- Navy needs some help to make the American Title Game
- Will Memphis bounce back after back-to-back conference losses?
- Read below for my Navy vs Memphis prediction and pick, as well as the line for this Thursday CFB serving of Thanksgiving football
The Navy Midshipmen (8-2, 6-1 in the American) and Memphis Tigers (8-3, 4-3 in the American) battle for conference superiority. Navy still has a path to the American Title Game, but it would require a loss by Tulane or North Texas. Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium plays host to a 7:30 PM ET kickoff on Thursday, Nov. 27. ESPN will broadcast the game.
I have locked in my Navy vs Memphis prediction and pick for this Thursday CFB clash. Let’s dive in.
Navy vs Memphis Prediction
- Memphis 35, Navy 28
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I predict Memphis to pull out a narrow Thanksgiving win in a high-scoring game to essentially eliminate* Navy from the American race. Both teams are among the top 35 in points per game, and I expect Thursday to be no different.
*With a loss, Navy would have to win a tiebreaker with the other 6-2 (conference) teams in the American, requiring at least one of North Texas and Tulane to lose.
Navy Midshipmen Analysis
Navy has had another strong season under coach Brian Newberry. With two wins in their remaining games, Navy would clinch back-to-back 10-win seasons for the first time in program history. They opened the season 7-0 before stumbling to North Texas and Notre Dame in consecutive weeks. However, the Midshipmen stunned No. 25 USF to stay alive in the American (and CFP) race in their most recent game.
Navy has only averaged 14.4 pass attempts per game, but Blake Horvath is solid when called upon. In nine games, he has 1,290 yards (10.6 yards per pass) with eight touchdowns and five interceptions. His superpower, of course, is his absurd rushing production: just shy of 110 yards per game and 13 touchdowns.
This will come as no surprise, but Navy’s rushing attack is as good as it gets in college football. Navy has averaged over 300 rushing yards per game, averaging 6.4 yards per carry and 3.5 touchdowns per game. Five different players have at least 350 rushing yards. Alex Tecza is second to Horvath in attempts, yards, and touchdowns.
Eli Heidenreich, listed as a fullback by some sources, is the primary weapon in the passing attack. He has 38 catches for 741 yards and four receiving touchdowns, more than doubling the next closest in catches and yards.
On defense, watch for Coleman Cauley. He leads the American with three forced fumbles, and he has 2.5 tackles for a loss and an interception from his linebacker position.
The Memphis Tigers
After a 6-0 start, Memphis was ranked No. 22 in the AP Poll with a trip to a decrepit UAB squad on the docket. Memphis shockingly lost, but they quickly bounced back with a win over No. 18 USF. After a win over Rice, Memphis was back to No. 22 in the polls, but they lost to Tulane then East Carolina to torpedo their American chances.
Brendon Lewis is one of the better dual-threat quarterbacks in the country. As a passer, he leads the conference with a 71.7% completion rate. He has 22 total touchdowns and six interceptions. He is second on the Tigers in rushing yards and leads the team with nine rushing touchdowns.
The duo of Sutton Smith and Gregory Desrosiers is among the best in the country. Smith has been more efficient (6.7 yards per carry to 5.8), but both backs have scored seven rushing touchdowns. Desrosiers has contributed 28 catches for 209 yards and a touchdown in the receiving game as well.
Cortez Braham is one of the best receivers in the American. He has 59 catches for 824 yards and seven touchdowns. The former West Virginia and Nevada wide receiver is top five in the conference in the triple crown stats.
The Tigers have a pair of conference-leading defensive studs. Sam Brumfield leads the American with 13.0 tackles for a loss. Chris Bracy leads the conference with eight pass deflections. That said, Memphis’ defense has surrendered 31 or more points in four of their last five games.
Navy vs Memphis Pick
- Over 57.5
Here is why I am taking Over 57.5 in this American battle:
- On the Memphis side, the over has hit in four straight games with 58 or more points coming in three of the four games. In Navy games, the over is a preposterous 8-2 with a number as high as 63.5 being covered.
- Memphis games feature 58.2 points per game despite a competent Memphis defense. The Tigers have the No. 17 scoring offense in FBS. Navy games feature even more points—60.8 points per game—as the Midshipmen have the No. 33 offense and No. 92 defense.
- Usually, a battle between elite rushing attacks would lend itself to a lower-scoring game, but both teams are incredibly explosive on the ground. Navy has 87 runs of 10+ yards while Memphis has 73 runs of 10+ yards. Both teams have four individual players with at least 10 explosive runs.
Navy vs Memphis Line
The sportsbooks have Memphis as a solid home favorite for this Thanksgiving tango. The Navy vs Memphis line for the total is set between 57.5 and 58.5 points. Over bettors can get over 57.5 at FanDuel for -115 odds. Under bettors can get under 58.5 on ESPNBet for -115 odds.
Memphis bettors can get the Tigers at -3.5 on the spread at DraftKings (-112 odds) or -165 on the moneyline at ESPNBet. Navy bettors can get the Midshipmen at +5 on the spread at BetRivers (-122 odds) or +157 on the moneyline at Underdog.
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Odds as of November 26, 2025, at consensus college football betting apps. Make sure you check out the best online sportsbook to bet on Thursday CFB.
Navy vs Memphis History
Memphis holds the lifetime edge in this series, winning six of 10 matchups. The American schools have played in each of the last 10 seasons, coinciding with Navy’s move to the American conference.
Last season, Navy snapped Memphis’ five-game series winning streak with a 56-44 win. Navy quarterback Blake Horvath had a game for the ages with over 400 total yards and a ridiculous six touchdowns. Memphis, to its credit, had over 650 yards of total offense with quarterback Seth Henigan tallying exactly 400 total yards.
The offensive fireworks in last season’s meeting have me forecasting another high-scoring affair in my Navy vs Memphis prediction.
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