- The Fourth Round of the French Open is set for Sunday at Roland Garros
- Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz faces American Ben Shelton on Center Court
- Keep reading for my Alcaraz vs Shelton picks and predictions below, plus odds and other best bets for Sunday’s matchups
Sunday marks the Fourth Round at the French Open and a bit of history for the American men. 22-year-old Ben Shelton is now the fourth youngest American to reach Round 4 in all four Majors, while he and Tommy Paul’s advancement to this stage marks the first time since since 2001 that two US men have reached the Fourth Round at Roland Garros in the same year.
Unfortunately, I don’t expect either man to make the quarters. Shelton will face defending champion Carlos Alcaraz on Sunday, while a tired Paul will battle rising star Alexi Popyrin.
French Open Picks & Predictions (Sunday, June 1st)
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Shelton is a major underdog to beat Alcaraz, getting +1100 odds to pull off the upset. That match is the first one I’m targeting on my French Open betting card, so keep reading for all my predictions and picks below.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Ben Shelton Prediction
- Pick: Over 30.5 Games (-125)
I’m staying away from the moneyline and spread for the Alcaraz-Shelton match, and focusing on the total games market instead. Alcaraz hasn’t had his best stuff this week, and the matchup against Shelton is a potential dangerous one.
In his own words, Alcaraz suffered quite a lot in his third-round win over Damir Dzumhur. Alcaraz missed multiple easy shots, taking his foot off the gas and letting Dzumhur back in the match. He dropped the third set and fell down a break in the fourth, missing out on six break-point opportunities along the way. Eventually, he righted the ship, but the lack of focus against lesser talent is not new.
Alcaraz vs Shelton H2H Results
Alcaraz has lost 10 matches to opponents ranked outside the top-10 over the last year. He’s dropped multiple sets to inferior talent so far at Roland Garros, while Shelton’s powerful game will test the Spaniard.
Shelton has had an up-and-down clay season, but his ceiling is sky high. He reached the final in Munich, and is now in the midst of his best-ever French Open run. He’s a huge step up in talent over Alcaraz’s previous foes this week, and if those players can take a set off him, Shelton will have the opportunity to push this match to four or even five sets.
Lorenzo Musetti vs Holger Rune Picks
- Pick: Rune +3.5 (-110)
On paper, the most competitive match of the day should be #8 Lorenzo Musetti vs #10 Rune. Both men had to overcome serious adversity in the Third Round, with Rune facing two match points and Musetti down a set and a break before rallying.
Museti has been a man on a mission on clay this season, winning the 1000 series event in Monte-Carlo, while reaching the semis in Madrid and Rome. Rune meanwhile, also has a clay court title in 2025, and became just the ninth man to reach the Round of 16 in each of his first four appearances.
I’m going to lean on Rune’s experience and clay court pedigree in this battle. Of players age 25 or younger, only Alcaraz and Sebastian Baez have more victories on clay than Rune. He’s beaten Musetti in their last two meetings, and is 4-1 against top-10 competition this season. The Italian, on the other hand, is just 4-4 versus top-10 foes.
Alexei Popyrin vs Tommy Paul Prediction
- Pick: Alexei Popyrin Moneyline (+125)
They might as well label American Tommy Paul the Marathon Man. The 9th seed played his second consecutive 5-setter in the Third Round, eventually dispatching Karen Khachanov 6-3 in the decisive frame. Paul has now played 14 sets of tennis through three matches, while his fourth-round opponent #25 Alexei Popyrin, has yet to drop a set.
To make matters worse, Paul is battling more than fatigue ahead of Sunday’s contest. The American has been nursing a lower ab injury all week, which is problematic versus the rising Popyrin.
The Australian was the boys’ champion at Roland Garros in 2017, and is in the midst of some of the best tennis of his career. He recently won a 1000 series event and has reached the quarters in back-to-back clay court tournaments. Popyrin is one win away from his first Grand Slam quarterfinal, and I’m betting that happens on Sunday.
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