Nuggets vs Clippers Game 6 Odds

The Denver Nuggets can oust the LA Clippers in Game 6 in Los Angeles on Thursday, May 1
Denver went from +135 underdog to -205 favorite to win the best-of-seven series after taking a pivotal Game 5
See the opening Nuggets vs Clippers Game 6 odds plus updated DEN/LAC series price

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets made oddsmakers look foolish on Tuesday night, blowing out the visiting LA Clippers 131-115 as +105 home underdogs, and taking a 3-2 lead in the best-of-seven series in the process. On Thursday, the Nuggets (50-32, 24-17 away) will have a chance to end the series when the visit the Clippers (50-32, 30-11 home) at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood at 7:10 pm PT/10:10 pm ET.

The fourth straight game in this series, sportsbooks give LA the edge, setting the home team as a sizable favorite in the Game 6 Nuggets/Clippers odds.

Bet Type	DEN	LAC
Spread	+5.5 (-110)	-5.5 (-110)
Moneyline	+190	-230
Total	O 209.0 (-110)	U 209.0 (-110)

The Clippers have opened as 5.5-point favorites in Thursday’s NBA odds. On the moneyline, LAC is a -230 home favorite with Jokic and the Nuggets coming back as +190 underdogs to end the series and advance to the second round of the NBA playoff bracket. The game total has opened at 209.0.

Odds as of April 30 at DraftKings. Learn all you need to know about online slots with SBD’s guide.

Game 5 was the first in the series to hit the over. The total for Game 1 closed at 217.5 and the O/U steadily decreased over the next four games before closing at 209.5 in Game 4. The teams soared past them number on Tuesday night, combining for 246 points, yet the Game 6 total has opened at a series-low 209.

One of the most-encouraging aspects of Game 5 for Denver fans was that the Nuggets were able to run LA out of the building without Jokic playing super-human ball. After posting a 36-point, 21-rebound double-double (with eight assists) in Game 4, Jokic was held to 13 points, 10 rebounds, and 12 assists in Game 5.

Jamal Murray led the Nuggets in scoring with a massive 43-point output while Russell Westbrook added a huge 21 points off the bench after missing Game 4 with an injury. Westbrook’s Game 5 output more than quintupled Denver’s entire bench output in Game 4 (four points). The Clippers didn’t play poorly on offense in Game 5, shooting 51.3% from the field. But they allowed Denver to connect at a 55.3% clip from the floor and an outrageous 51.5% from three (17-of-33).

The Nuggets also finished +1 in rebounding and +2 in turnovers.

The fact that Denver held a double-digit lead throughout the majority of the second half meant that coach David Adelman was able to get his over-used starters some valuable rest. Each one played 42 minutes or more in Game 4, but none played more than 40 minutes in Game 5, and all but Murray played 37.

Denver Nuggets vs LA Clippers Series-Winner Odds

Team	Odds to Win Series
DEN Nuggets	-205
LA Clippers	+172

It’s hard to overstate the importance of Denver’s Game 5 victory. As I touched on in the Lakers/Timberwolves series odds and Warriors/Rockets series odds, teams that go up 3-1 in a best-of-seven series have gone onto win just over 95% of those best-of-sevens. But the stats for teams that are up 3-2 aren’t that much worse.

Altogether, teams up 3-2 in a best-of-seven series have gone onto win 83.7% of those series (293-57 all-time).

Yet, Denver is listed as just a -205 favorite to win their first-round series with the Clippers, with LAC a +172 underdog to win Games 6 and 7. That amounts to just a 67.21% implied win probability for Denver and a 36.76% implied win probability for Los Angeles, which is much higher than the historical win rate for teams down 3-2.

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