- The Pacers are 7.5-point home favorites over the Bucks in Game 5 of their first-round playoff series
- On the brink of elimination, Milwaukee will be missing Damian Lillard (Achilles), who is out for the rest of the season
- See my Bucks vs Pacers Game 5 predictions, plus player props and best odds
The Indiana Pacers can punch their ticket to the second round of the NBA playoff bracket tonight by knocking off the Milwaukee Bucks one more time. Indiana leads the best-of-seven series 3-1, and online sportsbooks have made them the biggest favorite of any game in this series so far, laying 7.5 points and sitting at -340 on the moneyline.
Tip-off for Game 5 is scheduled for 6:10pm ET inside the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.
Milwaukee vs Indiana Injury News
Milwaukee was already going to be hard pressed to win this series. They’ve been completely outplayed in three of the four games, and not even Giannis Antetokounmpo’s heroics could save them from falling behind. Now, down 3-1, any thought of a comeback just got a whole lot harder.
That’s because the Bucks lost second-leading scorer Damian Lillard to an Achilles injury in Game 4. Lillard had just worked his way back from a serious blood clot issue, but now his postseason run is over, and his 2025-2026 campaign is also in jeopardy.
Without Lillard, I don’t think there’s anyway the Bucks reel off three straight wins. Milwaukee just doesn’t have the depth behind Giannis on offense and, on defense they’re a train wreck.
If they keep it up, they could make a serious run in the NBA Championship odds. I expect another high-scoring output from the Pacers to close out the Bucks in Game 5.
Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers Prediction
- Pacers Team Total over 115.5 Points (-110) at FanDuel
Which is why I’m predicting Indiana exceeds its team total for the fourth time in five games. The Bucks enter play with the second worst defensive rating in the playoffs, ahead of only Miami. Milwaukee is allowing a true shooting percentage of 62.6%, and a 40% mark from beyond the arc.
They lack the quickness to keep up with Indiana’s quicker guards, and have struggled to defend the Pacers spacing. That’s resulted in a bevy of open shots for Indiana, and they’ve done an excellent job of knocking them down. The Pacers are generating 23.5 open threes per game. That’s wild. By contrast, the Knicks and Pistons, two of the East’s other playoff teams, are producing only 11 open three-point looks per contest.
Part of that is due to Indiana’s aforementioned speed and spacial awareness, but Milwaukee is as just much to blame. The Bucks are not playing sound defense. They’re struggling to rotate and are too quick to collapse on the ball carrier. The result, open triples.
MIL vs IND Advanced Stats (Playoffs)
Milwaukee has yet to adjust in the first four games, so there’s no reason to expect anything to change tonight. The Pacers are averaging 117.5 points per game this series and 32 assists. Extrapolated over an entire season, and those marks would rank Indiana seventh in scoring and number one in assists.
MIL vs IND Player Props
NBA props from DraftKings Sportsbook on April 29. Download the top NBA betting apps before the NBA playoffs.
- Aaron Nesmith Over 2.5 Threes (+140 at DraftKings)
Switching over to the player props market, where I’m betting over 2.5 threes for Aaron Nesmith at +140 odds. Nesmith has cleared this line in two of his three games, thanks to a bump in volume. He’s averaging six three-point attempts per contest, with four of those looks being of the wide open variety.
With so much defensive attention on Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, the Bucks lose track of Nesmith. That leads to uncontested triples, which he’s knocking down at a 50% clip.
Bucks vs Pacers Odds
The best price we can get on over 115.5 points for Indiana is -110 at FanDuel. DraftKings has the most competitive game lines, listing the Pacers as 7.5 point favorites and -340 on the moneyline. Milwaukee comes back as +270 underdogs, while the total sits at 222.
Odds as of April 29 at DraftKings. See the DraftKings promo code details before signing up.
Per the NBA public betting trends, Indiana has covered in all three of its victories so far, while both the over and under have hit twice.
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