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NFL Picks for Week 13: Expert & Computer Upset Predictions

  • Are you looking for some help in betting the remaining 12 games in Week 13 of the 2024-25 NFL season?
  • I have teamed up with my SBD formula to offer some expert NFL picks and computer NFL picks
  • See our Week 13 NFL picks below

Week 13 of the 2024-25 NFL season got started on Thanksgiving with three games, and had another to follow on Black Friday. But with no teams on bye this week, we still have 12 games to be played across Sunday and Monday of Week 13. If you’re unsure how to bet the remaining games, or just want your biases confirmed, I have rounded up my NFL picks and put them alongside my SBD formula’s picks for Week 13 as well, focusing on the underdogs we feel can pull off the upset.

My SBD formula and I are both coming off a rough last week picking upsets, where we each went 0-2 and combined for an 0-4 week. But I feel good about the response coming with the NFL picks for Week 13 below!

Week 13 NFL Picks

Expert NFL Moneyline Picks Computer NFL Moneyline Picks
Eagles over Ravens (+143 at Caesars) Steelers over Bengals (+140 at Caesars)
— Saints over Rams (+130 at ESPN Bet)
— Eagles over Ravens (+143 at Caesars)

I only have one upset pick for Week 13, but my SBD formula has three. However, the one underdog I am betting on the moneyline is also one of my formula’s picks. So, there are three underdogs above to bet. But before you bet any of the teams above, be sure to use our NFL odds page to find the best odds at the time you are reading this – the odds included in the table were from when I wrote this.

If you were hoping to get picks for every game of Week 13, you technically have. My SBD formula has favorites winning every other game across Sunday and Monday. To be clear on a couple games, the Seahawks and Chargers were the favorites in their respective matchups at the time of writing this. Should either of those two teams become underdogs between now and kickoff, that would be another upset pick for my SBD formula.

I also want to disclose that my SBD formula doesn’t really have many tight margins of victory this week. The closest margin of victory it has is the Seahawks beating the Jets by 3.8 points. All of the underdogs it likes to win above are predicted to win their respective games by at least 5.1 points. I typically share some deeper dives into my formula’s predictions on Twitter/X if you’re interested.

If you want more than just moneyline picks for Week 13 in the NFL, you can also check out Zach Reger’s NFL picks against the spread for Week 13, and John Hyslop’s Week 13 NFL props to bet. If you want some justification for my NFL upset pick above, keep scrolling!

Eagles Over Ravens

I view this Philadelphia vs Baltimore matchup as a true 50/50 game. I would argue the Eagles are the hottest, most confident team in football right now, and I believe they’re the team playing better football right now. As a result, I believe this game should be a pick’em, with Philadelphia’s hot streak nullifying the homefield advantage Baltimore has. With that in mind, I’ll happily take the +143 odds Caesars is offering on the Eagles to win.

There seems to be a formula for beating the Ravens this season: (1) neutralize Derrick Henry early on, (2) make Baltimore play with urgency by putting up some first quarter/half points, and (3) keep Lamar Jackson in the pocket. Those three things are much easier said than done, but I believe Vic Fangio’s defense can get this done.

Philadelphia has allowed the fewest yards in the NFL, and rank sixth in points allowed. Fangio’s specialty is shutting down his opponent’s rushing attack, and I think he has the bulk in the middle with Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter to slow down Henry, with the athleticism and scheme/coaching to keep Lamar’s legs in check as well.

Looking to Philadelphia’s secondary, it’s hard to find many units who have improved more year-over-year. Even if Darius Slay doesn’t suit up, I still like Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean (with the help of their great safeties) to hold up against Baltimore’s receivers. So, I expect them to really sell out to stop the run early, and then potentially put an extra spy on Lamar late in the game to keep him in the pocket.

Putting up those points early is something I think the Eagles are going to be capable of as well. The Ravens have allowed the second-most pass yards in the NFL, but they are the best defense against the run. I believe the dual threat of Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts running the ball, along with arguably the best offensive line in football, will allow them to have more success than most against this stout run defense.

I’m also confident in Hurts putting the ball in the air in the case Baltimore is shutting down the run. AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith won’t have any trouble getting open against this Ravens secondary, and Baltimore’s pass-rush has been average at best. So, I don’t foresee the Eagles having much trouble putting up points either.

Give me the Eagles to get a big win on the road!

  • Pick: Eagles moneyline (+143 at Caesars)
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