- #1 Ohio State faces #15 Michigan in the latest installment of The Game on Saturday
- Julian Sayin has thrown 2+ TD passes in eight of his last 10 games
- See below for my Ohio State vs Michigan player props and parlay picks for Week 14
College football’s biggest rivalry writes a new chapter on Saturday as #1 Ohio State (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten) faces #15 Michigan (9-2, 7-1 Big Ten). This will be one of the most heavily bet matchups of the season, and is sure to draw a ton of action in the player props market. Online sportsbooks have pegged the Buckeyes as heavy favorites in the latest college football odds, and the best way for them to build margin is through star quarterback Julian Sayin.
I’m targeting Saying’s passing touchdowns over/under as one of my favorite Ohio State vs Michigan props, while also fading Wolverines running back Jordan Marshall.
Here are my best player prop bets and parlay picks for this year’s edition of The Game.
Ohio State vs Michigan Player Props
Sayin checks in with a passing TD prop of 1.5, a full touchdown higher than Michigan QB Bryce Underwood. He projects for 83 more passing yards than Underwood, and should find success against a Wolverines secondary that is underwhelming at best.
Be sure to also read our Final Ohio State vs Michigan Prediction, line movement and best bets.
Ohio State vs Michigan Player Props Bet #1: Julian Sayin TD Passes
Sayin needs a ceiling game performance to bolster his chances in the Heisman Trophy odds. The top-three favorite has been incredible this season for Ohio State, throwing for over 2,800 yards, with a 27-to-4 TD-to-INT rate. He is the highest rated quarterback in the country per PFF, boasting a ridiculous 93.2 passing grade, with a 9.4 yards per attempt average.
Saying has exceeded 1.5 TD passes in eight of his last 10 starts, and the Wolverines pass defense is the weakest unit on the field for either side. Michigan is outside the top-44 in opponent completion percentage and passing yards allowed per game, while grading out 46th in coverage.
Also working in Sayin’s favor, is the Buckeyes terrific 1-2 punch of Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. Both of the Ohio State receivers have recovered from their respective injuries and are ready to roll. The duo have combined for 108 catches and 17 TD so far this season, and will exploit big mismatches against the Michigan secondary.
Ohio State vs Michigan Player Props Bet #2: Jordan Marshall Rushing Yards
While the Wolverines pass defense is the easiest matchup to exploit, there’s no weak link on the Buckeyes defense. Ohio State leads the nation in scoring defense, yards per play and opponent red zone scoring percentage, and are virtually impossible to run against.
Ohio State Defense Stats
The Buckeyes are yielding just 2.6 yards per carry, and 78.6 rushing yards per game. They grade out third in PFF’s run defense metrics, and seventh in tackling. That’s bad news for Michigan’s Jordan Marshall, who enters on a quite a roll.
The sophomore back has ran for 110+ yards in four straight games. It’s one thing to beat up on Northwestern, Purdue, Michigan State and Washington, but this Ohio State run defense is a whole different beast.
Marshall will likely see plenty of volume early, but his efficiency is going to be low. The Buckeyes don’t allow explosive plays period, and Michigan isn’t going to be able to stay patient and stick with the run game as heavy underdogs.
Ohio State vs Michigan Parlay
Moving over to my Ohio State vs Michigan parlay picks, where I’m adding under 23.5 first half points to my two player prop selections to produce a juicy +577 SGP ticket.
The Buckeyes don’t allow points to anyone, while the Wolverines have sputtered against quality competition early. In their only two losses, Michigan scored a combined 7 points versus Oklahoma and USC in the opening half.
Even if the Wolverines manage to move the football, getting into the end zone is a rare feat against the National Championship odds favorite. Ohio State has allowed only 19 red zone trips all season, and just seven of those have been converted into touchdowns.
Despite an underwhelming pass defense, Michigan is still a top-15 defense by plenty of metrics. They rank 13th in scoring defense and yards per play, and 38th in opponent third down conversion rate. I expect both teams to start slow, making the first half under a no brainer leg to my parlay.
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