Sinner vs Bublik Odds, Picks & Predictions

Jannik Sinner is a massive -1600 moneyline favorite over Alexander Bublik in Round 4 at the US Open
Sinner has reached the final in all but one of the six tournaments he’s played this year
See the full Sinner vs Bublik odds below, plus my picks and predictions

Raise your hand if you know the last time Jannik Sinner lost at a hard court Grand Slam. The answer: the fourth round of the 2023 US Open. Since then, he’s won the Australian Open twice and the US Open, and online sportsbooks expect him to make quick work of Alexander Bublik in Monday’s fourth round on Arthur Ashe.

Sinner vs Bublik is tentatively scheduled to get underway at 7 pm ET from Flushing Meadows in Queens, New York, with ESPN+ providing the broadcast coverage.

Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Bublik Odds

Bet Type	Sinner	Bublik
Moneyline	-1600	+900
Spread	-6.5 (-138)	+6.5 (+100)
Total Games	32.5 (-120)	32.5 (-120)

Sinner is currently listed as a -1600 moneyline favorite, and is laying 6.5 games on the spread. Bublik comes back as a +900 underdog, while the total games over/under is set at 32.5.

Odds as of August 31. Get in on the action betting the US Open with the bet365 bonus code.

Sinner vs Bublik Pick

Over 32.5 Games (-120)

The World No. 1 enters this match having reached the final in all but one of the six tournaments he’s played in 2025. He sports a stunning 34-4 record overall, with only one of those losses coming to someone other than World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz. It just so happens Bublik is the only other man to beat him.

Granted, that match was on grass, and it was directly after Sinner’s heartbreaking defeat in the Roland Garros final. He rebounded the next time out by winning Wimbledon, and then didn’t drop a set in Cincinnati prior to the final versus Alcaraz when he was forced to retire due to illness.

With his sickness behind him, Sinner breezed through the first and second rounds at the US Open, but hit a speed bump in the third. He dropped the opening set to Canadian Denis Shapovalov, and was a point away from going down 0-4 in the third set. Sinner promptly righted the ship by winning 12 of the next 15 games, booking his spot in round four.

It’s hard to poke holes in Sinner’s game, especially on hard court. He entered the tournament as the favorite in the US Open odds, but he has had a bit of trouble landing his first serve. That could force him to work a harder than usual on Monday, as Bublik is having no such issues.

Sinner vs Bublik Last 5 H2H Results

Tournament	Winner	Score	Surface
2025 Halle Rd of 16	Bublik	3-6, 6-3, 6-4	Grass
2025 Roland Garros QF	Sinner	6-1, 7-5, 6-0	Clay
2023 Halle QF	Bublik	7-5, 2-0 (Ret)	Grass
2023 ‘s-Hertogenbosch Rd of 16	Sinner	6-4, 6-2	Grass
2021 Miami QF	Sinner	7-6, 6-4	Hard

Bublik is fresh off a five-set triumph over Tommy Paul, in which he didn’t drop his serve once. He cruised through the first and second rounds in straight sets, and has had a career resurgence this summer.

He made the quarters at Roland Garros (where he lost to Sinner), a final in Phoenix, and racked up titles in Halle, Gstaad, and Kitzbuhel. Bublik is currently riding an 11-match winning streak, and is one of the few players on Tour with enough firepower to go blow-for-blow with Sinner from the baseline.

Look, I’m not calling for an upset in my Sinner vs Bublik picks, but I do think the Kazakh can make this match surprisingly competitive, and punch back enough to take it over 32.5 games.

Sinner vs Bublik Prediction

Sinner to Win, plus Over 32.5 Games (+105 at Bet365)

As a result, my favorite Sinner vs Bublik prediction is actually Sinner to win, plus over 32.5 Games. That pays +105, which is considerably better than the -120 odds on just the over.

Barring an injury, Sinner is going to advance, but he’s going to have to work his tail off to do so. Bublik is the last man to beat the Italian in a completed match, and has produced 154 winners at the US Open, over twice as many as Sinner (74).

Sinner’s inconsistent first serve is particularly problematic in this matchup, as Bublik is an excellent returner. He’s got a 40% break-point conversion rate this season, which is just three percentage points lower than Sinner’s.

Bublik has also racked 437 aces this year, and a 77% first-serve points won rate, which will break opportunities hard to come by even for a returner as profilic as Sinner.

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