- A win puts Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game
- Michigan has won the last four in this rivalry
- Read below for my Ohio State vs Michigan prediction and a look back at the game’s line movement
The undefeated No.1 Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0, 8-0 in the Big Ten) head to Ann Arbor to face their top rival in the No.15 Michigan Wolverines (9-2, 7-1 in the Big Ten). Michigan Stadium will play host to The Game at noon ET on Nov. 29. FOX will broadcast Ohio State vs Michigan.
I have finalized my Ohio State vs Michigan prediction and laid out my best bets for The Game.
Ohio State vs Michigan Prediction
- Ohio State 27, Michigan 17
I predict Ohio State to snap Michigan’s rivalry winning streak and condemn the Wolverines to a non-CFP bowl game. Ohio State would cap a perfect regular season and lock in a date with Indiana in the Big Ten Title Game.
Ohio State vs Michigan Line
The books have Ohio State as multi-score favorites for The Game. The Ohio State vs Michigan line for the total is set between 43.5 and 44 points. Over bettors can get over 43.5 at bet365 for -110 odds. Under bettors can get under 44 at Fanatics for -110 odds.
Ohio State opened as 12.5-point favorites, but now Buckeye bettors can get them as low as -9.5 on ESPNBet (-115 odds). Michigan bettors do not have quite as much value as they did early in the week, but Wolverine bettors can get them at +10.5 on FanDuel (-115 odds). Ohio State can be had on the moneyline at -375 on Fanatics, while Michigan is +330 on FanDuel.
Ohio State Analysis
11-0 with 10 straight double-digit wins, few teams in college football history have been as dominant as the Buckeyes. The have a juggernaut offense, scoring just shy of 38 points per game, but the defense is a sight to behold at a minuscule 7.6 points allowed per game. Can the Buckeyes win back-to-back titles?
Heisman hopeful Julian Sayin has been a breakout star in college football. He leads the country in completion percentage and passing efficiency. He has a robust 27 passing touchdowns to just four interceptions on the season.
Ohio State’s running game has been up and down this season, but freshman Bo Jackson has taken the initiative in recent weeks. He has at least 75 rushing yards in four straight games with a trio of 100-yard performances. He is likely to crack 1,000 rushing yards at some point in Ohio State’s postseason – either in the Big Ten title game or in the Buckeyes’ first CFP game.
Consider for a moment that Carnell Tate is a likely top-20 pick in the upcoming draft, and he is the second-bestOhio State receiver. Tate had 39 catches for 711 yards and seven touchdowns in eight games, leading the Big Ten with 18.2 yards per catch. Jeremiah Smith is the best receiver in the country and a contender to be the No.1 pick in the 2027 draft. He has 69 catches for 902 yards and a conference-leading 10 receiving touchdowns.
Defensively, the Buckeyes have two potential top-10 picks and several other potential first-rounders. I will spotlight safety Caleb Downs, arguably the best player in the 2026 class. The All-American is elite at every aspect of playing the position, and he is a statsheet stuffer. He has 5.0 tackles for a loss, a sack, two picks, and an additional pass deflection.
Michigan Analysis
Sherrone Moore’s crew has been ranked all but one week this season. This is the third time the Wolverines have been No.15 in the country, losing both of the previous times. However, Michigan is at home, and its CFP lives are on the line. With a win, Michigan has a strong at-large candidacy as they would have the best win in the country.
Bryce Underwood has had a solid season, particularly for a true freshman. He has 14 total touchdowns with five interceptions. His accuracy has been spotty at times, but he is a productive ground threat when the Wolverines call upon him. If there was ever a week to use that threat, it is this week.
With no Justice Haynes this week, it will be Jordan Marshall‘s time to shine again. Marshall has four games in a row with 100 rushing yards and a touchdown, carrying the Wolverines since their loss to USC. The sophomore will likely crack 1,000 rushing yards in Michigan’s next game after Ohio State.
Not as decrepit as other seasons, the Wolverines have a solid pair of receivers in Andrew Marsh and Donaven McCulley. Marsh leads the team with 42 catches and 641 yards. Both receivers have three touchdowns, and McCulley has caught 32 passes for 488 yards.
The Michigan run defense is as good as it gets in college football. The point of the spear is the edge, Jaishawn Barham. He has 10.0 tackles for a loss this season, and his PFF run-defense grade is a tick below being elite. Barham is no slouch as a pass rusher, recording 4.0 sacks, deflecting three passes, and forcing a fumble.
Ohio State vs Michigan Best Bets
- Over 43.5
Here is why I am taking Over 43.5 in this ultimate rivalry game:
- While both teams have top-flight defenses, Ohio State is the best offense has faced this season. Michigan has allowed 20 points in three of its last four games, while Ohio State has scored at least 34 in seven straight contests.
- The strength of the Michigan defense is its run defense. While I think they will do a good job against the likes of Bo Jackson, the combination of Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith/Carnell Tate should keep a one-dimensional Buckeyes offense on track.
- Ohio State -9.5
I expect Ohio State to break its losing streak to Michigan, here is why I am also taking them to cover -9.5:
- Ohio State is an impossible 9-1-1 against the spread this season. They matched the spread in a 28-point win over Ohio, and their lone loss ATS was a 24-point win over +29.5 Purdue.
- Michigan is 0-2 as an underdog this season, losing by double digits to both Oklahoma and USC. Michigan is an underwhelming 4-7 ATS.
Ohio State vs Michigan, Recent History
Michigan holds the lifetime edge 62-51-6, winning each of the last four games. Ohio State had dominated previously, losing just once between 2004 and 2019. With a win on Saturday, Michigan would have its longest winning streak over Ohio State since 1922-1928.
Last season, a five-loss Michigan team came into the Shoe and shocked the then-No.2 Buckeyes. While Ohio State turned it around to win the CFP (and preserve Ryan Day’s job), Michigan was able to maintain bragging rights.
In the game, Michigan made a last-minute field goal after a slog of a defensive game. Kalel Mullings ran for 116 yards and a touchdown for the victoryous Wolverines. On the Ohio State side, Will Howard struggled, throwing a pair of picks, but he did find Jeremiah Smith for Ohio State’s lone touchdown.
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