David Benavidez vs. David Morrell Jr. Prediction, Odds & How to Watch

David Benavidez is a -240 favorite over David Morrell (+190) in their February 1st light heavyweight clash
The WBA (Regular) and interim WBC light heavyweight titles are on the line in this battle of unbeaten rising stars
Read on for a complete Benavidez vs Morrell preview with expert predictions and latest betting odds

The light heavyweight division takes center stage on February 1st when David “The Mexican Monster” Benavidez and David Morrell Jr. put their undefeated records on the line at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Both fighters are coming off decision wins in their 175-pound debuts last year and are eager to prove they’re the next big thing in boxing’s glamour division.

Benavidez (29-0, 24 KOs) is a two-time super middleweight champ making his second appearance at light heavy after outpointing Oleksandr Gvozdyk last June. Morrell (11-0, 9 KOs) also stepped up in his last outing, claiming the WBA (Regular) title against Radivoje Kalajdzic.

Oddsmakers see Benavidez’s experience advantage giving him a clear edge. Here’s an updated look at the Benavidez vs Morrell betting odds, plus my prediction for this can’t-miss collision.

Latest Benavidez vs Morrell Odds

Fighter	Odds
David Benavidez	-240
David Morrell	+190

David Benavidez is priced as a solid -240 favorite over David Morrell (+190) at ESPN Sportsbook. The 28-year-old knockout artist has roughly a 70.6% implied win probability in this light heavyweight title tilt.

A $240 wager on Benavidez would return $100 if he gets his hand raised, while a $100 bet on Morrell would net $190 if the Cuban stylist pulls off the minor upset.

Odds as of January 30, 2025, at ESPN. Get the best ESPN promo code when betting on Benavidez vs. Morrell.

This Premier Boxing Champions mega-fight headlines a stacked pay-per-view card on Prime Video, 8 p.m. ET. The winner will be first in line to challenge for undisputed light heavyweight supremacy against the Artur Beterbiev-Dmitry Bivol rematch victor.

Benavidez vs Morrell Tale of the Tape

Benavidez

Morrell

28	Age	27
6’2″ (188cm)	Height	6’1″ (185cm)
74.5″ (189cm)	Reach	78.5″ (179cm)
29-0 (24 KOs)	Record	11-0 (9 KOs)
1	Titles Held	1

David Benavidez Betting Outlook & Analysis

Benavidez will be the more proven commodity when he steps through the ropes on February 1st. The relentless pressure fighter has already picked up interim gold in two divisions and boasts wins over former champions like Demetrius Andrade and Caleb Plant.

David Benavidez rallying in the 2nd half of the fight to defeat Caleb Plant via Unanimous Decision pic.twitter.com/b8GJM7hl40
— Tokkerū (@ATokkers5) January 30, 2025

Facing a similarly aggressive foe in Morrell, look for “El Bandera Roja” to do what he does best: march forward and let his hands go. Benavidez’s high-volume attack is built around a piston-like jab that sets up blistering combinations to the head and body. He landed 38% of his total punches to the body against Oleksandr Gvozdyk and the blueprint will be the same here.

To keep the momentum rolling, Benavidez needs to tidy up his footwork and not get overly reliant on being the bigger man. The 28-year-old can still lunge into shots or rely too much on his head movement when things get hairy. But if he can cut off the ring consistently and force the action, Morrell will have a hard time keeping up with his output.

David Morrell Betting Outlook & Analysis

Morrell may only have 11 pro fights, but don’t get it twisted – the Cuban expat is the real deal. The former amateur standout has found his rhythm as a pro and continues racking up statement wins with his slick southpaw style.

While not a one-punch knockout artist, Morrell gets the job done with his punch variety and sniper-like accuracy. He’s especially dangerous countering in the pocket, where he fires off razor-sharp combos and piercing uppercuts.

Size and reach will be an issue against the hulking Benavidez though. Morrell didn’t seem bothered by the extra pounds in his light heavyweight debut, but Gvozdyk made him work harder than expected down the stretch. Expect him to stay mobile early, darting in and out of range to disrupt Benavidez’s rhythm.

If he’s going to beat the odds, Morrell needs to pot-shot from the outside and make Benavidez pay every time he tries to bull his way inside. Steering clear of the ropes and circling to his right will also be key to avoiding those thudding Benavidez body shots.

Benavidez vs Morrell Prediction & Pick

I’m backing Benavidez to pull away late and hand Morrell his first pro loss in a grueling battle.

This one will be nip and tuck early, with Morrell banking the first few rounds on activity and clean punching. But there’s a reason Benavidez is the oddsmakers’ pick – over 12 rounds, his suffocating pressure and body work are going to take a toll.

By the midway point, look for Benavidez to start walking Morrell down and unloading his patented combos. The Cuban’s footwork will start betraying him as his gas tank dips, and that’s when Benavidez goes to work with hooks and uppercuts in close.

If it gets to the scorecards, I think Benavidez will pull out a close but clear decision by sweeping the back half of the fight. He just keeps too intense a pace and has the chin to walk through Morrell’s counters. I wouldn’t completely rule out a late stoppage either if Benavidez really pours it on.

Ultimately, for my Saturday boxing prediction, I’ll say Benavidez wins a competitive but convincing 8 rounds to 4 type fight. He’s been to the big dance before, and I trust him to dig deep if needed. That said, don’t count out a motivated Morrell, who will certainly come to fight.

Pick: David Benavidez by unanimous decision (+115)

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