- UFC 317 takes place Saturday, June 28th, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
- Betting lines have shifted since opening with notable movement in several key fights
- Check out the latest UFC 317 odds movement and our final predictions below
As the UFC 317 main card nears, the betting market has revealed some interesting trends. Since our early predictions dropped, we’ve seen the Dariush-Moicano line completely flip, while Joshua Van has emerged as a slight favorite over Brandon Royval in their flyweight showdown.
The main event between Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira has held relatively steady, though Topuria’s price has come down slightly from astronomical levels. Meanwhile, sharp money has quietly backed Beneil Dariush, moving him from underdog to favorite.
Here are our updated UFC 317 predictions after assessing the latest odds and line movement.
Final UFC 317 Predictions
With fight night here and the lines settling, here are my top plays for the UFC 317 pay-per-view.
Best Bet: Beneil Dariush ML (-118 at DraftKings)
Remember when I said Dariush was a buy-low spot at +102? Well, the market agreed. He’s now the favorite after opening as high as +118, and I’m still on board.
Back in action
— UFC (@ufc) June 27, 2025@beneildariush weighs-in at 156lbs!
[ #UFC317 | TOMORROW on @ESPNPlus PPV | 10pmET ] pic.twitter.com/OPfyBLCAmr
The line movement tells you everything. Sharp money recognized that Moicano isn’t the devastating striker who can replicate what Tsarukyan and Oliveira did to Dariush. This is a grappling match where Dariush’s elite scrambling gives him clear advantages.
Moicano’s recent loss to Islam Makhachev shouldn’t overshadow his impressive run, but Dariush has the tools to neutralize Moicano’s strengths. Look for Dariush to weather the early storm and take over in the middle rounds.
Best Bet: Felipe Lima via Decision (+132 at DraftKings)
We liked Lima from the start, and while his moneyline has tightened from -205 to -162, the real value lies in the method of victory. Lima via decision at +132 is the smart play here.
Lima isn’t exactly a finisher. He went to decision with Miles Johns and needed until the third round to submit Naimov. But that’s why the +132 decision price offers value against a durable fighter like Talbott who’s never been stopped.
Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima kicks off the main card!
— UFC on TNT Sports (@ufcontnt) June 28, 2025
The public clearly likes Talbott here. They see his elite striking, assume he’s fixed the takedown defense after six months of work, and love the plus money. But what truly matters is the fact Lima landed two takedowns on Miles Johns, who has significantly better defensive wrestling than Talbott.
Barcelos exposed Talbott’s wrestling in devastating fashion. Lima doesn’t need to replicate that domination. A couple takedowns per round and some cage control gets him the win. The casual money is betting on potential improvements. We’re betting on the proven pattern of wrestlers beating strikers who struggle with takedowns.
Other UFC 317 Main Card Final Predictions & Best Bets:
- Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO (-110) remains the play; Oliveira’s chin won’t hold up against that power
- Alexandre Pantoja (-238) to grind out another title defense with his relentless wrestling
- Joshua Van (-135) has seen his line move from -120 to heavier favorite status, validating our pick
- Gregory Rodrigues vs Jack Hermansson Under 2.5 rounds (+114) in what should be violent
Van’s line movement is particularly satisfying. We called him at -120, and despite the quick turnaround concerns, the market has pushed him to -135. His 8.2 significant strikes per minute and proven durability make him the right side against Royval.
This week, Joshua Van fights for the 6th time in 365 days
— MMA On Point (@OnPointMMA) June 23, 2025pic.twitter.com/EAiMdy9K9g
For Rodrigues-Hermansson, somebody’s getting finished. Rodrigues has massive power and Hermansson has been chinny lately. The under 2.5 rounds at plus money offers great value for what should be a violent affair.
Updated UFC 317 Odds
The most dramatic movement comes in the Dariush-Moicano fight, where a complete line flip has occurred. Smart money recognized Dariush’s value early, and the books have adjusted accordingly.
Meanwhile, the main event has only seen minor adjustments, with Topuria dropping from -455 to -425. Some brave souls are taking shots on Oliveira at 3-to-1 odds, but not enough to move the needle significantly.
Odds as of June 28th, 2025 at DraftKings. Lock in your UFC 317 bets with a DraftKings promo code.
The prelims have also seen interesting shifts. Terrance McKinney has shortened from -180 to -170 against Viacheslav Borshchev, as bettors remember McKinney’s boom-or-bust nature. Tracy Cortez remains a solid favorite at -250 over Viviane Araujo, with that line holding steady throughout the week.
Perhaps most notably, several heavy favorites have seen their lines come back to earth. Jacobe Smith dropped from -2100 to around -1600 against Niko Price, though he remains the biggest favorite on the card.
Enjoy the fights and bet responsibly! For more UFC 317 action, check out the best UFC betting apps and latest fighter props.
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