- The Dolphins are 2.5-point favorites over the Jets in the first of two games on Monday night
- Justin Fields (concussion) will start after sitting out Week 3
- See the Jets vs Dolphins betting lines, plus my pick and prediction for MNF
AFC East rivals clash on Monday Night Football as the Jets (0-3) visit the Dolphins (0-3) in the first of two games on the NFL’s signature night. This matchup is essentially a loser leaves town match in the AFC playoff picture, as it’s nearly impossible to crack the postseason after starting 0-4.
Miami enters the game as short home favorites in the latest Monday Night Football odds, but I’m looking past the spread market and zeroing in on the under in my Jets vs Dolphins pick.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7:15pm ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.
NY Jets vs MIA Dolphins Betting Lines
The total currently sits at 45.5, which is a little high given the ineptitude of both these offenses. Miami is favored by 2.5 points and -155 on the moneyline, with New York coming back as +130 underdogs.
According to the NFL public betting percentages, total bettors share the same feelings as me. The under is drawing 72% of the tickets as of Sunday, and 69% of the over/under handle.
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Jets vs Dolphins Injury Reports
From an injury standpoint, the big news is the availability of Justin Fields. He sat out Week 3 after suffering a concussion towards the end of New York’s loss in Week 2, but has been cleared to start versus Miami. Fields was sharp in Week 1 rushing for two touchdowns and throwing for another, but was a disaster versus the Bills the following week.
He completed 3-of-11 passes for 27 yards prior to his injury, leading the Jets to just a single field goal drive prior to his fourth quarter exit. On paper, the matchup against the Dolphins is mouth watering, but their defensive metrics are skewed based on the quality of opposition they’ve faced.
Jets vs Dolphins Pick and Prediction
- Under 45.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
The Fins have matched up against the Super Bowl 60 odds favorite Bills, Colts and Patriots so far. Two of those teams are undefeated, while the trio ranks first, second and 11th in total offense. Not surprisingly, Miami’s defensive numbers are horrendous. They rank last in scoring defense and 29th in yards per play, boasting the worst pass rush grade per PFF, and the second lowest coverage grade.
But the question is, can Fields and Co. take advantage. I’m not so sure. Dating back to 2021, when he entered the league, Fields ranks 46th in expected points added per play. As a starter, his teams have never finished higher than 19th in total offense. Fields has more interceptions and sacks (52) than touchdown passes (46), and has taken an average of 3 sacks per game.
Justin Fields Career Stats
To make matters worse, the Jets running game is stuck in the mud. Lead back Breece Hall is averaging 2.6 yards per carry since Week 1, while New York has been outgained on the ground by 140+ yards over the last two games. As a result, the Jets haven’t been able to sustain drives. They’re 3-for-22 on third downs over the last two weeks, and have just 10 third down conversions all season.
On the other side of the ball, I have zero confidence in Miami’s ability to put up points. Tua Tagovailoa has the third worst QBR so far, and is tied for the league lead in interceptions. His offensive line grades out in the bottom-seven in pass and run blocking, while only four other teams have a lower offensive grade. Dating back to last year, Tagovailoa is averaging 197 passing yards over his last five starts, with as many INT’s (7) as touchdown throws.
Everyone knows the way to frazzle Tua is by generating pressure. Few coaches are as blitz happy as the Jets Aaron Glenn, and New York’s pass rush showed signs of life last week against Tampa Bay. The Jets forced numerous holding penalties and held a very good Bucs offense to only one offensive touchdown.
This game profiles as a slow paced, slog. I think both defenses aren’t as bad as they’ve shown through three weeks, and I don’t expect too much success from either offense. Give me the under.
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