Arch Manning Opens as Heisman Favorite at Multiple Online Sportsbooks

Arch Manning has opened as the Heisman Favorite at ESPN Bet ahead of Garrett Nussmeier
Only two first-year starting QB’s have ever won the Heisman
Check out the updated 2025 Heisman Trophy odds, plus our favorite bet to win the award

Has the Arch Manning hype gone too far? If you ask Texas’s new starting QB, it absolutely has. Manning told the media this week he hasn’t done nearly enough on the field to earn the notoriety he’s receiving. Online sportsbooks apparently disagree. Several books, including ESPN BET and DraftKings, have opened Manning as the frontrunner to win Player of the Year next season.

2025 Heisman Trophy Odds

Player	Odds
Arch Manning, QB (Texas)	+750
Garrett Nussmeier, QB (LSU)	+800
Nico Iamaleava, QB (Tennessee)	+1100
Cade Klubnik, QB (Clemson)	+1200
Drew Allar, QB (Penn State)	+1200
Dante Moore, QB (Oregon)	+1500
Jeremiah Smith, WR (Ohio State)	+1500
Julian Sayin, QB (Ohio State)	+1800
LaNorris Sellers, QB (South Carolina)	+1800
Carson Beck, QB (Miami)	+2200
DJ Lagway, QB (Florida)	+2200
John Mateer, QB (Oklahoma)	+2200
Gunner Stockton, QB (Georgia)	+3000
Sam Leavitt, QB (Arizona State)	+3000
Austin Simmons, QB (Ole Miss)	+4000

*Odds as of January 31 at ESPN Bet.

Manning is the +750 favorite in the Heisman Trophy odds, just ahead of LSU pivot Garrett Nussmeier at +800. Nussmeier was the initial top choice last week at several books, but it looks like the shine has already worn off.

Penn State QB Drew Allar and Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik round out the top-four on the oddsboard, while Ohio State stud receiver Jeremiah Smith is the first position player listed at +1600.

Manning Looking to Buck Family Trend

Believe it or not, no Manning has ever won the Heisman. Arch’s uncle Peyton never finished higher than sixth in the voting, while both his uncle Eli and grandfather Archie’s best finishes were third.

There are a few things working in Arch’s favor. Quarterbacks have dominated this award over the past 23 years, winning 18 times. Corner/receiver Travis Hunter snapped a run of four straight QB winners this past season, while wideout Devonta Smith broke another 4-year QB run in 2020.

The Heisman winner usually comes from a team in the National title hunt. Since 2000, 14 winners have made it to the National Championship Game. That bodes well for Manning, as his Longhorns will be among the preseason favorites. Five of the past eight winners were selected first overall in the NFL Draft, and Arch is the early favorite to go number 1 in 2026.

What’s working against him is a lack of experience. Yes, he’s been a backup to Quinn Ewers in college for two years, but the 2025 campaign will mark his first as a starter. He has only two career starts under his belt, and those came against lightweights Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State. Just two first-year starters (Johnny Manziel and Jameis Winston) have ever won the Heisman, and no one has done it since 2013.

The Arch Manning hype is insane. I think he’ll be a good player, but crowning him a top 5 quarterback in all of college football before he’s become a starter seems a bit wild. https://t.co/iirlezyeO2
— Dylan Holt (@DylanHolt_) January 23, 2025

Another reason to be bullish on his Heisman chances is his wideout corps. Texas is losing its top-two receivers and their number one tight end to the NFL. Yes, they’re returning a pair of promising pass catchers, and adding some new recruits, but it will take time to build chemistry with a young receiving room.

Arch certainly has the talent to be a future star, but there are more experienced quarterbacks (Nussmeier and Allar among others) who are poised to put up much better stats. Like Manning, they’ll also suit up for ranked programs, and boast more favorable odds with similar ceilings.

Buy Stock in Smith

Since 2016, only quarterbacks and wide receivers have won the Heisman. The quarterback class is strong in 2025, but it’s hard to imagine any of those players becoming a bigger star in the NFL than Smith. Does that alone make him a good bet to win the Heisman? No, but there are plenty of reasons that do.

For one, he plays like a man among boys already at the age of 18. Smith put up 1,315 receiving yards and 15 TD in his freshman season. He dominated the College Football Playoffs, scoring five times, while amassing 381 yards.

Smith is the ideal combination of size, speed and athleticism. He’s good enough to play in the NFL today, and is only going to get better. His Buckeyes will once again be a National Championship odds contender next season, and he’ll be in the running for the first overall selection in the 2027 NFL Draft. At +1600 on DraftKings, he’s a screaming value.

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