Iowa vs Iowa State Preview, Odds & Early Prediction for Big Noon Kickoff

A rivalry is renewed as Iowa heads to Ames to face Iowa State
Iowa State is riding high off a quick 2-0 start
Read below for my Iowa vs Iowa State prediction and the betting odds

FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff heads to Ames, Iowa, for a game between Iowa and Iowa State. Iowa (1-0) and No.22 Iowa State (2-0) will battle for the Cy-Hawk trophy for the 72nd time. Iowa State plays host at noon ET on Saturday, September 6th, on a FOX broadcast.

I’ve made my Iowa vs Iowa State prediction for Saturday and set out the betting odds as kickoff looms.

Iowa vs Iowa State Prediction & Pick

Under 41.5 (-110, Caesars)

As is tradition in Iowa-Iowa State, the total is among the lowest of the week. Even with the low total, the under is juicy. The Hawkeyes are coming off a season in which they ranked 72nd in the nation in scoring (27.7 points per game) and 11th in scoring defense (17.8 points per game). The Cyclones fared slightly better – just outside the top 40 in both scoring and scoring defense. However, last year’s matchup should be a reasonable guide as only 39 points were scored in a 20-19 win for Iowa State.

The top weapons for both schools have moved on to the NFL. Iowa’s star running back Kaleb Johnson led the Big Ten in rushing yards (1,537) and rushing touchdowns (21) en route to an All-American nod. Both of Iowa State’s 1,000-yard receivers were drafted in Jaylin Noel (1,194 yards) and Jayden Higgins (1,183). Iowa is also integrating a new quarterback in Mark Gronowski.

Jayden Higgins… The Texans really drafted a second Nico Collins pic.twitter.com/lraIoqiE8u
— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) August 16, 2025

On the other hand, both defenses are largely intact. Iowa only lost interior player Yahya Black to the draft, while Iowa State lost cornerback Darien Porter. Iowa’s 2025 defense looked strong in a dominant 34-7 win over Albany in Week 1. Iowa State has allowed 28 points through two games, including 21 points allowed to a ranked Kansas State team in Week 0. Expect Iowa-Iowa State to be a defensive slog with field position being the name of the game.

Iowa State’s Rocco Becht is making his third start versus Iowa. He has thrown an interception in both meetings, but he did manage to throw for 272 yards and two touchdowns in last year’s matchup.

Fewer than 40 points have been scored in five of the last six matchups between Iowa and Iowa State. Iowa State has not scored more than 20 points in any matchup since 2017, while Iowa has surpassed 20 just once since 2017. With this in mind, take the under 41.5 at Caesars at -110.

Iowa vs Iowa State Betting Odds

Betting Market	Iowa	Iowa State
Spread	+3 (-105, DraftKings)	-2.5 (-120, FanDuel)
Moneyline	+130 (BetMGM)	-144 (FanDuel)
Total	o41.5 (-105, FanDuel)	u41.5 (-110, Caesars)

The oddsmakers have Iowa State as home favorites with the total at 41.5. Over bettors should take FanDuel’s -105 bet on over 41.5. Under bettors should take the Caesars line at -110 for under 41.5.

If you wish to back Iowa State, you can get them -2.5 on the spread at -120 on FanDuel or -144 on the moneyline, also at FanDuel. If you are betting on Iowa, take them at +3 at DraftKings (-105) or on the moneyline as +130 underdogs at BetMGM.

Odds as of September 2, 2025, at the top college football betting apps.

IU vs ISU Last Five Matchups

Date	Score	Location
9/7/24	Iowa State 20, Iowa 19	Iowa City, IA
9/9/23	Iowa 20, Iowa State 13	Ames, IA
9/10/22	Iowa State 10, Iowa 7	Iowa City, IA
9/11/21	Iowa 27, Iowa State 17	Ames, IA
9/14/19	Iowa 18, Iowa State 17	Ames, IA

Outside of the 2020 COVID season, Iowa and Iowa State have played every year since 1977. Iowa holds a 47-24 advantage across the 71 lifetime meetings, and they have been the dominant force in the series since 2015. They have won seven of the last nine matchups, and they have won every game played in Ames since 2011.

Iowa State has not won back-to-back Cy-Hawk trophies since 2011 and 2012.

Last season, Iowa State pulled out a comeback victory with a last-second field goal from Kyle Konrardy.

This is Kyle Konrardy’s second career game at Iowa State.

Konrardy attempted the first 3 FGs of his college career today.

Including this 54-yd FG to win the Cy-Hawk Game.

A memory forever for the freshman from Dubuque. pic.twitter.com/YAA1GRGPDR

— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) September 7, 2024

All three touchdown scorers are now in the NFL. Kaleb Johnson, now a Steeler, scored two touchdowns for the Hawkeyes. Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, both now Texans, each scored a touchdown for the Cyclones.

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