- TCU faces UNC on Monday night in the final contest on the Week 1 slate
- Josh Hoover had more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws last season
- See my favorite TCU vs UNC player props and best prop bets for Monday night CFB
The final game on the Week 1 college football schedule marks one of the most anticipated coaching debuts in college football history. Bill Belichick will lead UNC onto the field for the first time, bringing his son Steve along to run his defense. The younger Belichick turned around the University of Washington pass defense last season, and I’m banking on him and his dad scheming up a plan to slow down TCU quarterback Josh Hoover.
I’m fading Hoover in my TCU vs UNC college football player props, while backing North Carolina QB Gio Lopez, not for his arm but rather for his legs.
TCU vs UNC Player Props
Hoover sports a massive 289.5 passing-yards prop, a number that is simply too high given his style of play and the way Steve Belichick likes to take away the middle of the field. UNC RB Davion Gause boasts the game’s highest rushing-yards prop at 69.5, while Horned Frogs receiver Eric McAlister owns a 76.5-yard receiving over/under, 22 yards higher than anyone else.
SPORTSBOOK
TCU vs UNC Best Prop Bet #1: Josh Hoover Under 289.5 Passing Yards
Hoover set a school record for passing yards last season, but did the bulk of his damage on slants and hitches over the middle. He doesn’t throw outside or deep very often, and had more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws per PFF.
That’s trouble versus a Steve Belichick-style defense. Much like his father, Steve makes offenses play left-handed. He deployed a heavy single-high, man coverage scheme in Washington, turning the Huskies into a top-20 pass defense. It’s expected he’ll do the same with the Tar Heels, incentivizing more rushing plays from TCU.
A ground-heavy approach will limit Hoover’s attempts, and is likely the smart strategy. As good as Steve’s defense was against the pass in 2024, it struggled versus the run. Washington ranked 83rd in rushing defense, and bottom-15 in success rate, which explains why they weren’t a factor in the college football playoff odds.
- Josh Hoover Under 289.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
TCU vs UNC Best Prop Bet #2: Gio Lopez Over 33.5 Rushing Yards
My second favorite TCU vs UNC player prop bet is over 33.5 rushing yards for Lopez. The Sophomore transfer rushed for 465 yards last season, amassing six games with 34+ rushing yards at Southern Alabama. The bulk of those came in one score games, and the Tar Heels are currently catching 3.5 points tonight.
TCU 2024 Run Defense
TCU’s defensive strength lies in its secondary, and they were incredibly vulnerable versus the rush last season. That’s music to new UNC offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens’ ears, who’s been adamant about establishing the run this season.
I predict we see multiple designed runs for Lopez, in addition to the times to he takes off and scrambles. 10+ carries is well within his range of outcomes, and with a 6.1 career yards per carry average, I expect him to soar over his rushing prop.
- Gio Lopez Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at bet365)
TCU vs UNC Best Prop Bet #3: Eric McAlister Under 25.5 Yard Longest Reception
My final TCU vs UNC best prop bet correlates nicely with my first. I’m betting the under on McAlister’s longest reception at 25.5 yards. Yes, McAlister is one of the top wideouts in the Big 12, but I don’t expect him to have the room to bust a big play.
We already established Hoover is allergic to the deep ball, meaning McAlister is going to need to make something happen after the catch. He’s certainly capable of that, but Steve Belichick’s Washington squad was the top overall tackling team last year in the FBS, and I expect this year’s Tar Heels to have a similar identity making big plays tough to come by.
- Eric McAlister Under 25.5 Yard Longest Reception (-110 at bet365)
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