ET, with NBC carrying the broadcast.

Oddsmakers are giving the edge to the Ravens at home, pricing John Harbaugh’s club as a 2-5-point favorite. This is despite the Bills being one of the NFL’s last unbeaten teams and a rising Super Bowl contender.

Let’s dive into the Ravens vs Bills odds and provide our prediction for Sunday Night Football.

Bills vs Ravens Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Bills +2.5 (1.95) +120 Over 46.5 (1.91)
Ravens -2.5 (1.87) -145 Under 46.5 (1.91)

The Bills vs Ravens odds suggest a tight contest, with Baltimore slightly favored at home. The -145 moneyline for the Ravens implies a 59.2% chance of victory, while Buffalo’s +120 odds translate to a 45.5% win probability.

The 2.5-point spread indicates oddsmakers expect a close game, with a total of 46.5 points forecasting a relatively high-scoring affair.

 

Odds as of Sep. 29 at BetMGM Sportsbook. Browse the available NFL betting promos for Sunday Night Football.

Ravens Betting Analysis

The Ravens are a slightly deceiving 1-2 with two close losses to open the season before hanging on for a 28-25 road win over the Cowboys last week.

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens boast the NFL’s most efficient rushing attack, averaging a league-best 5.9 yards per carry. The addition of bruising RB Derrick Henry, who has 281 rushing yards (5th in NFL) and 4 TDs, makes this ground game even more dominant.

The Ravens lead the NFL in total offense (430.3 yards per game) and yards per play (6.6). If the Bills overcommit to stopping the run, Jackson (702 passing yards, 3 TDs) can make them pay through the air.

However, the Ravens’ usual elite defense has struggled, especially against the pass. They are allowing a league-worst 291.7 passing yards per game and 8.1 yards per attempt (5th-worst). This is a clear mismatch that Josh Allen and the Bills will look to exploit.

The Ravens are expected to play more zone coverage, which has proven effective against QBs like Allen who thrive vs man. Their strong front seven should also limit Buffalo’s run game. Look for Baltimore to try and control the middle of the field to limit big plays.

Bills Betting Analysis

The Bills enter as one of the NFL’s few remaining unbeaten teams at 3-0, outscoring opponents by a whopping 112-48 margin so far.

Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level, leading the Bills to a league-best 37.3 points per game. Through three games, Allen has totaled 634 passing yards with 7 TDs (2nd in NFL) and 0 INTs, while adding 2 rushing TDs. His 133.7 passer rating leads the NFL.

The Bills are averaging 6.4 yards per play (4th in NFL) and have only one giveaway. Allen’s top target Khalil Shakir has caught all 14 of his targets for 168 yards, while James Cook leads the rushing attack with 188 yards.

Defensively, the Bills are allowing the 2nd-fewest yards per play, have the 3rd-most takeaways, and the 5th-most sacks. They have been stout overall, but are more vulnerable to the run, allowing 4.7 yards per carry (24th in NFL).

However, the Bills are dealing with injuries to key defenders, especially at linebacker. This has left them susceptible over the middle of the field, an area the Ravens will look to attack with TEs Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely.

Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction

I believe this line is a bit of an overreaction to the teams’ records. A desperate 1-2 Ravens squad is being undervalued, while the undefeated Bills may be a bit overvalued. The public is hammering Buffalo in the NFL public betting trends, but the moneyline has shifted in favor of Baltimore.

I’m big on the Bills this season, but we can’t put too much stock into their first three games. Against Miami, the Dolphins were without QB Tua Tagovailoa for a large portion. Buffalo’s two other opponents, Arizona and Jacksonville, meanwhile, are nowhere near Super Bowl odds contenders.

The Ravens have played the rougher schedule, including a narrow loss to the Raiders, which could have easily gone the other way. They have the offensive firepower to trade blows with the Bills, and their defense matches up well to slow Buffalo’s attack. At home in primetime, I expect an inspired effort.

I might pick this game quite differently if it were late in the year and had more implications. The Bills clearly appear to be the more complete team. However, I’m banking on the Ravens’ desperation and the rushing ability of Henry and Lamar to power the team to victory Sunday.

SNF Pick Sep. 29:

 

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