- The Tigers are -169 moneyline favorites in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card round versus the Guardians
- Tarik Skubal (13-6, 2.21 ERA) will toe the rubber for Detroit, while Cleveland will counter with Gavin Williams (12-5, 3.06 ERA)
- Keep reading for the Tigers vs Guardians picks, odds and starting pitchers for Game 1
Playoff baseball gets underway on Tuesday with the Tigers and Guardians drawing opening game honors. Cleveland is this year’s Cinderella, entering the postseason as the hottest team in MLB. Despite their incredible September, Online sportsbooks are siding against them in Game 1 of the ALWC per the latest MLB odds.
First pitch is scheduled for 1:08 pm ET from Progressive Field, in Cleveland, OH, with Sunshine and 73 degree game time temperatures on deck.
Tigers vs Guardians Odds
Detroit is currently a -169 moneyline favorite, and is laying 1.5 on the run line at +118 odds. Cleveland comes back as a +138 underdog, while the total sits at 6, the lowest on Tuesday’s four-game slate.
SPORTSBOOK
Odds as of September 29th at bet365. Claim the bet365 bonus code to bet on the MLB playoffs today.
Tigers vs Guardians Picks
- Tigers Moneyline (-169 at Bet365)
I’m taking Detroit on the moneyline in my Tigers vs Guardians picks, as I believe the clock is about to strike midnight on Cleveland’s improbable run. The Guardians were an MLB best 19-7 in September, erasing a once insurmountable deficit in the AL Central. Cleveland was 15.5 games back of the Tigers in July, and traded away ace Shane Bieber at the deadline.
Since then, they’ve been on fire, but all good things must come to an end. No AL team has longer World Series odds than the Guardians, while Cleveland owns the longest active championship drought dating back to 1948.
The Guardians are the only playoff team with a negative run differential (-6), and they finished the regular season with 7 wins above expectation. Only two of their everyday players have an OPS+ above league average (Jose Ramirez and Kyle Manzardo), while Ramirez boasts just a .239 career average in the postseason over 42 games.
Cleveland Guardians Batting Stats
Cleveland is built on pitching, however few hurlers have significant playoff experience. Take Game 1 starter Gavin Williams for example, who has just one career postseason start, and spoiler alert it did not go well.
Detroit on the other hand, is the laughing stock of the playoffs coming in, but let’s not forget all they accomplished prior to their collapse. This was the best team in the AL entering the months of May, June, July, August and September, and have a significantly better weighted on base average than the Guardians. Yes, they went 7-16 in the final month of the season, but were 21-11 in one score games in 2025, and are armed with the best pitcher in baseball.
DET Tigers vs CLE Guardians Starting Pitchers
That of course is Tarik Skubal, who’s the runaway favorite in the AL Cy Young odds. The left-hander recorded a 2.21 ERA and MLB-best 0.89 WHIP this season, finishing second in strikeouts with 241. He fanned 17 Guardians in two September starts against them over 12 innings, and allowed only two earned runs over 28 innings versus Cleveland this season.
Skubal’s dominance has carried over to his three career playoff starts, as he’s posted a 2.37 ERA and 0.79 ERA, with a 20-to-2 strikeout-to-walk rate.
Tarik Skubal vs Gavin Williams 2025 Stats
Williams on the other hand, closed the regular season on a tear, much like the majority of the Guardians pitchers. The righty posted a 1.88 ERA over four September starts, and has yielded two runs or less in five straight outings. That run includes back-to-back starts against the Tigers over the last two weeks, in which he allowed only two runs over 11 innings, while striking out 19.
As mentioned, he’s short on playoff experience, with his lone start ending in disaster. He lasted just 2.1 innings in his postseason debut last year, surrendering three runs.
With both teams trotting out quality starters, you can could make a serious argument for the under in this matchup. However, Cleveland’s magic could run out at any point, and I just can’t back a team that ranked 29th in OPS against the best pitcher in baseball.
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