- Ohio State looks to go 8-0 after a meeting with Penn State
- The Nittany Lions haven’t beaten the Buckeyes in Columbus since 2011
- See our Penn State vs Ohio State Prediction, Pick & Updated Line for Big Noon Kickoff
Outside of entering this Week 10 matchup off their bye, there isn’t much these two teams share in common. Penn State and Ohio State are heading in completely opposite directions.
The Buckeyes are seeking their eighth straight win of the season, while the Nittany Lions (3-4) are simply hoping to stay competitive and avoid another embarrassing loss.
Kickoff is set for Noon ET at the Horseshoe in Columbus, Ohio, with FOX carrying the coverage.
Penn State vs Ohio State Prediction
This matchup has all the makings of a blowout. Penn State enters as a broken team with a backup quarterback facing the nation’s best defense, while Ohio State is firing on all cylinders and looking to make a statement at home.
Nittany Lions’ Season Derailed
It’s been 14 years since the Nittany Lions overcame the Buckeyes in Columbus, and more likely than not, that streak will extend to 15 after Saturday’s matchup.
Penn State’s season has done a complete 180 from what was expected in the preseason. Big Ten Conference and National Championship aspirations were alive and convincing – until three straight losses derailed those hopes and ultimately cost James Franklin his job.
The Nittany Lions also lost starting quarterback Drew Allar for the season, which forced redshirt freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer into his first collegiate start in Week 8 at Iowa. Grunkemeyer completed 15 of 28 passes for 93 yards, two interceptions and no touchdowns.
The Hawkeyes won 25-24, though the score shouldn’t have been that close. Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz made a boneheaded decision to attempt a 66-yard field goal before halftime – despite his kicker missing a much shorter attempt earlier – which led to a blocked kick and a Penn State touchdown.
My point being: Penn State did not perform nearly as well as the final score suggests.
Buckeyes Rolling Behind Sayin
On the other side, Ohio State’s most recent outing was a 34-0 shutout in Madison against Wisconsin—and they looked every bit as dominant as that score indicates.
Sophomore quarterback Julian Sayin strengthened his Heisman resume, completing 85.7% of his 42 pass attempts for 393 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. On the season, Sayin’s completing 80% of his passes with 19 touchdowns, just three picks and over 1,800 yards.
Sayin hasn’t needed to do much more, largely because of how elite his defense has been. Ohio State leads the nation in total defense, allowing just 5.9 points, 3.81 yards per play and 217 total yards per game.
That’s the type of defense Ethan Grunkemeyer will have to look forward to facing on Saturday.
Nittany Lions vs Buckeyes Picks
With Penn State’s offense in shambles and Ohio State’s defense playing at an elite level, there’s value in targeting specific prop bets. These two plays offer the best odds of hitting based on recent trends and matchup advantages.
- Ohio State Team Total Over 31.5 (+100)
- Penn State Under 263.5 Total Yards (-114)
Bet $1 & Double Your Winnings On Your First 20 Wagers!
Why Ohio State Goes Over
Quick and frequent three-and-out possessions will continue to put the ball back in the hands of Sayin and this Ohio State offense.
The Buckeyes, especially coming off their bye week, should have no issues moving the ball against a Penn State defense that ranks 59th in overall success rate and 86th in rush success rate allowed. Penn State also ranks 64th in third-down success rate defensively, struggling to get off the field.
On paper, the Nittany Lions are allowing just over 19 points per game this season, but if you exclude the three early non-conference blowouts, that average jumps to 29.8 points per contest.
Coach Ryan Day will keep his foot on the pedal for as long as possible. These two teams have a real disdain for each other, and it doesn’t matter how weakened Penn State is – Day’s going to be relentless.
Day will likely want to help Sayin continue padding his stats to strengthen his Heisman resume as well. I expect the Buckeyes to have plenty of scoring opportunities, capitalize on them and go over 31.5 total points.
Fading Penn State’s Offense
Another bet I like is a bit unique. FanDuel offers a market on Penn State’s total yards gained, which is set surprisingly high at 263.5 (-114).
Ohio State has the best defense in the country and is coming off extra prep time to face a backup quarterback who looked lost in his first start and an offense that’s been dreadful all season. Several stronger Big Ten offenses have failed to reach this mark against the Buckeyes:
- Washington (234)
- Minnesota (162)
- Wisconsin (144)
If the Nittany Lions prove me wrong and actually show life offensively, so be it. But this line seems ridiculous, and I’m looking to take advantage of it.
Penn State vs Ohio State Updated Line
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Friday, October 31st at 10:00 pm ET. Grab a FanDuel promo code to bet on PSU vs OSU.
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