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Week 4 College Football Picks Against the Spread

  • Check out our Week 4 college football picks against the spread for Saturday (Sep. 21)
  • We’re off to a red-hot start in our 2024 CFB ATS picks; can we keep it up?
  • Below, see my best Week 4 college football picks against the spread, including a play on USC

We’re off to a promising start with our 2024 college football picks against the spread, and we’re aiming to keep the momentum going. Week 4 presents another full slate of games to capitalize on with our ATS wagers.

In my Week 4 college football picks against the spread, I’m targeting a couple of intriguing favorites and one massive underdog. Among my top Week 4 CFB picks against the spread is a play on USC in their marquee matchup with Michigan.

Let’s dive into our expert college football picks against the spread for Week 4 (Saturday, September 21st).

CFB ATS Picks Week 4

Matchup Pick (Odds)
USC vs Michigan USC -5 (-110)
Arkansas vs Auburn Arkansas +3 (-110)
UCLA vs LSU UCLA +24 (-110)

Let’s dive deeper into these three college football matchups and my reasoning for the CFB against the spread picks.

USC vs Michigan Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
USC -5 (-110) -215 Over 44.5 (-110)
Michigan +5 (-110) +180 Under 44.5 (-110)

All odds as of September 18th at ESPN Sportsbook. Check out the best football betting apps for college football against the spread betting.

ATS Pick #1: USC -5 (vs Michigan)

Kicking off my Week 4 college football picks against the spread is a play on the USC Trojans in their marquee matchup with the Michigan Wolverines. This line has completely shifted since Michigan opened as notable favorites during the offseason.

However, while USC is no longer plus-money, I like them to win by at least one score. USC has been impressive to start the season, upsetting LSU in Week 1 and shutting out Utah State 48-0 in Week 2 before enjoying a bye last week.

Quarterback Miller Moss has excelled in replacing Heisman winner Caleb Williams, throwing for 600 yards and two TDs in USC’s first two victories. The Trojans defense has also been a pleasant surprise, allowing just 100 rushing yards per game and ranking 55th nationally in total defense.

USC should be able to stack the box and dare Michigan to throw, a risky proposition for the Wolverines who are turning to the unproven Alex Orji at quarterback this week.

The Wolverines have truly struggled out of the gate in their national title defense. Michigan lost 31-12 at home to Texas and barely held off Arkansas State 28-18 last week as 21-point favorites.

Michigan’s passing game has been anemic, with just 134 yards and three interceptions against Arkansas State. Unless Orji provides a major spark, it’s hard to see the Michigan offense keeping pace with USC for four quarters, even with the game in Ann Arbor.

  • Pick: USC -5 (-110)

Arkansas vs Auburn Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Arkansas +3.0 (-110) +135 Over 56.5 (-110)
Auburn -3.0 (-110) -155 Under 56.5 (-110)

ATS Pick #2: Arkansas +3 (vs Auburn)

Another addition to my Week 4 college football picks against the spread is a play on the Arkansas Razorbacks in their SEC tilt with the Auburn Tigers. Both teams are sitting at 2-1, but I see all the value on the road underdog here.

This line has moved from Auburn -4 to -3 despite the Tigers getting the majority of bets in the college football public betting splits. This tells us where the sharp money is on this game. Short road underdogs of 4 points or less have covered in 72% of games so far this season.

Arkansas impressed by upsetting Oklahoma State on the road as 10-point underdogs just two weeks ago before beating UAB in Week 3. Dual-threat quarterback Taylen Green has given opponents fits with his rushing ability, amassing 245 yards on the ground through three games.

Auburn made a quarterback change last week, benching veteran Payton Thorne in favor of freshman Hank Brown. While Brown impressed with four touchdowns against New Mexico, the Lobos have a miserable defense.

Given some uncertainty at QB for Auburn, I expect the Tigers to rely heavily on star running back Jarquez Hunter. However, he’ll be facing a stout Arkansas defensive front led by preseason All-SEC pick Landon Jackson.

  • Pick: Arkansas +3 (-110)

UCLA vs LSU Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
UCLA +24 (-110) +1200 Over 55.5 (-110)
LSU -24 (-110) -2000 Under 55.5 (-110)

ATS Pick #3: UCLA +24.5 (vs LSU)

Concluding my Week 4 college football picks against the spread is a play on the UCLA Bruins as massive 24.5-point underdogs against the LSU Tigers. Yes, the Bruins are not a strong team this season, but I don’t think they will get completely blown out by the Tigers.

UCLA’s defense has also shown some promising signs early in the season. They are currently allowing just 87 rushing yards per game, which ranks 29th in the nation. The Tigers rank second-last in the SEC in rushing offense after losing at running back following a season-ending injury to John Emery.

Another factor to consider is that LSU has struggled to cover big numbers in recent years. In fact, the Tigers are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as a favorite. They have also covered just three times in their last 12 games during the season’s opening month.

UCLA QB Ethan Garbers isn’t setting the world on fire with his 54.1% completion percentage this season, but he’s at least experienced playing in hostile environments. I expert his familiarity with the offense and dual-threat ability to help keep UCLA within three scores.

  • Pick: UCLA +24.5 (-110)

Brady’s 2024 CFB ATS Picks Record: 10-2

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