- #4 Arizona State is now a 12-point underdog vs #5 Texas in the College Football Playoff
- The winner advances to the CFP semifinal in the Cotton Bowl Jan 10
- Check out the Texas vs Arizona State updated odds, pick and our prediction below
A trip to the College Football Playoff semifinal is on the line when the No. 4 Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2, 1st Big 12) take on the No. 5 Texas Longhorns (12-2, 1st in SEC) in the Peach Bowl on New Year’s Day.
While the Longhorns are the heavy favorites to advance to the Cotton Bowl on January 10 to take on the winner of Oregon-Ohio State, the books have been bringing the spread down lower.
Texas vs Arizona State Odds
| Teams | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Longhorns | -12 (-110) | -480 | O 51.0 (-110) |
| Arizona State Sun Devils | +12 (-110) | +360 | U 51.0 (-110) |
The Longhorns are still massive 12-point favorites in the college football odds, with the total set at 51 points.
Kickoff is set for 1pm ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, in Atlanta, Georgia with ESPN providing the coverage.
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Odds as of Dec 30 (11 pm ET) at Caesars Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the best Caesars Sportsbook promos before placing a bet on any College Football Bowl games.
Tracking Texas vs Arizona State Line Movement
When this matchup formed after the College Football Playoff Opening Round, you could find the Sun Devils as long as two-touchdown underdogs.
While the status of WR Isaiah Bond (ankle) and right tackle Cameron Williams (knee) were unknown after both had sat out the Clemson win in the CFP opener, the line was down to about 12 points, where it currently stands.
Sometimes it just looks so easy for Isaiah Bond. Speed catches the corner and he’s gone.
50-yard TD pic.twitter.com/AtkyLokSTq
— CJ Vogel (@CJVogel_OTF) September 15, 2024
Depending on where you look, the spread is currently as low as 11.5 points. Bond has been announced as a go on January 1, but Williams is still a limited participant.
The Sun Devils were once as long as +425 on the moneyline, but you can’t find their juice any higher than +375. Texas had gone as short as -699, but mostly sit in the -480 to -525 range.
The highest total set for this matchup was 52.5 points, and has never dipped below 50.5 points, settling mostly at 51.
Can Sun Devils Shake Off Layoff?
While Texas needed a win to reach the CFP quarterfinals, the Sun Devils will have had 24 days off between games, last toppling Iowa State 45-19 in the Big 12 Championship.
ASU was playing at its apex before the layoff, having reeled off six straight wins, scoring 28 points or more in five of those wins and keeping four opponents at 21 points or fewer.
Mama, that @camskattebo5 is a BADDD MAN
ESPN+
https://t.co/0CMltGmpCV pic.twitter.com/CCT23wNfGB
— Sun Devil Football (@ASUFootball) October 19, 2024
Offensively, expect them to lean on a rush attack that ranked 23rd in college football, churning out 198.8 yards per game. They were led by stud Cam Skattebo, who ran for 1,568 yards and 19 TDs.
He’s helped prop up a pass attack led by quarterback Sam Leavitt’s, who threw for 2,663 passing yards and 29 total touchdowns.
Arizona State will also being a sturdy defense to Georgia, ranking 33rd in yards allowed, 28th against the rush and 63rd against the pass.
Longhorns Outlast Clemson to Advance
Shaking off the rust from an SEC title game loss to Georgia the last time it played, Texas did the job in the Opening Round, knocking off Clemson 38-24.
They were powered by a running game that racked up 292 yards and four scores on a hefty 6.1 yards per carry.
Both Jaydon Blue and Quintrevion Wisner rushed for 100+ yards and two scores each, while Quinn Ewers did just enough, throwing for 202 yards, a TD and an INT to hold off the Tigers.
JAYDON BLUE, HOW DO YOU DO?!?!
A 77-YARD TOUCHDOWN TO MAKE IT A TWO-SCORE GAME VS. CLEMSON
pic.twitter.com/cCzmh6V5W2
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 22, 2024
It was a bit of a reverse from the regular season, where Texas ranked 17th in the nation in passing, putting up 275.4 air yards per game, while its 173.5 rush yards ranked 50th.
The Longhorns are hoping the defense shook off its rust in that one. Second in the nation in points allowed at 13.3 points per game, the 24 Clemson points were tied for the second-most allowed in a game this season.
Texas vs Arizona State Prediction
Texas brings a stout run defense to the table, a Top 10 unit that allowed just 104.6 yards per game on the year.
Their pass D is second in the NCAA, allowing just 156.7 yards, but Clemson QB Cade Klubnik showed it can be punctured, throwing for 336 yards and three scores — the most passing yards allowed by the Longhorns in a game this season.
Arizona State seems to be fine as the underdog, going an impressive 4-2-0 against the spread this season.
A look at the public betting odds and everyone thinks Texas will advance: they are getting 95% of the bets and 92% of the money on the moneyline.
However, ASU is catching the Longhorns at just the right time, and they’re getting just enough points that you’ve got to take them.
- Pick: Arizona State +12 (-110)
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