- The 2-6 New York Jets host the 6-2 Houston Texans tonight on Thursday Night Football
- The Texans winning at MetLife Stadium headlines tonight’s TNF same-game parlay
- Below, see all three legs of a +475 Texans vs Jets SGP for Thursday Night Football
For the third time this season, Thursday Night Football heads to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, with the New York Jets playing host to the Houston Texans. Kickoff tonight is scheduled for 5:15 pm ET. Without Nico Collins and now Stefon Diggs, Houston are looking vulnerable to a Jets team desperate for their first win since Week 3. However, this week’s SGP is banking on New York finding out that the Texans are more than just two missing receivers.
Texans vs Jets Same-Game Parlay Picks
| Picks | Odds |
|---|---|
| Houston Texans Moneyline | +105 |
| Joe Mixon Anytime Touchdown | -145 |
| Tank Dell Over 4.5 Receptions | -120 |
| TOTAL HOU vs NYJ SGP ODDS | +475 |
SPORTSBOOK
Odds as of October 30th at Bet365 Sportsbook. Use the latest bet365 bonus code before betting on Texans vs Jets.
I’m not going to lie, I felt really good about last week’s Vikings vs Rams SGP right after kickoff. The Vikings and Rams both scored on their first drive, nearly locking up the first-half over right off the bat. But Kyren Williams started running and wouldn’t stop, crushing his rushing yards O/U for the night, making my “Justin Jefferson anytime TD” whiff far less egregious.
That’s why I’m focusing on just one team for this week’s NFL SGP, looking at how the Texans will perform now that they’re without their Top 2 receivers. My Week 9 Thursday Night Football SGP adds up to +475, where a $100 bet will net a profit of $475, but only if all three legs hit.
Ian’s 2024 NFL SGP Record: 2-5, +11.33 units
Texans vs Jets Same-Game Parlay Pick #1: Houston Texans Moneyline
The lines for Texas vs Jets have moved since the opening NFL Week 8 odds came out and I’m here to jump all over it.
Tonight’s moneyline odds now favor the Jets, following the news that Stefon Diggs will be lost for the season with a torn ACL. The odds shifting from the Texans to the Jets is completely reasonable, given that C.J. Stroud’s two biggest receiving options, Diggs and Nico Collins, are both out.
But that isn’t to say Stroud can’t make things happen with the likes of Joe Mixon, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz. And why couldn’t he? As Sascha Paruk laid out in his Texans vs Jets predictions, the Jets’ defense is deceptively subpar, ranking 20th in Defensive DVOA and 25th in takeaways.
I suppose you could give the Jets credit for ranking 12th in scoring and third in passing yards allowed, but those numbers feel awfully skewed when you realize they’re largely built from:
- facing the Titans’ league-worst pass offense,
- facing the Patriots’ second-worst offense twice,
- September’s “weather” game against the Broncos when neither team could move the ball,
- losing by two (nearly three) touchdowns to a 49ers team that didn’t rely on passing to win.
But the main reason to back the Texans on Thursday night is their defense. Ranked second in D-DVOA, second in Run-Block Win Rate, third in yards/play, and fourth in Pass Rush Win Rate, Demeco Ryans’ next-gen “Bulls on Parade” will terrorize Aaron Rodgers all night. No amount of cayenne pepper and water will make Rodgers feel better afterwards.
Texans vs Jets Same-Game Parlay Pick #2: Joe Mixon Anytime Touchdown
Again, I may be looking for holes to poke in their defense, but this stat is a significant one: the Jets are currently tied for fourth-worst in Rushing TDs Allowed. In 2024, they’ve given up 10 TDs on the ground; across eight games, that’s an average of 1.25 Rush TD/G.
Recently, that average has only worsened: in their past three games, the Jets have given up six rushing touchdowns, three from the hapless Patriots.
Knowing all that, who would you lean on to reach the end zone against the Jets? Why not the guy who’s averaging more than a TD per game? In case the header above wasn’t evidence enough, That would be Joe Mixon.
Joe Mixon out here playing like its 2016 man pic.twitter.com/GIAHSlEPoV
— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) October 30, 2024
Despite missing three games with an ankle injury, Mixon’s put up six TDs (five rushing, one receiving) in five games. He’s also averaging 20.4 Rush A/G, outpacing league-leader Derrick Henry, so you know Mixon will have opportunities to score.
Though the Jets’ RZ% is currently 57.7%, roughly the league median, all ten of the rushing TDs they’ve given up have come from inside the red zone, with only one longer than ten yards.
This is all just a long-winded way of saying that you can bank on Mixon hitting the end zone against the Jets.
Texans vs Jets Same-Game Parlay Pick #3: Tank Dell Over 4.5 Receptions
With Diggs and Collins both on the sidelines, who will be the “next man up” in the Texans’ receiving corps? I believe it’ll be Tank Dell and not just because he’s the new WR1 by default.
Dell was on the cusp of stardom in his rookie season, putting up seven TDs, 70.9 Y/G, and 4.7 Rec/G last year before fracturing his fibula. Those numbers have clearly gone down in 2024 with Diggs now on the roster, but Dell has been finding opportunities again since Collins went down.
Yes, he was blanked in Week 7 against the Packers, but Stroud only throwing for 86 yards earmarks this game as more an exception than a rule.
Ignoring that anomaly against Green Bay, Dell has recorded 15 receptions from 17 targets since Collins’ injury, all while Diggs was still on the field. If Dell was averaging 5.0 receptions as the Texans’ WR2, it stands to reason that number will goo up as a primary target.
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