US Open Picks & Predictions for Day 1 (Aug. 24)

The 2025 US Open starts on Sunday, Aug. 24, with dozens of men’s and women’s singles matches
American Taylor Fritz takes on young compatriot Emilio Nava in the first round
See my favorite US Open picks, predictions, and best bets today

The 2025 US Open gets off to a roaring start on Sunday, August 24th, with huge slate of singles matches in both the men’s and women’s draws. Sunday’s schedule is highlighted by an all-American matchup between #5 Taylor Fritz and Emilio Nava in the afternoon, followed by #7 Novak Djokovic facing rising 19-year-old American Lerner Tien in the evening.

Below, I have set out my three favorite US Open picks and predictions for day one, along with the sportsbook currently offering the best price.

US Open Picks & Predictions Today (Aug. 24)

Matchup	Pick	Book
Mannarino vs Griekspoor	Mannarino ML (+138)	Caesars
Nava vs Fritz	Over 33.5 Games (-140)	BetMGM
Tien vs Djokovic	Tien to Win 1st Set (+250)	bet365

My three best bets today are all on the men’s side. I’m targeting one underdog to win straight-up, one underdog to win the first set, and one total-games over.

Odds as of 10:45 am ET, Aug. 24. Use SBD’s guides to find the best betting app for the US Open.

US Open Pick #1: Mannarino to Win vs Griekspoor

Tallon Griekspoor, the #29 seed, gets a tough first-round draw against 37-year-old Frenchman Adrian Mannarino. Mannarino has had a strong start to the hard-court season, going 7-2 in his last nine matches including wins over world #14 Tommy Paul and #22 Tomas Machac, both in Cincinnati. He also gave world #1 Jannik Sinner a stiff test in the Cincinnati quarters, falling 6-4, 7-6⁴.

Griekspoor, meanwhile, is 0-3 since hardcourt season started and has lost four straight matches, overall. His last victory was against world #142 Andrea Pellegrino, and he needed three sets to do it.

Mannarino has a game tailored to hardcourts and has reached at least the second round at the US Open in four of the last five years (twice advancing to the third round in that span). He’s 14-14 lifetime in Flushing. Griekspoor is just 3-4 at the US Open in his career.

Take the hotter, more experienced player at significant plus-money.

US Open Pick #2: Nava vs Fritz Over 33.5 Games

Emilio Nava doesn’t really have the power to hang with Taylor Fritz on the medium-fast hardcourts at the US Open. They’ve met twice previously, both on hardcourts, and both times Fritz won in straight sets (6-4, 6-1 back in 2023, and 6-4, 6-4 two weeks ago in Cincinnati).

The 23-year-old Nava is still improving, though, and he certainly wasn’t overwhelmed by Fritz when they met on August 9th. Fritz only generated three break points (converting two) while Nava failed to convert on either of the break-point chances he created.

Both served at a very high level, something apt to repeat on Sunday afternoon. Nava hit 64% of his first serves and won 78% of his first-serve points. Fritz hit just 60% of his first serves, but won 81% of his first-serve points.

I expect break chances to be few and far between again. If Nava can at least get to five games in a couple sets, then over 33.5 is a near certainty.

US Open Pick #3: Tien to Win First Set vs Djokovic

American teenager Lerner Tien has upped his ranking from #122 to #48 over the course of the 2025 season, going 17-9 overall on hardcourts in that span. He already owns hardcourt victories over #3 Alex Zverev, #13 Daniil Medvedev, #15 Andrey Rublev, and a host of other top-50 players.

No one is disputing Djokovic’s status as the all-time GOAT. But he hasn’t played since losing to Jannik Sinner in the Wimbledon semis in early July. In other words, he hasn’t played a match on hardcourts since the 2025 Aussie Open back in January.

Bound to have a little rust to shake off, Djokovic isn’t immune from slow starts at the best of times. He’s lost the first set in each of his last three matches and four of his last eight. Upsetting Djokovic outright might be too big a mental hurdle for someone as young as Tien. But I love the value on Tien winning the first set at +250 odds.

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