- We’ve made our South Alabama vs App State prediction for Thursday’s lone CFB game
- The latest college football odds favor App State as 7-point home favorites
- Read below for South Alabama vs App State prediction, pick and odds
Week 4 of the college football season kicks off with a Fun Belt special as the South Alabama Jaguars travel to face the Appalachian State Mountaineers.
This Thursday night tilt at Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone, NC is the only action for college football bettors. ESPN will broadcast the 7:30 PM EDT kickoff to a national audience.
Oddsmakers have installed App State as a touchdown favorite, making the Mountaineers -7 with a total of 63.5 at most shops. Early betting action has been split, with the public backing the Jags and sharps pounding App State.
Let’s dive into the South Alabama vs App State prediction and analyze the Thursday CFB odds.
South Alabama vs App State Prediction
South Alabama’s defense has struggled mightily so far, surrendering 52 points to North Texas in the season opener. But their offense has been a juggernaut, hanging 87 on Northwestern State in a record-setting performance last week. Redshirt freshman QB Gio Lopez has been brilliant, tossing 4 TDs on just 19 attempts in that Jaguar rout.
On the other side, App State’s experienced signal caller Joey Aguilar is also off to a red-hot start. The senior has already posted a pair of 300+ yard passing performances and isn’t afraid to air it out. Speedy WR Kaedin Robinson (18 receptions, 290 yards) has emerged as his go-to target on the outside.
QB Joey Aguilar
Career-high 424 passing yards #GoApp pic.twitter.com/SDtMeT1b9u
— App State Football (@AppState_FB) September 15, 2024
These two QBs should put on an aerial display, but I give App State the advantage because of their balance offensively. Unlike the pass-happy Jaguars, the Mountaineers can also rely on a physical running game powered by bruising RB Anderson Castle.
App State’s stellar 10-1 record in their last 11 home contests is also hard to overlook, while South Alabama has stumbled to a 1-4 mark in their last 5 road games. I’ll lay the points with the more balanced and experienced Mountaineers on the short week. The Jaguars could also get caught looking ahead to next week’s trip to LSU.
I’m predicting a final score around Appalachian State 38, South Alabama 27 for Thursday night college football. Betting ugly is usually the key to making money in football; however, this is one game where you can play the favorite and the “over” and feel pretty confident you’re on the right side.
Thursday Night College Football Picks:
- Over 62.5 (-110)
- App State -7 (-115 at DraftKings)
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South Alabama vs App State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Alabama | +7.0 (-115) | +218 | Over 62.5 (-110) |
| Appalachian State | -7.0 (-105) | -280 | Under 62.5 (-110) |
App State is a deserving 7-point home favorite in this spot. Oddsmakers have pegged the Mountaineers with a 73% implied win probability, while South Alabama is a +218 dog with a 31.5% upset shot.
The point spread has fluctuated throughout the week, with App State being favored by as much as 8 points at some books. But steady action on South Alabama has brought it down to a consensus of -7 across the industry.
App State’s “night mode” uniforms with their throwback logo helmets for Thursday’s matchup with South Alabama
pic.twitter.com/ayFg7l30CS
— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) September 18, 2024
App State being favored comes as no surprise given their edge in experience at key positions and strong home field environment. They’ve won eight of their last 10 contests overall at Kidd Brewer Stadium. Conversely, South Alabama struggles away from home, covering the spread in just six of their last 19 road tilts.
As for the total,it’s set notably high at 62.5. App State’s games have only gone over this number once in 2024, but I’m banking on these explosive offenses to hit their stride on Thursday night. The over is 4-1 in the last five matchups between these foes, and I think we see more fireworks in Boone.
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Odds as of September 18, 2024, at ESPN Sportsbook. Claim the ESPN Bet promo code to bet on South Alabama vs App State.
H2H History
Appalachian State has dominated this series historically, winning four of the five all-time meetings. The Mountaineers have controlled the last 4, including a 31-7 blowout the last time these schools met at The Rock in 2021.
| Date | Result | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | South Alabama 47-21 | N/A | N/A |
| 2015 | App State 34-27 | N/A | N/A |
| 2018 | App State 52-7 | N/A | N/A |
| 2020 | App State 38-14 | N/A | N/A |
| 2021 | App State 31-7 | N/A | N/A |
App State has won those five matchups over the Jags by an average margin of 19.6 points per game.
The Jaguars’ lone win came way back in 2014 in Mobile, a 47-21 thrashing in the first-ever meeting between the programs. But App State has had their number ever since, winning the last three encounters by 24+ points.
Injury Report
The positive news for CFB bettors is that both teams come into this primetime showdown with a relatively clean bill of health. Neither squad has any major injuries to key players that would impact the outcome or your wagers.
South Alabama does have a slight rest advantage with two additional days to prepare after playing last Thursday, compared to App State taking the field on Saturday. That extra recovery time could benefit the Jaguars in the 4th quarter if this matchup stays competitive throughout.
However, App State has been in this spot before with midweek games in the Sun Belt. The Mountaineers are 4-2 ATS in their last six Thursday night appearances, so the short week shouldn’t pose too much of a problem for this veteran squad.
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