- NASCAR Cup Series heads to Sonoma Raceway for the Toyota/Save Mart 350
- Shane van Gisbergen took pole, but there are better value opportunities elsewhere
- Below, see my NASCAR Toyota/Save Mart 350 predictions, expert picks & betting odds for Sonoma
NASCAR rolls into wine country this Sunday, July 13th, for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. The green flag waves at 3:30 pm ET on TNT.
Sonoma’s 1.99-mile layout features 12 turns through Northern California’s rolling hills. The fresh repave completely changed this track’s character, transforming it from a tire-eater to a speed contest. Shane van Gisbergen captured another pole, but his short odds have pushed the smart money toward other contenders.
Let’s analyze the Toyota Save Mart 350 odds and provide our best Sonoma predictions.
2025 Toyota Save Mart 350 Odds
Odds as of July 12, at top racing sports betting apps. Register with the BetMGM bonus code to wager on the 2025 Toyota Save Mart 350.
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Toyota Save Mart 350 Predictions
California sunshine should greet the field Sunday with perfect racing conditions on tap. SVG’s heavy favoritism has opened doors for sharp bettors to find edges elsewhere.
Van Gisbergen crushed Chicago and snagged another pole Saturday. But consider this: he’s never wheeled a Cup car around Sonoma while veterans like Larson, Elliott, and Buescher know every bump and brake marker. The repaving shook things up, changing a technical battle into a race focused on speed and horsepower.
Sportsbooks have loaded up the prop menu for Sunday. I’ve spotted multiple plays offering serious bang for your buck based on speed charts, track history, and starting spots.
NASCAR Sonoma Expert Picks
Tyler Reddick at +1400 is my best NASCAR Sonoma value bet heading into Sunday’s shootout. Chicago proved his speed when fresher rubber nearly carried him past SVG in the closing laps. Two more circuits would’ve sealed it according to every analyst watching. That’s elite pace right there.
Chi-town
— Tyler Reddick (@TylerReddick) July 4, 2025pic.twitter.com/dzOFPxrQQx
Reddick’s been second only to SVG in green flag speed on road courses this season. At COTA, he clocked in at 85.18 mph—just behind SVG’s 85.27. Chicago told the same story. No one else is consistently running in that league with van Gisbergen.
Since 2022, Reddick ranks fourth in average finish (10.8) and second in driver rating (101.9). He’s qualified P2 twice at Sonoma, while SVG is making his Cup debut here. Starting eighth gives Reddick pit strategy options that could change the race.
- 2025 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Prediction to Win: Tyler Reddick (+1400 at BetMGM)
NASCAR Sonoma Top 10-Finish Odds
NASCAR place odds as of July 13, at Bet365 Sportsbook. Get access to these props with the Bet365 bonus code.
Allmendinger is Consistent Top 10 Bet
AJ Allmendinger at -188 for a top-10 feels like straight-up profit potential. He finished sixth in Chicago and has racked up 11 top-10s on road courses since the NextGen era began. Only three drivers have done better. Oh, and he’s gone sixth back-to-back at Sonoma, too.
He’s rolling off fifth after a solid qualifying session, which seriously boosts his shot. Kaulig Racing is in win-or-bust mode for the playoffs, so expect aggressive strategy calls all race long. Getting longer than -200 for a top-10? That’s a steal.
And don’t overlook Zane Smith at +600. He drove to 14th in Chicago and snagged a fifth at Watkins Glen last year. His Truck Series road course chops are legit, and starting 12th puts him ahead of some heavy hitters. At 6-to-1, he’s absolutely worth a flyer.
- 2025 Toyota Save Mart 350 Top 10 Prediction: AJ Allmendinger (-188 at Bet365)
SPORTSBOOK
Toyota/Save Mart 350 Top 5 Odds
McDowell Has Speed that Kills
Michael McDowell is +275 to make the top five. I’m in. Before mechanical problems hit, McDowell was in charge of Stage 1 in Chicago. That wasn’t just a fluke; that was some serious speed to get ahead.
He came in second in 2023 and fourth last year at Sonoma, which backs it up. At this track, McDowell has the fastest average speed of all the drivers in NextGen. Front Row Motorsports really needs to win, so they will take risks with their strategy when other teams play it safe.
Chase Elliott at +200 is also worth looking at. In his last six Sonoma races, he has had four top-five finishes, the most recent being a heartbreaking second place in 2021. Hendrick can swing for the fences strategically because they are already in the playoffs.
- NASCAR Sonoma Top 5 Pick: Michael McDowell (+265 at Bet365)
SPORTSBOOK
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