Yankees vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Starting Pitchers for Saturday (July 5)

The New York Yankees visit the New York Mets on Saturday afternoon at Citi Field on July 5
The Yankees are road favorites despite riding a five-game losing streak
See the Yankees vs Mets prediction, odds, and starting pitchers for Saturday’s Subway Series showdown

After dropping Friday’s series opener 6-5, the New York Yankees (48-40, 22-23 away, 3-7 L10) look to snap their five-game skid when they face the New York Mets (51-38, 32-13 home, 5-5 L10) at Citi Field on Saturday, July 5th.

First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 pm ET, and the Yankees are road favorites in the Yankees vs Mets odds. Let’s dive into our MLB prediction for Saturday’s heavyweight clash.

Yankees vs Mets Prediction for Saturday

Yankees Moneyline (-140 at Caesars)

The Yankees desperately need a win here. They’ve dropped five straight games and seven of their last 10, falling to second place in the AL East. But there’s reason for optimism with Carlos Rodon on the mound.

Rodon has been quietly brilliant this season. The lefty carries a 2.95 ERA and 1.00 WHIP into Saturday’s start, with underlying metrics that support his success. His 2.89 xERA and .200 xBA rank among baseball’s best.

History is on Rodon’s side too. He’s dominated the Mets throughout his career, going 3-0 with a microscopic 1.15 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in three starts against them. That track record should give Yankees fans confidence.

NYY vs NYM Starting Pitchers

Rodon	Stat	Montas
9-5	W-L	0-1
2.95	ERA	6.00
106.2	IP	9.0
1.00	WHIP	1.56
10.4	K/9	10.0

Frankie Montas takes the hill for the Mets in just his third start of the season. It’s been a tale of two outings for the veteran righty. He dazzled at home against Atlanta with five shutout innings, then got rocked in Pittsburgh, surrendering six runs in four frames.

That home/road split isn’t new for Montas. Throughout his career, he owns a 3.62 home ERA compared to a 4.65 mark on the road. He’ll need that home cooking against a Yankees lineup that ranks fourth in MLB in runs per game.

The Yankees’ offense has stayed hot despite the losing streak. They’ve scored at least four runs in six straight games, with Aaron Judge leading the charge. Judge is batting .365 this season (best in baseball) and went 2-for-4 with a homer in Friday’s loss.

ALL RISE.

Aaron Judge hits one a MILE and the @Yankees are off and running in Queens! pic.twitter.com/RYOi8g84lQ
— MLB (@MLB) July 4, 2025

Meanwhile, Cody Bellinger brings a scorching 10-game hitting streak into Saturday’s contest. He’s recorded a hit in 14 of his last 15 games and should find success against Montas, who’s still finding his footing after an early-season IL stint.

The pitching matchup heavily favors New York. Rodon ranks in the 91st percentile in whiff rate and 87th percentile in strikeout rate. He’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last four starts. Montas, conversely, has been up and down throughout his career and remains a question mark.

Don’t let the Yankees’ recent struggles fool you. They still boast one of baseball’s most potent lineups and have the clear edge on the mound. They are favored in this spot for a reason, and at -140, there’s value in backing them to end this skid finally.

New York Yankees vs New York Mets Odds July 5

Bet Type	NYY	NYM
Moneyline	-140	+118
Runline	-1.5 (+115)	+1.5 (-135)
Total	O 9.0 (-110)	U 9.0 (-110)

The Yankees come in as -140 favorites at Caesars, implying about a 58% win probability. The Mets return at +118, offering decent value for home underdog backers.

The run total sits at 9.0 with standard -110 juice on both sides. That’s right in line with recent scoring trends, as the Yankees have gone over in six straight games.

Odds as of July 5 at Caesars Sportsbook. Check out SBD’s list of the best MLB betting sites.

The Mets took Friday’s opener 6-5 behind a strong offensive showing from Juan Soto (3 hits, 2 RBI) and timely hitting throughout the lineup. Jeff McNeil’s seventh-inning homer proved to be the difference.

Saturday’s MLB public betting splits show overwhelming support for the Yankees. They’re drawing 85% of spread bets and 76% of moneyline wagers, while 91% of total bets are on the over.

Yankees and Mets Stats & Standings

Team	Record	Last 10	Division
Yankees	48-40	3-7	2nd AL East (-2.0)
Mets	51-38	5-5	2nd NL East (-0.5)

Both teams find themselves in tight division races. The Yankees trail Toronto by two games in the AL East, while the Mets sit just half a game behind Philadelphia in the NL East.

The venue could play a factor, as the Mets own baseball’s best home record at 32-13. The Yankees have struggled on the road lately, dropping 10 of their last 11 away from the Bronx. But with the superior pitching matchup and desperate need for a win, they’re the right side Saturday.

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK
USE CODE SBD1500 & GET $1,500 BACK IN BONUS BETS

CLAIM OFFER
BET365 SPORTSBOOK
BET $5 & GET $150 IN BONUS BETS WITH CODE DIME365

CLAIM OFFER
FANATICS SPORTSBOOK
BET & GET UP TO $1,000 IN BONUS BETS!

CLAIM OFFER
DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK
BET $5 & GET $150 IN BONUS BETS INSTANTLY!

CLAIM OFFER
FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK
BET $5 & GET $150 IF YOUR BET WINS

CLAIM OFFER
CAESARS SPORTSBOOK
USE CODE SBD2DYW & BET $1 TO DOUBLE THE WINNINGS ON YOUR FIRST 10 BETS!

CLAIM OFFER
Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, IL, KS, KY, MD, MI, NC, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, WY); (800) 327-5050 or gamblinghelplinema.org (MA); (877) 8-HOPENY (NY); 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ); (888) 789-7777 (CT); 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA); 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN); mdgamblinghelp.org (MD); morethanagame.nc.gov (NC); 1800gambler.net (WV)