- Baylor is a 4-point favorite over LSU in the 2024 Texas Bowl on New Year’s Eve
- Several key Tigers won’t play after opting out or transferring
- Check out the latest Baylor vs LSU prediction, picks and betting lines, below
Baylor (8-4) looks to cap off a sizzling second half of the season with a win in the Texas Bowl on New Year’s eve. The Bears enter play riding a six-game winning streak, and will face an LSU (8-4) squad that’s been decimated by opt outs and the transfer portal.
The Tiger absences have caused major line movement in the College Football odds, prompting online sportsbooks to peg Baylor as chalk.
Baylor vs LSU Odds
| Teams | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor Bears | -4 (-110) | -166 | O 59.5 (-110) |
| LSU Tigers | +4 (-110) | +140 | U 59.5 (-110) |
Baylor is currently listed as 4-point favorites, after the contest opened as a pick’em. That line is a bit pricey for most bettors per the College Football public betting trends, as LSU is now dominating the spread action. The Tigers are drawing 81% of the tickets, and 74% of the handle.
Total-wise, the number is down half a point from its opener. The over/under currently sits at 59.5, with the over garnering 74% of the money.
SPORTSBOOK
Kickoff for the Texas Bowl is scheduled for 3:30 pm ET from NRG Stadium, in Houston, TX, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.
Odds as of December 30 at 3:30 pm ET. Be sure to check out the best sportsbook promotions before placing a bet on any College Football matchup this week.
LSU’s Key Absences
LSU’s offense is the unit that will feel the absences the most. The Tigers will be without both starting tackles Will Campbell and Emery Jones, who are opting out for the NFL Draft. Starting guard Garrett Dellinger is already down with ankle injury, meaning LSU will have just two of five starting linemen available.
Forever LSU
The time is now!! #DontPlay!
2⃣ #WRTS
pic.twitter.com/jOXZhOS9AE
— Kyren Lacy (@alltimegreattt) December 19, 2024
If that wasn’t bad enough, the Tigers have also lost leading receiver Kyren Lacy and number one tight end Mason Taylor per the College Football Bowl opt out tracker. To make matters worse, number three receiver CJ Daniels has entered the transfer portal, as has starting safety Sage Ryan.
Baylor vs LSU Breakdown
Those offensive losses are going to be tough to overcome considering what LSU is up against. Baylor’s offense has been on fire since mid-October, averaging 41.3 points per game. For context, that’s more than the season-long averages of all the remaining teams in the College Football Playoff Bracket.
QB Sawyer Robertson ranks sixth in the country in passer rating and is enjoying a career season. He set personal bests in both passing yards (2,626) and TD (26), becoming the first Bears pivot to hit those marks since 2014. Robertson did suffer a foot injury in the regular season finale, but has reportedly been a full-go in practice all week.
Sawyer Robertson is on another level
@BUFootball QB1 tosses his third TD pass of the afternoon to Hal Presley as the Bears extend their lead.#Big12FB |
ESPN2 pic.twitter.com/tbxwrHmVTk
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) October 19, 2024
Baylor is also getting major production from its run game. Redshirt freshman Bryson Washington averaged 136 yards per outing down the stretch, finishing with 10 TD over his final four games.
Defensively, the Bears lost just one starter (Corey Gordon) to the transfer portal, keeping that unit largely intact. They should be able to generate plenty of pressure versus the Tigers depleted line, which would wreak havoc on QB Garrett Nussmeier.
The Junior’s game falls off a cliff under pressure. His passing grade drops from 88.8 to 53.1, while his completion percentage dips below 50%. He has seven more turnover plays than big-time throws under duress, while his yards per attempt drops by 2 yards.
Nussmeier is already a volatile option under center even before the absences. He had four games this season with multiple picks, and he gives you nothing on the ground. Nussmeier finished the season with negative rushing yards for the third time in four collegiate seasons.
Baylor vs LSU Prediction
Given Baylor’s recent form and the key losses on the LSU side, we should expect the Bears to start strong. Their continuity should give them an early leg up, as it will likely take some time for the Tigers to find a rhythm without so many key players.
The spread market has perhaps moved too far in Baylor’s direction for the full game, but a first-half bet is still in play. Take the Bears on the moneyline in that market.
For the season, LSU averages just 13 first-half points away from home, and that’s with a full roster. Baylor, on the other hand, averages 19.5 first-half points on the road, a top-eight mark in the country.
- Baylor vs LSU Pick: Baylor 1st Half Moneyline (-142)
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