- Paris Saint-Germain & Inter Milan face off on Saturday, May 31st, in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League final
- Underdogs Inter are looking to win their fourth title while PSG are making just their second finals appearance
- See the PSG vs Inter Champions League Final odds, picks & predictions ahead of kickoff on Saturday
The big day is finally here! The 2025 UEFA Champions League season is ready to come to its rousing conclusion when Paris Saint-Germain face Inter Milan in the final at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany. Kickoff for PSG/Inter is set for 3 pm ET.
The French champions are favorites heading into the final, with PSG hoping to add a first Champions League title to this season’s Ligue 1 and Coupe de France trophies. Standing in their way are an Inter squad trying to pick up their first piece of silverware of the year, after coming up short in both Serie A and the Coppa Italia.
PSG vs Inter Milan Champions League Final Odds
PSG are +120 favorites to win in regulation on the three-way moneyline, while Inter are +240 to win in regular time. Odds for the match to be a draw after ninety minutes are +230.
Similarly, PSG are -163 favorites to lift the trophy (to win, whether in regulation, added extra time, or in penalties), and Inter are +130 underdogs to win the title. Odds on “both teams to score” is a modest -125, whereas a BTTS “no” is getting -106. Over 2.5 goals is set at +100, with the under at -125.
SPORTSBOOK
Odds above as of May 30th at bet365 Sportsbook. Get the latest bet365 promo code before betting on the UEFA Champions League final.
Paris Saint-Germain’s Road to the UCL Final
If I’m being honest, it’s difficult to remember the bumpy origins of PSG’s path to the Champions League final. After opening with a 1-0 home win over Spanish minnows Girona, Les Parisiens initially scuffled their way through the inaugural UCL league format, chasing that opening victory with a loss at Arsenal, a draw vs PSV Eindhoven, a loss at Atletico Madrid, and another loss vs Bayern Munich.
Though they effectively went wire-to-wire domestically, capturing the Ligue 1 and Coupe de France titles with relative ease, the late November loss to Bayern marked the moment PSG took things to another level. Between November 30th and March 1st, PSG went undefeated in all competitions across twenty-two matches. That included a knockout-round clobbering of Brest, after finishing in 15th during the UCL league phase.
PSG’s path to the final literally went though England. They overcame league phase-winners Liverpool on PKs, held off Aston Villa 5-4 on aggregate, and overwhelmed Arsenal with two convincing semifinal victories.
In the Champions League alone, PSG’s average xG sits at 2.13/g (34 goals in 16 games) while registering an xGA of just 1.10/g. They captured their record thirteenth Ligue 1 title way back in April with six matches remaining and have lost just seven times in all competitions this season. That includes two domestic losses to Nice and Strarsbourg after the French title was already secured.
This is just a long-winded way of saying Paris Saint-Germain have been humming along for a long time and are full value to complete a treble on Saturday.
Inter Milan’s Road to the UCL Final
Inter Milan’s 2024-25 is unexpectedly similar to PSG’s, where the Nerazzurri have lost just eight times all year in all competitions. However, it’s the timeliness of those losses that have cast doubt on a potential, all-or-nothing UCL triumph.
Unlike PSG’s introduction to the new UCL format, Inter hit the ground running, chasing a convincing away draw at Man City with consecutive wins against Red Star Belgrade, Young Boys, Arsenal, and RB Leipzig. Their only blemish came in the form of a 1-0 away loss to Bayer Leverkusen, before wins against Sparta Prague and Monaco saw Inter finish fourth in the UCL league. Less than a month later, they were sitting atop the Serie A table while convincingly navigating their way through two cups.
Suddenly, Inter fell victim to the late-season boogeyman most teams dread: match congestion. Three consecutive losses to Bologna, Milan, and Roma over the span of seven days saw Inter lose (and ultimately never regain) first place to Napoli in Serie A and get knocked out of the domestic cup.
And yet, Inter continued to fight their way through the Champions League. Case in point: their wild 7-6 aggregate win over Barcelona, where in Leg 2 Inter went up 2-0, down 3-2, and finally bagging an injury time equalizer from centerback Francesco Acerbi and an AET winner from Davide Frattesi.
For those wondering, the Italian phrase for rollercoaster is “montagne russe.”
Compared to PSG, Inter Milan’s Champions League xG/xGA numbers are considerably more break-even, averaging at 1.71 and 1.22, respectively. Nevertheless, don’t let the late-season match congestion fool you: with one trophy still left on the table, there’s still lost of fight left in this Italian side.
Projected PSG vs Inter Milan Lineups
Gongi into the final, PSG’s lineup dilemmas are largely born out of choice rather than necessity.
On the attack, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia will likely return to the left wing from the respite granted him in the Coupe de France final. This means that coach Luis Enrique will have to choose between Bradley Barcola or Désiré Doué to start on the opposite wing. Since Barcola went the full ninety in the cup final win, I’m guessing Doué will start Saturday.
Presnel Kimpembe is also available on the backline, but will likely be limited to a supporting role.
For Inter, squad availability is more complicated. Yann Aurel Bisseck will likely be back after picking up an injury against Como last week, but his availability is far certain. The same can be said for Benjamin Pavard and Piotr Zielinski, both of whom have been unavailable since May 18th.
PSG vs Inter Milan Predictions & Best Bets
- PSG to Lift the Trophy (-163)
- Both Teams to Score – Yes (-125)
- Ousmana Dembélé 4+ Shots (-138)
I may be hedging by taking PSG to “lift the trophy” rather than have them win outright in regulation, but cup finals often feel cagey and reserved as opponents circle one another and suss each other out. In theory, that should be the case with PSG and Inter, given that they’ve never faced each other before (no, exhibitions don’t count).
But I’m leaning towards PSG, not just because they’ve been consistent all season, but because they’ve really ramped up their performances en route to the final. The only thing I call into question is their sample of opponents: knocking out three English teams, as difficult as that might have been, may not have prepped them for a typical Italian defensive front.
That said, Inter won’t go gently into the night. In spite of my note on cup final cageyness, Inter scored in every one of their knockout round matches, while PSG failed to only score once. I’m envisioning a scoreline of at least 1-1 before regulation ends, hence my BTTS pick.
Finally, I’m looking for PSG striker Ousmane Dembélé to register at least four shots. He’s lead the PSG line all season, notching 185 shots across 48 games this season. Though that makes for an average of 3.85 S/G, per FBREF he’s in the 99th percentile in both shot-creating actions and progressive passes received. All he wants to do is put the ball on net.
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