Will Aaron Rodgers Retire? Odds Favor NFL Return in 2025

Sportsbooks offering odds on whether Aaron Rodgers will retire by start of NFL free agency
The 4-time NFL MVP is +200 to call it quits, -265 to return for his 21st season
Read below for for our prediction on Rodgers’ future following emotional end to 2024 campaign

After another disappointing season with the New York Jets, speculation is rampant about whether Aaron Rodgers will retire or return for a 21st year in the NFL.

Sportsbooks have weighed in by posting odds on Rodgers’ playing status for 2025. The four-time MVP is a +200 underdog to announce his retirement by March 12th, the start of the new league year and free agency.

Let’s dive into the Aaron Rodgers retirement odds, and provide you with our expert prediction for the veteran’s future.

Aaron Rodgers Retirement Odds

Outcome	Odds	Bet $100 To Win
No	-265	$37.74
Yes	+200	$200

Odds via FanDuel Ontario. May not be available in all jurisdictions. Current as of Jan. 30, 2025.

Continuing his Hall of Fame career is the odds-on favorite at -265 (bet $265 to win $100), according to FanDuel Ontario. This is a implied probability of 76.2%.

The book has set a deadline of March 10th at 1:00 AM ET for bets to be placed. A $100 bet would net $200 in profit if he hangs up the cleats by then.

Rodgers’ Difficult Run With Jets

Rodgers’ future is very much up in the air after two trying seasons in New York. The 41-year-old joined the Jets in 2023 with dreams of leading the franchise to its first Super Bowl since Joe Namath, but tore his Achilles just four plays into the season opener.

Breaking: An MRI confirmed today that Aaron Rodgers officially tore his Achilles on the fourth play of his Jets’ career, sources told @adamschefter.

Rodgers’ season is now over. pic.twitter.com/w3p7zfyBWF
— ESPN (@espn) September 12, 2023

He returned healthy in 2024 determined to prove he was still an elite QB. But playing behind a shaky offensive line and with few weapons outside youngster Garrett Wilson, Rodgers struggled to recapture his Green Bay magic. The 10-time Pro Bowler threw for 3,897 yards, 28 TDs and 11 interceptions as the Jets stumbled to a 5-12 record.

Fighting back tears after a season-ending win over Miami, an emotional Rodgers said he needs time to decide his next step. “I have to see if I still have the desire to play,” he told reporters. “I won’t hold anyone up.”

Factors Pointing To A Return

Several signs point to Rodgers suiting up for at least one more season, even if it’s not with the Jets.

For one, the ultra-competitive QB may not want the final chapter of his storied career to be a losing campaign marred by injuries and dysfunction. Despite the rough year, Rodgers still flashed brilliance at times, like when he tossed four TDs against the Dolphins to become just the fifth player in NFL history with over 500 passing scores.

His massive contract is another incentive to keep playing. Rodgers has one year remaining on the 3-year, $150 million deal he signed with Green Bay, which the Jets absorbed when they traded for him. Walking away would mean leaving $50+ million on the table.

If Rodgers does decide to keep playing, where he takes snaps in 2025 is very much up in the air. He acknowledged that the Jets will likely want to “go young” at QB and seemed at peace with a potential split. The team just fired the GM and head coach who brought Rodgers in.

But even at age 41 (and turning 42 next December), Rodgers will have suitors. The Raiders, Steelers, and Titans are among the QB-needy teams that could view him as the missing piece to instant contention. Going to a ready-made roster while still collecting his huge salary could be an attractive final act for Rodgers, especially if it offers a chance to go out on top with a second ring.

Aaron Rodgers Retirement Prediction

When you put it all together, I agree with oddsmakers that Rodgers is more likely to play in 2025 than retire. However, I’d be surprised if it’s with the Jets.

His play declined sharply from his back-to-back MVP seasons in 2020 and 2021, but he still has plenty of elite football left in him if he’s healthy and motivated. Moving on from New York while the team rebuilds could provide a much-needed fresh start.

Rodgers himself said he won’t drag out the process, and that his decision will likely come before the start of free agency in March. But like his frenemy Tom Brady, he’s earned the right to keep the football world hanging on his every word until he’s ready to reveal his choice.
Pick:

No, Rodgers will not retire (-265)

The post Will Aaron Rodgers Retire? Odds Favor NFL Return in 2025 appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

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