- Memphis meets Rice in a Week 10 Friday College Football clash
- The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
- Check out my Memphis vs Rice prediction, picks and the line for Friday’s battle
Here we go again! There’s nothing like an all-AAC Friday night college football matchup, and this week we’ve got Memphis vs Rice to bless your TV screen. The Tigers (7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS) knocked off USF at home last week, while Rice (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) conjured up a victory over UConn.
Dive into my Memphis vs Rice prediction, with betting picks and all the odds, below.
Memphis vs Rice Prediction
Memphis’ dominant rushing attack will power them to victory on Friday night. The Tigers lead the country in rushing EPA, and early downs EPA per play, leading them to stay ahead of the chains and further, a whole lot of offensive success.
On the flip side, Rice’s offense is one of the worst in the country. The Owls rely on their triple-option attack, and if they fall behind early, this one will get ugly.
Plus, Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games, and 6-1 SU in its last seven against AAC competition. Follow my Memphis vs Rice prediction and back the Tigers to cover the spread.
- Pick: Memphis -13.5 (-120)
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Memphis Betting Trends
Quarterback Brendon Lewis leads the Tigers offensive attack. Lewis has put up 1644 yards with 17 total touchdowns and just four interceptions while leading the Tigers to their 7-1 start.
Having said that, Memphis lives and dies by the run. Ryan Silverfield’s squad runs the ball on over 55% of snaps, and are extremely successful at it. All three of Lewis, and running backs Greg Desrosiers Jr and Sutton Smith have run for over 400 yards, with the backs both averaging over 6 yards per carry.
As a whole, the Tigers average 5.2 yards per carry and a whopping 206 yards per game. That rushing success has them first in the country in both EPA per rush and EPA per play on early downs, which allows the play-action game to go nuclear. Behind Lewis and their dominant rushing game, the Tigers are 11th in the country in offensive EPA per drive.
On the defensive side, the Tigers are giving up only 21 points, while sitting 84th in total defensive EPA. Memphis secondary is a huge strengt,h allowing just 6.7 yards per pass while picking off 11 interceptions and returning two for touchdowns.
If Memphis gets out to an early lead, it will be a long Halloween night for the Owls. The Tigers are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games and 7-1 ATS in their last eight.
Rice Betting Trends
Rice is getting knocked around like a boxer past his prime. The Owls were smashed by UTSA 61-13 in Week 7 before bouncing back to life with a home win over UConn last week. Scott Abell’s squad is just 1-3 SU in conference play thus far, but they are 3-1 ATS.
The Owls rarely throw the football and rely almost exclusively on the run with their triple-option attack. In fact, Rice run the ball at the fourth highest rate in the country (73%), while passing for an FBS-worst 102 yards per game. As such, running back Quinton Jackson leads the way for this unit, with 655 rushing yards on the year.
Rice will either live or die by the success or their rushing attack on Friday night, and that’s a dangerous place to be against a Memphis Tigers team that has eyes on the College Football Playoff.
The Owls defense (78th in EPA per play allowed) is good enough to keep them in this conference matchup, but if the offense can’t move the football, this Memphis vs Rice showdown has blowout potential.
Keep an eye on the total here, as the the over has hit in four of Rice’s last five home games.
Memphis vs Rice Odds
The Memphis vs Rice total sits at 48.5 with the over and under even at -110. The Tigers are 13.5-point favorites for this AAC matchup in the college football odds.
According to the college football public betting splits, 96% of moneyline wagers are on Memphis, but 69% of spread wagers are on Rice.
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Odds as of October 30th at FanDuel. Find the best college football betting apps for Memphis vs Rice.
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