- Cincinnati sends ace-in-the-making Andrew Abbott (8-1, 2.09 ERA) to the mound against Atlanta veteran Carlos Carrasco (2-2, 5.91 ERA)
- The Reds have won five of their last sven, while the injury-plagued Braves have dropped eight of their last ten
- See the Braves vs Reds odds, player props, and betting picks and predictions on Thursday night
The surging Cincinnati Reds (57-52, 32-24 home, O/U) host the slumping Atlanta Braves (45-62, 19-36 away, O/U) on Thursday night at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 pm ET.
With burgeoning ace Andrew Abbott (8-1, 2.09 ERA) on the mound, the Reds are sizable home favorites over veteran Carlos Carrasco (2-2, 5.91 ERA) and an Atlanta lineup that’s still missing Ronald Acuña Jr. Below, find the ATL vs CIN odds, plus the main player props and my favorite Braves vs Reds picks tonight.
Jump to: ATL vs CIN Odds | ATL vs CIN Props | Pitcher-vs-Batter History | ATL vs CIN Picks
Braves vs Reds Odds
Thursday’s MLB odds show the Reds as heavy -175 home favorites and the Braves as +145 road underdogs. The vig-free implied probabilities give Cincinnati a 60.9% chance and Atlanta just 39.1%. The Reds are +110 to win by multiple runs with the Braves -134 to at least keep the score within a run. The total is sitting at 9.5 with the under slightly favored at -115.
ATL vs CIN Odds Movement
The betting market has moved decisively in favor of the Reds since lines opened. Cincinnati’s moneyline opened at -161 and has been bet up to -175, a 14-cent shift that underscores the public and sharp sentiment backing the home team. This movement is a direct reflection of the pitching mismatch, the Reds’ strong recent form, and the Braves’ offensive and injury woes.
The Reds’ runline has also shortened from +130 to the current +110 price, indicating that significant money has come in on Cincinnati to win by two or more runs.
The total has only seen slight movement, with the over shifting from an opening line of +100 to -105, likely influenced by Carrasco’s struggles and the game being played at Great American Ball Park.
Braves vs Reds: Relevant Injuries
The Reds are still without a trio of relievers, but the biggest absence is undoubtedly Acuna Jr from the Braves lineup. Acuna landed on the 10-day IL on Tuesday due to a calf strain. The Braves were shutout 1-0 (in 10 innings) by the Royals yesterday sans Acuna, mustering only five hits and wasting 6.2 shutout innings from starter Joey Wentz, who allowed just one hit and three walks.
ATL vs CIN: Starting Pitcher-vs-Batter History
Braves Hitters vs Andrew Abbott
Andrew Abbott has had limited exposure to this Braves lineup but has handled them effectively. Notably, he has dominated two of Atlanta’s top hitters, Austin Riley and Michael Harris II, striking them out in all four of their combined at-bats.
Reds Hitters vs Carlos Carrasco
The Reds hitters only have 14 career at-bats against Carrasco, but they have been an absurdly productive 14 at-bats. Altogether, the four Cincinnati hitters who have faced him have combined for a .419 average and 1.181 OPS. Jake Fraley has the lone home run. Connor Joe is 3-for-8 with a double. Carrasco has been vulnerable to the long ball this season, a perilous trait in a hitter’s haven like Great American Ball Park.
Braves vs Reds Player Props
MLB props represent a consensus across sportsbooks on July 31, 2025.
There is significant value in the player prop market for this game. For the Reds, Elly De La Cruz’s total bases prop at 1.5 (over -110) is highly appealing against Carrasco, who has struggled mightily all season. De La Cruz’s combination of power and speed gives him multiple paths to eclipsing this number.
For the pitchers, Abbott’s strikeout line is set at a modest 4.5. Given that the Braves lineup has struggled against left-handed pitching and is missing its best hitter, the over (-154) is a strong consideration, even with the juice. Abbott has also been excellent at limiting damage, making the under on his 2.5 earned-runs prop (-147) a solid bet.
Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Picks & Prediction
All signs point to a decisive victory for Cincinnati in this contest. The primary factor is the monumental gap on the pitcher’s mound. The Reds’ patient yet aggressive offensive approach should allow them to work deep counts and capitalize on any mistakes from the struggling veteran Carrasco.
Abbott has been nothing short of brilliant, pitching to a 2.09 ERA and consistently shutting down opposing lineups. He now faces an Atlanta Braves offense that is a shell of its former self without Ronald Acuña Jr and is mired in a deep slump. Conversely, Carlos Carrasco has been a liability for the Braves, sporting a 5.91 ERA and a tendency to give up the long ball – a dangerous flaw at Great American Ball Park. The runline offers plus-money value on the Reds at -1.5 (+110).
The situational trends provide overwhelming support for Cincinnati, as well. The Reds have won their last five games at home as a favorite and are 7-3 in their last ten games in that role. The Braves, on the other hand, have been abysmal as an underdog, losing nine of their last ten and posting a dreadful 4-19 record in that spot for the season. While Atlanta has historically had success against Cincinnati (5-1 in the last six meetings), that trend holds little weight given the current state of both rosters.
The Reds’ offense is firing on all cylinders, and their bullpen has been solid. The Braves’ bats are silent, and their bullpen is shaky. Back the hot team at home with the ace on the hill. The moneyline is the safe play, but the +110 value on the run line is too good to pass up. Despite the hitter’s park, strong trends suggest the Under is in play, mainly due to the Braves’ inability to score and Abbott’s dominance.
Picks:
- Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (-175)
- Under 9.5 (-115)
- De La Cruz over 1.5 total bases (-110)
- Abbott over 4.5 Ks (-154) and under 2.5 earned runs (-147)
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The sports and sports betting data in this article was gathered with the assistance of AI that is connected to Sportradar’s database.
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