Alabama vs Tennessee Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks

#6 Tennessee hosts #5 Alabama on Saturday, March 1
The Volunteers have won the last three matchups with the Crimson Tide
See below for the latest Alabama vs Tennessee odds, picks, and predictions

The month of March kicks off with a great game between #5 Alabama (23-5, 8-2 away, 16-12 ATS) and #6 Tennessee (23-5, 14-1 home, 16-12 ATS). Both teams are battling for seeding in the SEC tournament that will tip off in a couple of weeks.

Contrasting styles will be at play on Saturday as the No. 1 team in defensive efficiency hosts the No. 3 team in offensive efficiency. Tipoff for this top ten SEC showdown is scheduled for 4 pm ET at Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville.

Keep reading for the latest odds and my Alabama vs Tennessee prediction.

Alabama vs Tennessee Odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Alabama Crimson Tide	+3.5 (-110)	+150	Over 154.5 (-110)
Tennessee Volunteers	-3.5 (-110)	-180	Under 154.5 (-110)

The Volunteers head into Saturday as 3.5-point favorites over Alabama. Tennessee has won each of the last three matchups between these programs, and in all of those games, Tennessee won by at least seven points. That includes a 20-point victory the last time they played each other in Knoxville.

This is just the second time that Alabama has been an underdog of at least 3.5 points. They won the first one outright 85-80 against Houston as a 4-point underdog back in November.

The total opened at 153.5 but has since moved to 154.5. The result of the over/under will come down to who has the edge between Alabama’s offense and Tennessee’s defense.

Alabama vs Tennessee Prediction

This will be another exciting game in the SEC as we near the end of the regular season. After losing two straight games earlier this month, Alabama bounced back nicely with a pair of wins against #17 Kentucky 96-83 and #24 Mississippi State 111-73. Both of those games were at home, and now Alabama hits the road for another SEC test against #5 Tennessee.

The Crimson Tide are not worried about letting other teams score. In fact, Alabama is 348th in the country allowing over 80 points per game. The reason they are okay with that is because they score 91.5 points per contest and are fresh off a 111-point outing.

Tennessee on the other hand is fifth in the nation in scoring defense. The Volunteers are known for their defense, and with Rick Barnes as head coach, Tennessee likes to be the more physical team on the glass and play suffocating defense. The Volunteers allow 60.8 points per game and let their opponents shoot just 27.3% from three. This game is a true battle of strengths, so who will be victorious? Alabama’s high-powered offense or Tennessee’s strong defense?

Tennessee might not have the offensive firepower of Alabama, but they have shown that they can score points when needed. They average 74.3 points per game and are 25th in offensive efficiency, so they are not strictly a defensive team. Alabama also has had a problem with turnovers this season. They average over 13 per game and Mark Sears and Grant Nelson were both called out by head coach Nate Oats in a press conference earlier this month. That is a major problem on the road in Knoxville, and that is why I am giving the edge to Tennessee in this matchup.

Alabama vs Tennessee Expert Picks

Tennessee -3.5 (-110)

Alabama is like Ricky Bobby and wants to go fast, while Tennessee wants to slow the game down. The Crimson Tide are ranked first in adjusted tempo, while Tennessee is all the way down at 346. In matchups like this, I normally lean towards the team that goes faster and gets more possessions, but I do not think that will be the case here. If Alabama has to slow down and play half-court offense, the advantage goes to Tennessee and their defense.

I like backing the team with the better defense and this matchup makes that easier, especially with the better defense being at home. Alabama loves to shoot the three, and they are very good at it, but they should struggle against this Volunteer perimeter defense. Thompson-Boling Arena will be rocking, especially after each inevitable turnover that Alabama has. Tennessee has won the last three in this series, and I believe they win again on Saturday with their physicality and defense. Take the Volunteers to cover the spread on Saturday.

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